Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Does exactly what it says on the tin - the forum for football-related discussion.

Moderators: chalks, the pink palermo, -DL-, Gnome, Rio, bristolhammerfc

User avatar
arlhe
Posts: 2599
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 7:44 pm
Location: Basildon

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by arlhe » Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:00 pm

Arsenal's squad are 18 points better than ours...

HammerAl
Posts: 1933
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:30 pm

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by HammerAl » Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:12 pm

I don't think Arsenal's squad is great, but there's no chance of us challenging the top six any time soon, especially if the rumours of a low summer transfer budget are true. I think we'd need to spend £100m (at least) for the next two summer windows and not lose any players to be challenging the top 6 on a regular basis.

User avatar
hammer1975
Posts: 11870
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 10:16 pm

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by hammer1975 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:25 pm

The £25m has been quoted by a few of the usual social media sources.

Obviously the most important thing to is to spend any money wisely - but £25m doesn’t go that far in the current climate.

Since moving to the bowl (per transfermarkt) we’ve spent £109m net. In the same timeframe Everton have spent £156m, Wolves £126m, Bournemouth £107m, Palace £98m.

User avatar
bubbles1966
Posts: 49816
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2007 10:01 pm

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by bubbles1966 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:00 pm

With the usual horrendous start removed...

Image

That implies we haven't really been scoring enough goals. The last couple of Arnie-less months are a factor, but who else gets the goals?

We've failed to score in 38% of our fixtures - the top 5 fail to score just 10% of the time.

We've been awful ~ until the last few games ~ at grabbing set piece goals. Snodgrass' delivery is among the best in the league.

How many goals/shots do we get from a midfield three of Rice, Noble, Snodgrass? We know we can't play a two and defend properly.

Nasri, Yarmolenko, Wilshere and Lanzini have scored two goals between them so far.

User avatar
hammer1975
Posts: 11870
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 10:16 pm

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by hammer1975 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:36 pm

bubbles1966 wrote: How many goals/shots do we get from a midfield three of Rice, Noble, Snodgrass? We know we can't play a two and defend properly.

Nasri, Yarmolenko, Wilshere and Lanzini have scored two goals between them so far.
We need the three in central midfield as they effectively compensate for the lack of a transformational central midfielder. Someone like Doucoure - a player who is strong, big and physical but also technically very good - would suit us well but would also be incredibly expensive (and beyond our rumoured total net budget comfortably).

It’s catch 22, we have to increase numbers of the less prolific players in order to free up the selected more prolific ones. We could play one less centre mid but would likely then need to score two more up the other end. I think it’s worth bearing mind how many games we’ve won just due to a twenty-odd minute ‘burst’ of quality which has resulted in a couple of goals.

I’m not convinced by Nasri so far (quality as he has in the past he’s no good to us if fitness is going to be a challenge), Wilshere has not gone to plan hold be overstatement of the century, but Yarmolenko looked a threat and i’d suggest sparked our season, finally Lanzini is probably 5-10 goals and same number of assists when fit for a season. We need Arnie’s form from last season back. Changing all our strikers in the summer would be a gamble.

We also need to be aware that other teams will strengthen before next season. I maintain that we need similar investment to last season on a net basis to push on up the league. We absolutely need to spend well first and foremost, but there are also a number of positions where we could do with buying more more certain upgrades for the squad.

Crouchend_Hammer
Posts: 13177
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2004 9:31 am
Location: Forest Gate

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by Crouchend_Hammer » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:42 pm

hammer1975 wrote:
We need the three in central midfield as they effectively compensate for the lack of a transformational central midfielder. Someone like Doucoure - a player who is strong, big and physical but also technically very good - would suit us well but would also be incredibly expensive (and beyond our rumoured total net budget comfortably).

.
or you get lucky and find someone like Doucoure at source and spend 10M or less
He wasn't an unknown at Rennes but certainly a decent bit of scouting
Plenty of gems in France

User avatar
bubbles1966
Posts: 49816
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2007 10:01 pm

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by bubbles1966 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:53 pm

Thiago Mendes might be the one. Probaby cost under £10m net of Cullen, Oxford, Obiang and Fernandes.

User avatar
hammer1975
Posts: 11870
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 10:16 pm

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by hammer1975 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:04 pm

Agree there are gems in France (as well as other leagues) - and no transfer is a guaranteed success. But there seems to be a huge amount of confidence that we can sell Obiang, Masuaku, Perez, Hernandez, Arnie early in the window at a decent price and upgrade with a little extra cash thrown in and spread around all the upgrades.

Firstly, it wouldn’t surprise me to see us sell them later in the window and for less than we expect (we may even end up paying part of the wages in the case of Perez). We then have signing on fees, agent fees etc.

I don’t think we should spend money for the sake of it - but I would like us to focus on identifying the right players rather than being so financially-led that we are spreading ourselves so thin. IMO, such a small budget immediately dictates a transfer approach with a significant portion of free, older/injury prone bargains, or punts.

Pellegrini has shown that he has a good record with the more expensive signings - whilst the cheaper signings have been less convincing (Balbuena aside).

I personally don’t think a £25m budget is spending to the clubs income level (even allowing for interest on the loans to the board).

User avatar
hammer1975
Posts: 11870
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 10:16 pm

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by hammer1975 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:13 pm

bubbles1966 wrote:Thiago Mendes might be the one. Probaby cost under £10m net of Cullen, Oxford, Obiang and Fernandes.
I like him, wasn’t the fee alleged to be c£15m last summer - now they’re talking £30m+ though

A Charlton mate reckons they expect £1m for Cullen, Fernandes perm transfer option is €6m, we’ve been trying to sell Oxford unsuccessfully for at least two windows, Obiang offer was £9m allegedly. I still think sales will be lower than we expect and probably later in the window as we try to wring every £ out of them.

I suspect we’ll go back in for Medel for a few mill and that could well be it in centre mid. It’s the way they role. Buy cheap, buy twice.

The continued links to Shelvey worry me at £20m :P

User avatar
bubbles1966
Posts: 49816
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2007 10:01 pm

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by bubbles1966 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:19 pm

If £25m net is £25m gross, it's highly likely to be inadequate to progress substantially. If it's £25m net and £70m gross that's a different kettle of fish.

£5m net on a full back
£10m net on a central midfielder
£10m net on a striker

could work reasonably well imo if we pull in

£7-8m on Masuaku and Byram
£15m-£20m on Fernandes, Obiang, Cullen, Oxford
£15m on Perez, Martinez, Hugill, Hernandez

Then wave goodbye to Zabaleta, Nasri, Carroll and there's £250k a week in wages for the right Bosmans/loan.

User avatar
Hammer83
Posts: 3885
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 8:17 pm

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by Hammer83 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:28 am

£25m won’t even stand still in this league that will only buy one decent CB these days.If that is true the amount we must make our voices heard again a club with close to £200m turnover should have a far larger budget to work with! Our rivals will spend far more the likes of wolves Leicester Bournemouth etc.

User avatar
bubbles1966
Posts: 49816
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2007 10:01 pm

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by bubbles1966 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:08 pm

Over the last 5 seasons, the net summer budget has been

2014/5 £23.0 m + £4.8m* = £27.8m
2015/6 £36.8 m + £2.5m = £39.3m
2016/7 £45.7 m + £3.5m = £49.2m (sold Payet in January)
2017/8 £23.3 m + £5.8m = £29.1m (sold Ayew, Fonte and Sakho in January)
2018/9 £89.5 m + £6.8m = £96.3m

*contingent liabilities

I think £30m-£40m is the standard budget and that Pellegrini was given two seasons' worth (17/18 as well as 18/19) in one go.

User avatar
Hammer83
Posts: 3885
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 8:17 pm

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by Hammer83 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:10 am

After another dreadful away performance shows that £25m won’t cut the mustard I am afraid.We need to spend that on a decent DM to go alongside Rice so we stop getting bullied and overrun in midfield! Both Noble and Snodgrass positions need upgrading both 32 and lack the pace and strength and height required for battle.I wouldn’t sell them as they can be useful squad players.

We also need another decent CB and RB and then a couple of strikers as we will very likely lose all 4 we have in the summer.We have so much work to do to just to even be a top 8 team! let alone challenge top 6 we are a very long way off that.

User avatar
ironilunga
Posts: 4266
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2010 11:05 am

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by ironilunga » Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:37 am

Hammer83 wrote:After another dreadful away performance shows that £25m won’t cut the mustard I am afraid.We need to spend that on a decent DM to go alongside Rice so we stop getting bullied and overrun in midfield!
I agree that this position is the priority. An absolute nasty bast*rd is required.

We need to flog Obiang (8mil), Oxford (5mil), Hugill (5mil), Byram (5mil), Masuaku (8mil) and Arnautovic 40mil

If as is mooted 25mil is the budget (I think it will be much more) then add the 70 mil that the above will garner.

That is 95 mil for a top striker, central midfielder and two full backs. So, the baulk of the cash on the Striker and CM (60mil) and then 35mil on full backs.Should help that Carroll is off the payroll.

User avatar
Condorhammer
Posts: 267
Joined: Wed May 24, 2017 9:42 am

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by Condorhammer » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:29 am

Isn’t 2021 the earliest at which the board are able to sell-up with no penalty payable to the LDDC?
If so I would expect absolutely bare minimum investment from the c**** at the top over the next couple of seasons. I don’t believe they would invest more than the bare minimum required in an effort to make the club more desirable to any potential purchaser (or attempt to increase income via the prize money offered based on final league position) as that would involve financial risk that I simply don’t think they’d be prepared to take.
Youth, freebies, loans and cheapies it’ll be.
Staying aboard the Premier League gravy train is all that matters (coupled with their interest payments), and final league position is irrelevant as long as we finish in 17th or better.
As others have said, last summers spend was an anomaly. Their parsimony in previous seasons meant it was more affordable for them to go large on a one-off basis, plus I believe the Burnley game and threats of a march were the catalyst for that spend.
Top 6 under this mob? You can forget it.

User avatar
hammer1975
Posts: 11870
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 10:16 pm

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by hammer1975 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:53 am

bubbles1966 wrote:Over the last 5 seasons, the net summer budget has been

2014/5 £23.0 m + £4.8m* = £27.8m
2015/6 £36.8 m + £2.5m = £39.3m
2016/7 £45.7 m + £3.5m = £49.2m (sold Payet in January)
2017/8 £23.3 m + £5.8m = £29.1m (sold Ayew, Fonte and Sakho in January)
2018/9 £89.5 m + £6.8m = £96.3m

*contingent liabilities

I think £30m-£40m is the standard budget and that Pellegrini was given two seasons' worth (17/18 as well as 18/19) in one go.
I definitely saw last summer as a ‘catch-up’ rather than bringing this summer forward. Very high level => £175m turnover (last season), £105m wages (last season), £3m rent, £4m interest. Turnover should be pretty stable, wages only allowed to increase by max £7m IIRC. Leaves £56m. Appreciate there are accounting overlays such as depreciation and accounting for players contracts etc - that should all net out over life though imo - leaving an implied average spend capability of £45m-£55m. Whilst we’ve not sold anyone of note this season we’ve hopefully made a few million from loan fees.

I also wouldn’t expect all contingent liabilities to be paid out - and if they are then that would probably suggest we’re doing well and turnover should go up accordingly which would increase spending power.

£25m summer budget basically begs the question (again) - what was the point of moving (and who benefits)....

User avatar
TommyHammer
Posts: 1077
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2011 4:32 pm
Location: London

Re: Challenging the top 6 - who stays?

Post by TommyHammer » Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:17 am

Love Noble and the blokes a club legend, and people probably won't like to hear this, but isn't it time we started looking for a proper quality CDM to go alongside Rice? You have to ask yourself, would Mark Noble help West Ham get into the top 6? For me he wouldn't.

Post Reply