Official Betting Thread

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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby davids cross on Mon Jul 02, 2012 4:59 pm

I've got it.....

Open a Betdaq account.

They have a Betdaq Ass that is free to use. Works very much, almost the same as Betfair Ass..

The liquidity is not as strong but it depends what markets you want to use it on. I have two accounts with them :lol:

Just an option really mate...........I wouldn't want to encourage anyone to bet really. You must have banned yourself for good reason.
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby rare as rockinghorse shat on Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:38 am

fjthegrey wrote:If my brother asked me for access to my cards so he could open an account in my name on a betting site the week after he'd heard about potential job trouble, I'd say no.


You are of course completely correct. I haven't asked him by the way.

To be honest, it's more so I can study the way the market moves on Betting Assistant, as I'm learning each day about it, but it's tough when you can't see it in action.
IF I were to get on there, then I'd set a monthly limit of a tenner, or something and be using completely stripped down versions of betting with £1/£2 scratch bets, risking a maximum 10p or something each time.
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby rare as rockinghorse shat on Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:02 am

Anyone know a website, or resources for checking a Horse's price at any time over the 24hrs prior to a race?
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby dtp2 on Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:31 am

Last night, whilst waiting to collect a takeaway, I popped next door into Ladbrokes. Seeing a horse about to run with a name that instantly resonated on a personal level, I lumped on.

Now whilst there were sufficient funds in my account, it was the first time I'd ever used a debit card in a bookies and due to a load of activity on my card that day, it was flagged as a suspicious transaction and declined. My phone rang instantly and through a sequence of press 1 for this etc, the bank reactivated my card.

However, this was too late now and the race began. I couldn't bear to watch so walked out and had a fag.

Which begs the question; if there were sufficent funds and the horse won (which would have generated a return well into four figures), but the transaction was stopped by my bank, does that leave me any grounds to claim some sort of compensation?

Awaits a flurry of one word negative responses.....
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby fjthegrey on Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:42 am

None at all mate. The bookies cant be held accountable for blocked cards and the bank, well, do you expect to get anything from them?

Sometimes online they let you bet on credit but high street bookmaker chains don't really do it anymore.

Take comfort in the fact it probably lost and you've probably saved a few dollars.
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby dtp2 on Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:55 am

Yeah, figured I'd have no issue with the bookies, but the bank? Well, I hear what you're implying with them being basts, but they stopped the transaction as they thought it was fraudulent. Clearly it wasn't...
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby rare as rockinghorse shat on Tue Jul 03, 2012 10:11 am

So, you want to claim against them, for trying to protect you?

What if the card was being used by someone else and they didn't put a block on the suspicious activity to protect you, causing you to lose money and have to go through the expense of reclaiming it all back etc?

You don't have a leg to stand on mate :)
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby dtp2 on Tue Jul 03, 2012 10:25 am

rare as rockinghorse shat wrote:

You don't have a leg to stand on mate :)


Yeah I'd figured that, Sweetcheeks. x
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby BSB1 on Tue Jul 03, 2012 11:48 am

rare as rockinghorse shat wrote:DC

So, if we were talking about horses that dropped from, say 14 down to about 9/2 overnight, then you could realistically earn some good wedge if you stake high? About £100?

So, in that example, if you have a good eye that a horse will be well backed nearer race time, taking the above as an example, you'd back overnight @ 14s for £100

Meaning if you layed at 9/2, then you'd be looking at about £221 profit?

Or am I completely wrong?


Is it me or are you seeing pound signs flashing before your eyes. :wink:
Remember that what you may see as a brilliant idea to make money is probably already being done by others and they may have further advanced their style to counteract anyone else who tries the same.

rare as rockinghorse shat wrote:
To be honest, it's more so I can study the way the market moves on Betting Assistant, as I'm learning each day about it, but it's tough when you can't see it in action.
IF I were to get on there, then I'd set a monthly limit of a tenner, or something and be using completely stripped down versions of betting with £1/£2 scratch bets, risking a maximum 10p or something each time.


Risk management is the name of the game. The way DC is talking he could be a seasoned trader in my game. There is a fine line you have to watch even when betting in small amounts. Small amounts don't have as big an emotional impact so carelessness can creep in. The flip side is that you have a few winners but they don't amount to much money. You then start to imagine those winners with bigger stakes and what they would produce which can lead bigger risk taking. FWIW I'm not knocking you or mugging you off but I'm just picking up a certain vibe from your posts that I've seen a hundred times before.
Of course I could have you all wrong and just be talking bollox.Image
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby CentenaryUpperHammer on Tue Jul 03, 2012 11:55 am

How is this cycling geezer getting on? Lumped a tenner on him to win when RARs posted it.
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby BSB1 on Tue Jul 03, 2012 11:57 am

CentenaryUpperHammer wrote:How is this cycling geezer getting on? Lumped a tenner on him to win when RARs posted it.


5th overall
2nd in the Youth rank (this is the one he needs to win).
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/tour-de-france/standings/yellow.html
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby rare as rockinghorse shat on Tue Jul 03, 2012 12:07 pm

BSB

I appreciate what you're saying and am in complete agreement with you and what other experienced traders think.
Only now do I get to see things from the perspective that I need to. Sometimes you have to take a hit and use it as a learning curve.

BSB1 wrote:Is it me or are you seeing pound signs flashing before your eyes. :wink:
Remember that what you may see as a brilliant idea to make money is probably already being done by others and they may have further advanced their style to counteract anyone else who tries the same.


I must admit, I've always struggled with discipline and I see the £££ signs big time. I tell myself that winning 40p here and £1.20 there will ALL add up over time and become slightly bigger in ratio.

No one ever went bust by making a profit.

But, then I'd think 'Oohh, I'm on a roll... lemme stick a tenner on for some serious dough'.
Bosh. Profit wiped out.

Of course. Any certain strategy must be met with caution and small, trial stakes.
However, I see a big trend in amateur pundits lumping on tips from various social media sites close to race time, so the idea is to get ahead of the curve.
Even if it drops a few clicks... £100 on each race with a stop loss of a fiver or so, you're talking very minimal risk to make small, regular profits.

BSB1 wrote:Risk management is the name of the game. The way DC is talking he could be a seasoned trader in my game. There is a fine line you have to watch even when betting in small amounts. Small amounts don't have as big an emotional impact so carelessness can creep in. The flip side is that you have a few winners but they don't amount to much money. You then start to imagine those winners with bigger stakes and what they would produce which can lead bigger risk taking. FWIW I'm not knocking you or mugging you off but I'm just picking up a certain vibe from your posts that I've seen a hundred times before.
Of course I could have you all wrong and just be talking bollox.Image


Your insight serves you well.

That's exactly what I have done.
I've shared a few posts on the subject by PM with DC that I've whittled away £150 quid or so in the past 4-5 months, just trying to chuck £2 on a random 6/1 shot, hoping to sell mid race, then watching it drift off and slowly watching my money go and letting it run, hoping that it will change.
Pure gambling, pure stupidity and the sure fire way to lose a lot of money long term.

But of course, I think just about every person who is interested in making money long term, has to go through a certain amount of loss to know how and why they lose the money.

Guess it's about finding what system, strategy works for you.

As I say, I'd be backing horses only that I think will come down in price near race time and are unlikely to drift.
If they start to drift, or drift to much, I have the stop loss on it, or will choose to take the small hit, move on, forget about it and don't get emotionally attached to what I could have won.

Absolutely bang on with your first sentence in your 2nd paragraph.
I've learnt that not losing is far more important that winning. How it's easier to get attracted and pulled in by what you 'might' win, rather than what you might lose.

How it's absolutely key to miss out on any profit by stopping your loss as a priority.

There will always be profits to chase, as they will never run out. But keep taking losses and your money will.

I've annoyed the **** out of myself by betting stupidly - mainly out of boredom - with silly little stakes that have no care and watching £2 here, £4 there turn into £50 loss over a few weeks.
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby CentenaryUpperHammer on Tue Jul 03, 2012 12:13 pm

CentenaryUpperHammer wrote:How is this cycling geezer getting on? Lumped a tenner on him to win when RARs posted it.


BSB1 wrote:5th overall
2nd in the Youth rank (this is the one he needs to win).
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/tour-de-france/standings/yellow.html



:thup: Will keep an eye on it. Cheers
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby rare as rockinghorse shat on Tue Jul 03, 2012 12:15 pm

Re: Boasson Hagen

He is doing very well, as expected. A lot of this is from shadowing Cavendish or Wiggins.
He'll continue to do well.

But in order to win the Yellow/White jersey, then you need to be an all round rider.
It's why Cavendish, who is one of the best in the world, is 2500/1 for the yellow jersey! Simply because he's focusing on the time trials, as he's built for sprinting and would be like a snail in treacle up the mountains. (2nd in the Green Jersey, 101st in the Yellow :lol: )
Wiggins is the all rounder.

Basically, what I'm saying, is that the young Norwegian will probably struggle with the mountain stages (hence his big SP).
But hopefully overall he can stay in touch enough to mount a challenge overall.

If you have a bet to lay, then it may be worth looking at the value just before these stages. But don't take my word for it.
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby BasingstokeIron on Tue Jul 03, 2012 12:25 pm

Boasson Hagen is an allrounder though, won two stages last year and finished second twice including on a long breakaway with Thor Hushovd. put 100 on at 50-1 as i think its a ridiculous good price.
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby rare as rockinghorse shat on Tue Jul 03, 2012 12:30 pm

Sorry BI

I'm just going by what my brother said, that he may struggle with the mountains maybe.
I probably filled in a few gaps erroneously.

What are your overall views of him then? Think he's in with a good chance?
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby BasingstokeIron on Tue Jul 03, 2012 12:38 pm

Stage 16 and 17 last year he broke away on climbs the latter of which he won on the summit. He was ill for parts of the tour last year as well which makes his performances more remarkable.

There are a lot of decent young riders this year but he's come off the back of a good last two seasons and is more experienced than a lot of his category. As I say I put 100 on because i thought 50-1 is ludicrous. He will be there or there abouts but I am quietly confident he will win it. Peter Sagan could spoil the party but is a sprinter and may get caught out on the tougher category climbs :thup:
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby BSB1 on Tue Jul 03, 2012 12:51 pm

RARS
You're spot on with all that you're saying. I don't do betfair and all that laying jazz though I will hedge a decent bet if the opportunity arises. When you pick a particular horse it may be worth watching what others are doing with regards to laying. You might find that no-one takes you up because someone else has offered better odds. If it's also possible, move your stop when you are in profit to a break even level. If you keep disciplined then you'll make money.
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby rare as rockinghorse shat on Tue Jul 03, 2012 12:55 pm

Yeah.

DC pointed out to me that you have to be aware of whether the horse is still actively being backed at the lower odds.
No point if the horse is being layed and backed at 15 points apart. You'd never get your odds matched.
Though to be fair, this only really happens in-running when it's clear the horse is out of proceedings, whereas I'd have looked to have layed my horse at any point between the morning of the race and 2 minutes before the off when the money is flooding in.

Hopefully flooding in from naive punters chucking money at a tipped horse. Hopefully your tipped horse. :)

I'll do just that which you also mention. Change the stop, so that it breaks even on every other horse, but still keeps my horse as a punt.
So instead of taking a few quid profit and moving on, if I feel like it represents a good punt, then I can leave a £10 bet on a 7/1 shot, without having staked a penny.
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Re: Official Betting Thread

Postby Fishbone on Tue Jul 03, 2012 1:18 pm

RARS, in regards to your lump on a horse in the hope that they will go down in price, be warned as I tried that strategy for a while and got a little burnt. If you do try it do your research! I didn't spend enough time and don't know enough (and I know a fair bit) about horses and lost a fair amount.

Have now switched to football as I am pretty confident that before I do my research and analysis, I am already way ahead of your average punter. By throwing in my own system and ratings, this is where I get the edge. Didn't go as well as I would have like for the Euro's but that was mainly down the small amount of games that I could work with. Once the English and Scottish football seasons are underway and I have a decent amount of data to work with, I think it will start working.
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