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Postby FDiMcA on Sun Dec 15, 2002 8:37 pm

I am starting this thread the day after West Ham were tossed aside at Old Trafford. I have no real problem with loosing to the team that may well end up as Champions of England and Europe within 6 months. I certainly doubt any book makers were surprised that it was a home win for the Red Devils. What does itch at my pride is that Gareth from the BBC's Office series (otherwise known as Glen Roeder) is smuggly fawning over Man U. To listen to the Roedent the reason there is 'no-shame' in the result is that Manchester United are some sort of combination of the Dallas Cowboys, Muhamed Ali, The Harlem Globetrotters, The S.A.S, Our Man Flint, Desert Orchid, and of course Man U. Well O.K. Ratty I'll accept that, but what about West Ham United?

West Ham have a fine tradition of bashing seven bells out of GREAT Man U teams - not always leading to a positive result, but even some of our battling draws with them have entered folklore let alone the spirited defeats. Oi! Roeder why did we not have a shot on target untill the 82nd minute? (at which point Man U were wearing training bibs and attempting to draw the dead home audience into a game of 'aplaud-each-pass-in-a-30-pass-move'). No Bookmaker, fan or West Ham manager can loose too much sleep over a defeat at Old Tarrford - but whats being dripping bile into my bowls this hung-over Sunday is that West Ham went there thinking about next weeks game.
SPIN SPIN SPIN SPIN SPIN
Once agian valiant Ian Pearce was stuck up front (That makes the last 200mins with a centre-half at centre-forward). Surley the only reason to continue with this George Grahamesque Abomination is the spin: You cant blame Roeder he has had to play Ian Pearce as a striker etc, etc, etc, etc.
(A few facts for the record: i) The team doctor told Roeder DiCanio should NOT play on an injury, Roeder refused to sub-him. ii) Kanoute having played in reserve games has not made it back to the first-team having agrevated injurys in hard training taken by Roeder iii) Roeder sold the gem Todorov to Portsmouth in the summer having publiclly slated the quality of our second string players. iv) During the last transfer window Roeder announced West Ham were a striker short and that he had the player for this and the deal would be done in time (Nothing Happned) v) Titi Camara.
As if to re-inforce the 'its not my fault' spin, Roeder bought Moncur on as sub implying that the old warhorse was his only option.
Again at Man U the first choice left back was too old/knackred to play, the defence was re-jigged as best defender Ian Pearce went up-front, Sinclair was played on the wrong wing, Carrick and Cole suffred at the hands of Lomas, and Defoe was expected to burst through a defence compacted by Ian Pearce. LAdy Luck is not to blame these are the actions of a man.
The Spin went into overdrive pre-match ignoring the FACT Roeder has failed to sign a mid-field general to lead Cole and Carrick, and that the likes of Hutchison and DiCanio were 'out' due to Roeders medical regime. The Rat got all dewey eyed about how he had made Cole Captain. We also had the ridiculous naming of Rios little brother on the bench despite the fact he is inferior to Irekpen and the loaned out Johnson "let the fans know Ive got them the NEW RIO" was the brazen sub text.
So what do we take away from Old Trafford?

Roeder again played "no shame in loosing" at his post match conference
What West Ham needed from his pre-match talk was you have nothing to loose"

Here we are an odd 24hrs later and the teams that could save The Academy by taking their place on the Relegation Express have not read the script. Birmingham have stuck it up Fulham, and boring boring Sunderland have been handed 3 points by broing boring boring Liverpool.

The biggest worry for West Ham is not that battling teams like Sunderland are capable of getting the odd win, it is that the senior
likes of Roeder and Lomas are incapable of battling.

So West Ham are obviously Dooooomed. The manager is not interested in avoiding relegation - he is just interested in preparing his excuses.
1 Home game away from completing the first half of the season and West Ham are on 13 points. Why considering they havent won at home all season I dont know - but lets guess they win that game. That would be 16 points from half the games; 32 points for the season.

32 POINTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

=====================
A Season of two-halfs
+++++++++++++++++++++

Obviously West Ham will loose away to Man U, but would a bookmaker seriously expect West Ham to spend a whole season with NO HOME WINS ? Or even just 1?
It is highly unlikely even with Rodentism still in place that West Ham will do as badly in the next 19 games.
If you give West Ham an arbitrary points total to reach that should guarantee survival you have what appears to be an impossible task. Say the target is set at 45 points. West Ham would need at least 29 points from the last 19 games (Snookers is clearly not enough) But arguably some teams only just out of the drop-zone after 19 games will be on 18 points. Teams that are mathmatically out of relegation at the start of the 2nd half will need 26 points to stay safe.
Sunderland drenched in glory after beating Liverpool could be after 26 points from the last 19 games to stay where they are: SAFE. Ask a Bookmaker if thats likely?

After a short examination of points targets it becomes clear they are usefull only to journalists and spread betters.

West Ham are NOT in a solo attempt on a points record, they are in a race and there are at least 3 other runners.

When West Ham have avoided the drop re-read this thread. This thread is not here to steel your nerves through the 2nd half of the season, this thread is not here so I can chirp that I knew it all along, this thtread is not here to help you look that Tottenham fan in the eye and accept his bet. THIS THREAD IS HERE TO BEAR WITNESS THAT WHAT WEST HAM WILL ACHIEVE IN SURVIVING IN THE PREMIERSHIP IS A RELATIVLEY SIMPLE TASK. This thread by printing spin free facts and not opinions will show you that West Ham in surviving owe nothing to Glen Roeder or Lady Luck, That quiet simply the race over the 2nd half of season 02/03 was not an even race - West Ham enter it with many many advantages. Indeed ALL their rivals bar-none have been given a head-start. But then Man U can give Liverpool a head-start and be confident of finishing ahead, and the Bookies thought Man U and Liverpool were fairly evenly matched.
West Ham may have given their rivals a head-start but the race is not evenly matched.
When we are safe and people sugest to you Roeder turned it around think back to Old Trafford. The game which he not only didnt try to turn-around, but that he had given up on before it started.

GOODBYE TO SPIN.

=========================

Over to the Facts.
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Postby FDiMcA on Sun Dec 15, 2002 8:43 pm

Post 1 pre-season:

A) West Ham are in the relegation zone.

B) West Ham are 4 points and a positive 4 on to their goal difference away from being out of the relegation zone.

There is one game left before West Ham start the second half of season 02/03.

C) The next game is at home v Bolton. A SIX POINTER

Bolton will play Leeds before then.

D) The league table

team................ (GD)....Points

S Birmingham....(- 4).....+8
S Fulham...........(- 1).....+7
S Sunderland.....(-14).....+2
R West Brom.....(-14).....0
R Bolton............(-10).....-1
R West Ham......(-17).....-2

(Teams bubbling around table Villa, Leeds)

E) Upcoming Key matches

Bolton Wanderers v Leeds United
Birmingham City v Charlton Athletic
Newcastle United v Fulham
West Bromwich Albion v Sunderland 6 POINTER
West Ham United v Bolton Wanderers 6 POINTER
West Ham United v Fulham 6 POINTER
Bolton Wanderers v Newcastle United
West Bromwich Albion v Arsenal
Birmingham City v Everton
Sunderland v Leeds United
Blackburn Rovers v West Ham United
Charlton Athletic v West Bromwich Albion
Everton v Bolton Wanderers
Fulham v Manchester City
Manchester United v Birmingham City
Southampton v Sunderland


COMMENT:
Positive: West Ham have one of the easiest second half of a season fixture lists ever, Given West Hams fixture list over the 19 games they can be assured that most weeks at least one of their rivals will be playing a significantly tougher fixture.
West Ham can look forward to Kanoute, Winterburn, Cisse, and Hutchison bolstering the sqaud in the next few games. Later in the run-in DiCanio will be added to the side.
The other teams face tricky Xmas's and Birmingham particularly will have a long run of tough games.
After a disaterous home defeat to Brum, Fulham have made a shock entry into the relegation story. If they loose their next 2 games (away to Newcastle and then away to West Ham who have already beaten them once, and West Ham also beat Bolton ~ Fulham could be just 3 points ahead of todays bottom team West Ham with 18 games to go.

Negative: With home 6 pointers coming up fast West Ham can not afford to not win both games. Even a victory over Bolton may not see the Hammers avoid the sinister 'bottom at Xmas' subrioquet and if Fulham get anything away to Newcastle and West Ham they might be considred out of the relegation story. So the next 2 games really might decide the season. Loose them and relegation will seem to be a fore-gone conclusion, win them and Fulham and Bolton will be in the mire with West Ham riding a wave of positivism.
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Postby Un'Appy 'Ammer on Sun Dec 15, 2002 8:49 pm

top posts mate :) some excellent excellent points there
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Postby ashhammer on Sun Dec 15, 2002 9:07 pm

Great post printed it up and hope you are right!! But even if we do stay up I still want roeder out!

At gillingham he walked out and left the club fighting to stay in the league. Then went watford nearly made the play offs then next season sent them down leaving just before is he the one season wonder ?
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Postby Mick on Sun Dec 15, 2002 10:30 pm

Keep taking the tablets.

You are obviously not in the West Ham world of Roeder and Brown at the moment FDiMcA! :shock:
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Postby Amsterhammer on Sun Dec 15, 2002 11:57 pm

While I greatly admire and applaud your research and analysis Franko, :niceone: I unfortunately cannot bring myself to share your optimism :(

But I really, really do hope that you will be proved right by events to come!! :wink:
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Postby Andrew on Mon Dec 16, 2002 12:02 am

There are just too many if's and buts in there to gain any real confidence from it.

I shall only really think that we are safe whern i see a run of wins being put together.

I think we are possibly going down, but the next month will show us whether things can turn around.
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Postby Amsterhammer on Mon Dec 16, 2002 12:08 am

"I think we are possibly going down"???? You importing Brookingisms onto this board???? :lol: :lol:

Uh, I think that about sums up how I feel about our prospects too!!!! :cry:

But where I' really at is :seeth: :seeth: :seeth:

I'm off, evening all.
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Postby Northern Paulo on Mon Dec 16, 2002 12:28 pm

Hope you're right Franko, but I can't see how we are going to pick up enough wins. You've got to bank on some of those being drawn (thus 2 points dropped).
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Postby FDiMcA on Mon Dec 16, 2002 1:09 pm

oh agreed NP old pal - looking at us winning a few and its dire but look at our task compared to Sunderland and Boltons for example and we have hope.
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Postby Northern Paulo on Mon Dec 16, 2002 1:12 pm

True. I think Bolton and Sunderland will drop. That leaves WBA and (dare I say it) Leeeeeeds.

Like Brown I have, sad to say, prepared myself for the worst. Anything more will be a bonus.
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Postby FDiMcA on Mon Dec 16, 2002 1:20 pm

It is fairly popularly believed that West Ham will by an un-written law loose games to the likes of Reading and Oldham while easily beating teams like Aresnal and Man U. Although there is some sterngth to this argument 'perception' is affected by the magnitude of such events - as opposed to the scarcity of them. So that an isolated loss to Reading gnaws away at the collective conscioucness, having registred equally highly on the Richter scale as an unfortunatley rare win at Old Trafford. Although I am not dismissing the apparent trend out-right I am clear that it would be very difficult to quantify. Such that given a run of games of say Man U away followed by Bolton at home, most fans even those who swear by the un-written law would not back a win v Man U followed by a home defeat to Bolton.

It is with this in mind that I will seek to establish a handicaping system for the 2nd-half of the season
This is something which is extremley relevent.
Part of the point of this thread is to show that the task West Ham face in surviuiving is different from the task alloted to West Brom or Birmingham.
Over a season sure - all the teams play all the others home and away and a sort of equality of task is achieved. Over the coming 19 games that is not the case for example West Ham will not play Man U while Birmingham will play Man U twice in the coming games.

Idealy a handicaping system would be updated on a weekly basis - but I cant be arsed. Also a team like Chelsea who are not involved in Europe might be considred a much tougher proposition than a tem like Arsenal on the weekend before or after European games., but that is a very complex area to get in to. My handicapping system will be very simple and hence BLUNT i will not expect it to hold up on a match by match basis - but it should give us a rough guide as to the difficulty of games teams have yet to face. The race West Ham are in, is not a race of eqauls - the teams are competing over different courses and this handicapping should show roughly how the courses (Rather than the teams) compare.

Also within weeks the handicaping may seem daft Liverpool could be top and Fulham could be chasing Europe, but I will stick with a system based on the average ranking of the sides this week based on an average of the season so far.

COMPOSITION:

A Home fixture to a mid-table club:............ 0 points.
A Away fixture to a mid table club:............. 5 points

A Home fixture to a relegation zone club:.. .10 points
A Away fixture to relegation zone club:....... 15 points

A Home fixture to a team chasing Europe:.20 points
A Away fixture to a team chasing Europe...25 points

A Home fixture to a team chasing the title.. 30points
A Away fixture to a team chasing the title....35 points


Relegation zone teams:

Birmingham
Fulham
Aston Villa
Leeds
Sunderland
West Brom
Bolton
West Ham

mid-table:

Tottenham
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
Charlton
Man City


Europe:

Everton
Liverpool
Newcastle


Title:

Chelsea
Arsenal
Man U


This might seem pretty trivial but when everyone is rushing about the media saying Roeder turned it around it needs to be understood that the task he faced was not eqaul to those of other clubs.

Also a sort of handicaping should be used for teh sqauds - clearly any team getting a Hartson and Kitson package in the January window will have a massive advantage. The fact is this is too complex for me to work out and all of us know roughly the strength ofm ours and other sqauds. At the start of the season I doubt any UK manager would have selected any of the current drop zones sqauds over West Hams.

I WILL NEED A FEW DAYS TO HANDICAP ALL THE TEAMS

WEST HAM: 240

26-Dec-02 H Fulham fix 10
28-Dec-02 A Blackburn Rovers fix 5
01-Jan-03 A Charlton Athletic fix 5
11-Jan-03 H Newcastle United fix 20
19-Jan-03 A Arsenal fix 35
29-Jan-03 H Blackburn Rovers fix 0
02-Feb-03 H Liverpool fix 20
08-Feb-03 A Leeds United fix 15
22-Feb-03 A West Bromwich Albion fix 15
01-Mar-03 H Tottenham Hotspur fix 0
15-Mar-03 A Everton fix 25
22-Mar-03 H Sunderland fix 10
05-Apr-03 A Southampton fix 5
12-Apr-03 H Aston Villa fix 10
19-Apr-03 A Bolton Wanderers fix 15
21-Apr-03 H Middlesbrough fix 0
26-Apr-03 A Manchester City fix 5
03-May-03 H Chelsea fix 30
11-May-03 A Birmingham City fix 15


WEST HAM 240

========
BIRMINGHAM 285
In other words Birminghams fixtures are 45 handicap points harder than West Hams which means not a lot really, but it does show they have a much harder run of games.

H Everton fix 20
A Manchester United fix 35
A Leeds United fix 15
H Arsenal fix 30
A Blackburn Rovers fix 5
H Manchester United fix 30
A Bolton Wanderers fix 15
H Chelsea fix 30
H Liverpool fix 20
A Aston Villa fix 15
A Manchester City fix 5
H West Bromwich Albion fix 10
A Tottenham Hotspur fix 5
H Sunderland fix 10
A Charlton Athletic fix 5
H Southampton fix 0
H Middlesbrough fix 0
A Newcastle United fix 25
H West Ham United10

BIRMINGHAM 285
================

BOLTON 300

H Newcstle United 20
A Everton 25
A Aston Villa 15
H Fulham 10
A Charlton Athletic 5
A Newcastle United 25
H Everton 20
H Birmingham City 10
A West Bromwich Albion 15
H Manchester United 30
A Liverpool 25
A Sunderland 15
H Tottenham Hotspur 0
H Manchester City 0
A Chelsea 35
H West Ham United 10
A Blackburn Rovers 5
H Arsenal 30
A Southampton 5
H Middlesbrough 0

BOLTON 300 (game in hand)
========================

Sunderland 250

H Leeds United 10
A Southampton 5
A Manchester United 35
H Blackburn Rovers 0
A Everton 25
H Southampton 0
H Charlton Athletic 0
A Tottenham Hotspur 5
H Middlesbrough 5
A Fulham 15
H Bolton Wanderers 10
A West Ham United 15
H Chelsea 30
A Birmingham City 15
H West Bromwich Albion 10
A Manchester City 5
H Newcastle United 20
A Aston Villa 15
H Arsenal 30

SUNDERLAND 250
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Postby FDiMcA on Mon Dec 16, 2002 1:36 pm

=======
WBA 265

H Arsenal 30
A Charlton Athletic 5
A Fulham 15
H Manchester United 30
A Leeds United 15
H Charlton Athletic 0
A Manchester City 5
H Bolton Wanderers 15
H West Ham United 15
A Southampton 5
H Chelsea 30
A Birmingham City 15
A Middlesbrough 5
H Everton 20
A Sunderland 15
H Tottenham Hotspur 0
H Liverpool 20
A Blackburn Rovers 5
H Newcastle United 20


WBA 265
============
FULHAM 260

A West Ham United 15
H Manchester City 0
H West Bromwich Albion 10
A Bolton Wanderers 15
H Middlesbrough 0
A Manchester City 5
A Arsenal 35
H Aston Villa 10
A Tottenham Hotspur 5
H Sunderland 10
H Southampton 0
A Manchester United 35
H Blackburn Rovers 0
A Liverpool 25
H Newcastle United 20
A Leeds United 15
A Chelsea 35
H Everton 20
A Charlton Athletic 5


FULHAM 260
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Postby Northern Paulo on Mon Dec 16, 2002 1:44 pm

Blimey Frank! Have you been on the Red Bull and Prozac this morning? :lol:
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Postby FDiMcA on Mon Dec 16, 2002 1:49 pm

WEST HAM 240

SUNDERLAND 250

FULHAM 260

WBA 265

BIRMINGHAM 285

BOLTON 300 (game in hand)

The league table

team................ (GD)....Points

S Birmingham....(- 4).....+8
S Fulham...........(- 1).....+7
S Sunderland.....(-14).....+2
R West Brom.....(-14).....0
R Bolton............(-10).....-1
R West Ham......(-17).....-2



So although my handicaping system is very rough West Ham have a quantifiably easier set of games left than any other team in the drop zone.
Sunderland are arguably the safest team around given their points tally and games to go.
And Bolton are in massive trouble.
Unfortunatley the implication is that West Ham will get above Bolton and West Brom, the task of catching one of the other 3 teams may not be so easy.
But Birmingham may well have trouble due to their fixtures.
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Postby Northern Paulo on Mon Dec 16, 2002 1:50 pm

I meant to say Red Bull and Pro-Plus
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Postby FDiMcA on Mon Dec 16, 2002 1:59 pm

Although this thread is all about Facts and not suppositions, I think most of us including me and you reckoned Sunderland would drop. Their points tally, remaining fixtures, experience of manager seems to be lifting them, BUT had they not beaten the 'given-up' Liverpool they would only be 1 point ahead of us.

Im starting to think that if we can catch Sunderland we will be pretty close to Fulham and Brum too. As everyone is noticeing, the next 2 games for us could save not just this season but arguably the next 3 or 4 as well.
Maybe finishing above Sunderland will mean safety.
20 games to overhaul Sunderland? (including a home game against them) It could be a lot worse?
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Postby PhilipG on Mon Dec 16, 2002 2:07 pm

Frank you are to be truly commended in your thought and application in this matter. Well Done. BTW is this how you choose your lottery numbers??? Because if so, I would hate to be behind you in the queue, while you filled your coupon in.

For what it is worth, my approach is to not care anymore, because that is when WHU start to pick up. There are many things that I could say regarding team selection and performance over the last 4 months, but it only makes me feel worse thinking about them. no. I think I will go back to being a casual, I don't really give a F**k follower, and then it won't hurt so much when I see the club I once loved and followed with a passion are sent spiralling into the nationwide, with crippling debt's, and 'so-called' talented starlets leaving for big money and potential call-ups for their country. I bet they will not look over their shoulder once with the slightest remorse that they are partly to blame for the demise of a fantastic football academy.

Pass me the razorblade!!!!!

:cry:
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Postby Northern Paulo on Mon Dec 16, 2002 2:10 pm

I have to say that towards the end of season, there will be a few other clubs floundering too. Fulham and B'ham not too far away, as you rightly say.

I'm really trying to stay optimistic but the dark side of the Force grows strong Master Franko.
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Postby Andrew on Mon Dec 16, 2002 2:16 pm

FDiMcActually I agree with you on this ! wrote:It is fairly popularly believed that West Ham will by an un-written law loose games to the likes of Reading and Oldham while easily beating teams like Aresnal and Man U. Although there is some sterngth to this argument 'perception' is affected by the magnitude of such events - as opposed to the scarcity of them.


That is of course a very astute point, we remember the triumphs and the disasters but the other results get forgotten about.

And yes, you are absolutely right it is merely our perception of the state of events, unfortunately this perception does permeate onto the pitch and you sometimes feel that they are more "up" for the big games than the others.

My feeling is that we cannot take anything for granted. I admire your nostradamus-like interpretation of the remaining fixtures for the relegation candidates, but I am always cautious of reading too much into fixture lists and trying to anticipate how other teams will perform. There are just too many variables at work here, injuries suspensions, mamagers being sacked, individual motivations etc.

I am not dismissing your posts at all, in fact I am impressed by the amount of thought that you have put into this(if that sounds patronising then it certainly is not meant to be), but, although I am a theorist by nature and would ordinarily do exactly as you have done here, my pragmatic side will not allow me to gaze into the crystal ball for a sign of hope in this case. Instead i want to see the results on the pitch.

But god, I hope you are right though :)

Top posts sir!
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