Official Betting Thread

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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby Ifcukin8chelsea on Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:06 pm

Great Start!

Spain to win 1 - 0 5/1

Spain to score a goal between 60 - 75 mins 10/3

Silva to score and Spain to win 5/1
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby lake1986 on Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:30 pm

Got Torres as top goalscorer for the tournament at 14/1 @ £20.

Unless he scores another in next 5 mins there will be 6 players including torres on 3 goals.

Any idea what happens with the bet, is it 1/6 of the odds?
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby Dyl on Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:34 pm

i think joint top scorer counts. I've never heard that they have to be outright on their own
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby screech on Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:48 pm

lake1986 wrote:Got Torres as top goalscorer for the tournament at 14/1 @ £20.

Unless he scores another in next 5 mins there will be 6 players including torres on 3 goals.

Any idea what happens with the bet, is it 1/6 of the odds?

Congrats mate! Torres gets the golden boot to himself, it goes on goals scored, then minutes on the pitch and also assists count
Torres got 3 goals and 1 assist in the fewest minutes played so he wins
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby k-r-c on Sun Jul 01, 2012 10:41 pm

Thats not how it works on Paddy Power.

Top Goalscorer dead heat
With the Top Goalscorer market it is possible for two or more players to be deemed winners having finished with the same number of goals. In this event a dead heat is applied to all winning selections. The stake is divided by the number of players tied for Top Goalscorer and paid out at the full odds.

Example: You back Fernando Torres to be top goalscorer at 18/1, £10.00 stake. There are 6 players tied for first place. Therefore your stake is divided by 6 and paid at 18/1 which is 1.66 at 18/1. Winnings = £31.67 Please note: Goals scored in extra-time count for Top Goalscorer markets but goals scored in penaly shootouts do not count.
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby lake1986 on Mon Jul 02, 2012 6:05 am

dead heat rules applied so £20 @14/1 only returned £50 including stake :(
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby davids cross on Mon Jul 02, 2012 8:13 am

screech wrote:Congrats mate! Torres gets the golden boot to himself, it goes on goals scored, then minutes on the pitch and also assists count
Torres got 3 goals and 1 assist in the fewest minutes played so he wins


Would only be applicable on a "Golden Boot" market though screech.

The Top Goalscorer Market is different.

Bad luck in some ways for lake 1986, but fair imo. Means you do have to think about what the name of the market is and what rules apply to it.
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby rare as rockinghorse shat on Mon Jul 02, 2012 8:54 am

Overall young rider classification

Result after the stage 1
Total distance covered: 198 km

rank rider rider No. team times gap

1. USAVAN GARDEREN Tejay 9 BMC RACING TEAM 05h 05' 42''
2. NORBOASSON HAGEN Edvald 102 SKY PROCYCLING 05h 05' 43'' + 00' 01''

Fingers crossed :)
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby davids cross on Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:39 am

Poor old Bradley,

If only he knew that as he zooms past our watching position...... we are not cheering him but instead his close confidant Edvald.

Go Ed :lol:
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby rare as rockinghorse shat on Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:04 am

:lol:

Did you stick a little on him then, DC?
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby davids cross on Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:34 am

£2.50 E/W at 50s...

Given the price I think he might be riding a penny farthing........ :lol:
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby davids cross on Mon Jul 02, 2012 11:02 am

Ed is now 20-1 in places, 33-1 others, best priced 40-1 with Boyles.

Six firms doing E/W the first two, third of the odds. Betfair going 33s but only a win market I think.
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby rare as rockinghorse shat on Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:09 pm

I got on 66 with Boyle, now 40s, as you say.

In theory, DC, say I had backed him @ 66 for about a fiver on Betfair, what do you reckon I would have made in profit for laying him now at 33?
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby sicknote on Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:11 pm

anyone seen the runners for Ponntefract 6 pm race

Image Sir Trevor and come in from 14 to 1 to 8 to 1 this morning
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby James P on Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:14 pm

rare as rockinghorse shat wrote:In theory, DC, say I had backed him @ 66 for about a fiver on Betfair, what do you reckon I would have made in profit for laying him now at 33?


You could take a fixed profit of £4.89 after your 5% comes off.
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby rare as rockinghorse shat on Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:30 pm

How do you work that out?

Isn't it dependant on how much money there are for other runners and at what odds they are at?
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby psychoscoredthelot on Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:39 pm

£1.67 left in account

put it on all the favourites in an accumulator at wimbledon to net £4,64 return !!!
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby Dyl on Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:47 pm

rare as rockinghorse shat wrote::lol:

Did you stick a little on him then, DC?



i put £25 on @ 66/1

as you say, fingers crossed...
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby James P on Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:50 pm

rare as rockinghorse shat wrote:How do you work that out?

Isn't it dependant on how much money there are for other runners and at what odds they are at?


On Betfair because you're simply laying the same outcome you've backed, the price of other runners and riders are completely irrelevant.

I've got a spreadsheet which works it all out but it's only mildly complex.

To work out your fixed profit when odds change, simply take the total return you'll receive from your initial bet if you win (stake plus winnings) and divide it by the new odds. This will tell you how much stake you should accept at the new odds. You then take the original stake you backed from the amount of stake you will lay and this will give you your gross profit. Then times that by 0.95 for your net profit after the 5% charge.

So if you put on £5 at 67.0, your total return would be £335 if it wins. The odds are now 34.0 so divide 335 by 34 and you get £9.85 which is the amount of stake you should lay. Take £5 from £9.85 and your gross profit is £4.85. After your 5% charge you'll have £4.61 (I made a mistake in my first post as I divided by 33.0 and not 34.0 which is only 32/1).
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby davids cross on Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:39 pm

Rars,

I'll defer to what James said as his profit sounds about right without working it out myself.

The theory behind your bet ( making a nice profit) would only be worthwhile if the price lowers much further. 66-1, down to 33s sounds a big drop, but I would only (personally) start thinking about it if it reaches 10s or lower. Then you would be looking at around the £25-30 sort of mark. (ball park)..

Eds actual "lay" price is 46, so wouldn't be worth it.

He is down to 25 to "back" though.... :D The disparity between the two is because it is a market with little money in it and few people active in it.
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