How - and why - West Ham must strengthen this summer

I doubt what I’m about to say will be popular amongst my fellow fans, but it should highlight the truth behind last season and how we must strengthen during the transfer window.

With that disclaimer out of the way, I’ll just come out with it - we were not as good as you think we were.

Before you close the tab and refuse to visit KUMB.com ever again, please let me explain why. Some of you may be aware of the concept of expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA). (If you aren’t, a decent introduction may be found here.) The mapping of chances and their relative potential for goals is not an exact science but may be used as an incredibly interesting tool for predicting long-term trends and recognising short-term anomalies.

Leicester undoubtedly stole the limelight over the past 12 months, and much like the champions, we also experienced an average possession of less than 50%. The exceptional counter-attacking ability demonstrated by both sides won widespread praise and resulted in a plethora of ‘giant killings’ (I’ll let you decide whether Liverpool and Chelsea truly fall into this category).

It seems like common sense to suggest that if the season was played over again we may not be as successful as we ultimately were. Late winners and long shots are emotive, but hardly sustainable. The examination of the expected goal stats can help quantify how fortuitous we were.

Cast your mind back to August and the opening day win at the Emirates. Cheik Kouyate’s header was ecstasy-inducing (despite an uncharacteristically ‘flappy’ Petr Cech), Reece Oxford announced himself on the biggest stage, and Dimitri Payet ruled supreme. However, the nail in Arsenal’s coffin was Mauro Zarate’s wonderful low strike.

The graph below shows the location of all of Mauro’s shots on target throughout his unfortunate half of the season. The gold circles indicate which of these resulted in goals, and the blues in saves. The highlighted shot is the low drive past Cech.

Using @dannypage’s xG model we can see that this should only ripple the net 10.6% of the time. Remember Moses’ goal against Man City? Should that normally beat a 'keeper of Hart’s quality?



It feels sacrilegious to attribute such hard earned victories to chance. It’s true that the goals would be unlikely to reoccur time and time again, but we held on and battled hard to see out those fixtures. Many dismiss such analytics as taking the soul from the beautiful game. Yet, it can be vital for clubs in recognising the true value of their stars.

For some reason, as the season entered its final third we decided to start defending like particularly inept schoolboys. Luckily the moment that our defenders decided to collectively give up and declare "meh", Andy Carroll had become bored of being injured and fancied doing some work for his substantial wage. Compare his xG map to that of Zarate.



Andy Carroll’s shots on target, 2015/16


In many ways the grouping in and around the penalty area shows a return to the style so often associated with Allardyce. Yes, there was more flair and ingenuity in the build up play, but the end result was the same. Pump the ball into big Andy and let him leap. This won us more points than many would care to admit.

Unfortunately this leads to the most controversial question of the article – can we really rely on Payet to keep saving our bacon?

Payet was unbelievably good this season in front of goal and he must surely be rated as the best free kick taker in the world. Yet he was ultimately too good - by which I mean he was too good for his form to continue into the future.

No player in the league bettered his xG conversion rate (you can find a full breakdown here ). If you can’t be bothered to follow that link and scroll all the way down to 50th(!) place, his xG efficiency was 1.64, meaning that he scored 1.6 goals for every one that could normally be expected.

On the surface it is easy to use such stats to suggest that he is among the best players in the world, but this figure should be a cause for concern. Payet has never come close to this in his career so far, and even players like Ronaldo and Messi can’t compare. I hope more than anything than Dimitri can keep up his incredible form, but Bilic and the board must prepare for the eventuality that he might not.

Whilst Payet may be lucky with his shooting, he is undoubtedly world-class in regards dribbling and assists - as he has continued to show for France at Euro 16. It is this skill that should be utilised by Sullivan, et al.



Dimitri Payet’s passing masterclass


There has been a lot of talk about Theo Walcott possibly joining West Ham, and this interest has been widely condemned by fans. It’s true that in front of goal he’d struggle to finish one of the Rib Man’s rolls, but a genuine trait of his game that’s often overlooked is his creative ability.



Football’s greatest partnerships (courtesy of deepxg.com)


Walcott’s partnerships with Olivier Giroud and Robin van Persie had the potential to be truly exceptional. Imagine that productive capacity down the wing coupled with Payet’s genius and Lanzini’s trickery?

Carroll would be a brilliant addition from the bench, but a disruptive, efficient striker could be lethal in this system. Chicharito for example, a player we were linked with last year, has been utilised to a similar, devastating effect by Leverkusen and Mexico.

Despite my grumblings and vocal concerns I am cautiously optimistic about the upcoming season. The Olympic Stadium and subsequent advantages has the potential to propel us into being a regular top six team. The reputation of the club will grow and European football will attract the players that we may have to depend on…

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