How effective have the bookmakers been in predicting the EPL winners over the years?

With the English Premier League being one of the most popular soccer leagues in the world, bookmakers from all over the world have been attempting to predict its winners for decades. However, predicting the winner of the EPL is no easy task, and the bookies have had varying levels of success in their predictions over the years.

One of the main challenges in predicting the winner of the EPL is the competitiveness of the league. With 20 teams competing in it, there are many potential contenders for the title each season. Additionally, the EPL is known for its unpredictable nature, with upsets and surprise results occurring regularly. This makes it difficult for bookmakers to accurately predict the winner. The Swiss betting sites are no exception to this, as the betting market has become international nowadays, with the betting firms being aligned with each other.

Despite these challenges, bookmakers have managed to make relatively accurate predictions in some seasons. For example, in the 2018-2019 season, Manchester City was the overwhelming favourite to win the league, and they ended up doing so. In this case, bookmakers were able to accurately predict the winner due to Manchester City's dominant performance that season.

Not always a piece of cake

However, there have also been seasons where bookmakers have struggled to predict the winner. In the 2015-2016 season, Leicester City pulled off one of the biggest upsets in EPL history by winning the league as 5000/1 outsiders. This was a shock result that few, if any, bookmakers and punters predicted.

In more recent seasons, in 2017 Chelsea managed to lift the trophy when priced at about 11/2 and being the third favourites. The next two years, bookmakers were right in picking the Citizens as first favourites. Liverpool proved them half-wrong in the 2019-20 season, as they got the title despite being second to Man City in bookmaker’s preference. The latter were again right in the two last years, as they picked right on Guardiola’s side.

The things they consider

So, how do bookmakers go about predicting the winner of the EPL? One way they do this is by analysing the performances of the teams and players in the league, as expected. This includes looking at factors such as the team's overall record, their results against other top teams, and the quality of their players of course. Bookmakers also consider a team's financial resources, as teams with more money to spend on players may have a competitive advantage over the others, and also the ability to make changes in the winter transfer window.

In addition to analysing individual teams, bookmakers also consider the overall strength of the league each year. Some seasons may be more competitive than others, which can make it harder to predict the winner. At these times, we see tighter sets of odds between the competitors, something that reduces the risk for the bookies.

Another factor that bookmakers consider is the schedule of each team. Some teams may have a more difficult schedule, which could affect their chances of winning the league. For example, a team that has to play several top teams in a row may struggle to maintain their position at the top of the league, and a participation in the Champions League would also count largely of course.

Bookmakers also take into account any changes that have occurred within a team, such as the hiring of a new manager or the acquisition of new players. These changes can have a significant impact on a team's performance, and bookmakers will adjust their predictions accordingly.

Despite the many challenges involved in predicting the winner of the EPL, bookmakers have managed to make relatively accurate predictions in some seasons. However, the unpredictable nature of the league means that there will always be a degree of uncertainty when it comes to predicting the winner. Ultimately, the team that performs the best on the pitch will be the one that wins the league, and that is something that bookmakers cannot control.

* Like to share your thoughts on this article? Please visit the KUMB Forum to leave a comment.

* Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the highlighted author/s and do not necessarily represent or reflect the official policy or position of

More Opinion