Coronavirus

[RichieRiv]

I think this is the answer. If Omicron is bad, and we wait, it will be too late and we will all be back in full lockdown over Xmas.

They should have an idea on whether it is more or less medically dangerous by the two weeks and hopefully we can ease off.

A bold call admittedly, but I think this is going to be more infectious but less dangerous.

There are plenty of credible scientists and data out there, that makes this a likely outcome. Also its now thought the incubation period could be as short as 2-3 days meaning all the timelines get compressed.

Patient zero in SA was the first, this variant has been doing the rounds for a good few weeks prior and as probably been here longer than the Saturday before last.

[Morocco Mole]

They want to wreck global economies to control people? What do they want to control them for? So far Trump and Merkel have gone since this grand plan started, Johnson looks to be on the threshold.

Trump has gone and left the most powerful country in the world on the brink of civil war and almost certain oligarchy. Existential ****.

Off topic, apologies. FWIW I’m swerving the booster and I won’t be doing any of this other bull**** these charlatans tell me do. Enough is enough.

[Crouchend_Hammer]

No we were told that the vaccine would cover us for all known variants at that time, but there was always the danger new variants with different mutations might render it useless.

None of this was a secret.

Well given viruses mutate frequently we had better just accept this situation for ever then

Anyone really think we won't be in the same situation next year?

[stu1]

The social contract was to get double jabbed and have your freedoms back.

Now it’s a booster, another variant, another scandal that takes us all for fools.

I don’t think many will take a blind bit of notice after the past couple of days imo. A lot of people had it very tough last Christmas, it’s equivalent to spitting in their faces.

Couldn’t agree more.

The constant changing of the goal posts and the complete hypocrisy of our government has to be testing even the most obedient members of the public.

The governments guidance already had more holes than a sieve and that’s before the government decided to laugh at the public behind their backs.

[-DL-]

Off topic, apologies. FWIW I’m swerving the booster and I won’t be doing any of this other bull**** these charlatans tell me do. Enough is enough.

I'm seriously considering swerving the booster in all honesty. I've had a ten year old Covid positive autistic child, who still likes his Daddy snuggles, and I'm not that much of an arse that I'm going to reject the poor bugger when he has wanted one. I just couldn't do it. I'm double vaxxed, and haven't got it. He ends his isolation tomorrow, just in time so he can go and join in the fun at school on the last day on Friday, which we're made up about.

I've done lateral flows regularly, and zilch. Nada. Same as the wife.

[stu1]

Personally think the majority of the public will abide but as always it’s the loud minority dissenters who will get the publicity.

Surely there has to become a point where the public start to think whether these rules are justified and not just blindly follow them?

(To clarify I’m not saying they have never been justified)

[Morocco Mole]

The opioid crisis in the US should be evidence enough of what just one specific sector of private industry is prepared to do for profit.

And this is just one of a myriad of agendas at play here.

It boggles my mind that otherwise extremely intelligent people can’t see the possible ‘whys’.

[DrVenk]

Some of that I can accept

There are a finite number of beds in each hospital though for people that are considered to be acutely unwell, irrespective of anything to do with the critically ill, ventilators, ICU usage etc. If too many people are turning up, they will run out of beds and run out of people to look after the patients.

Our numbers really aren't bad at the moment but the Germans are running at 70k infections, 5k in intensive care and 500-600 dead a day at the moment, so there have to be questions about the true effectiveness of some of these vaccines. Something does not tie up.

Don't see what you're not accepting. You're just making different points.

You cannot extrapolate data from SA onto the UK. That's not a debate. You simply cannot. So pointing out that third graph is moot when concerned about the UK. You also miss the optimistic nature of the FT article...

Rate of hospitalisations to ICU / Vents is key. Again, not a debate, because we are here to stop people dying ultimately. The evidence is that ratio is lower. Could change, at the moment, no reason to believe that it is more deadly strain, but quite the opposite. I didn't say there wouldn't be increased pressure on hospitals. Of course there will be. But then show me a winter when that wasn't the case?

Vaccines are highly effective as they were promised to be. The death rate is MUCH lower.

As for Germany, the vaccines have been a disruptive intervention in the natural progress and cycle of the spread of the virus across different countries. Different vaccines themselves are having differential, long term effects on effectiveness. Vaccinations started at different dates; vaccine uptake was at different rates; the vaccines were different. So, yeah, look over there and, what, panic? No. Let's look at our data...

We're ok. That can change. But we're ok at the moment. Steady as she goes and if decent data comes in that this strain is more deadly, then become concerned. But at the moment, we just need to keep vaccinating and boosting people, encouraging social distance where we can, and wear masks in busy indoor spaces to minimise transmission and hospitalisations.

The dead cat press conference today is because....well, we all know what the dead cat today was about.

[bonzosbeard]

If I heard correctly, Whitty just said that hospitalisations in South Africa from the new variant have increased by 300% in recent days.

Given that press reports last week said SA had seen zero hospitalisations, might it not have been an idea to give some numbers?

Or is the aim just to put the fear of Christ up everyone in the run up to Christmas?

Absolute f*cking bull****.

I absolutely cocked my ear to this as recently I seen a decent video on this very site that said nothing of the sort. Based on figures from SA hospital sources.

Now a 300% increase in last few days is so opposite to other info I've heard that I hope an expert or two here could call that out.

[Whufc06]

Whitty even said that a number of the people in hospital in SA with Omicron aren’t actually being treated for it but are asymptomatic with other conditions. He obviously didn’t expand that the number that are not actually there because of it is around 75% but I suppose that wouldn’t have put the shitters up people would it

[bigcarpchaser]

I believe this might be where the 300% increase number have come from.
Seems daft to compare the UK to SA. Vaguely similar in population give or take 10 million but apart from that, there’s no similarity whatsoever.

https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/12/03/ ... mber-2021/

[Kev59]

I believe this might be where the 300% increase number have come from.
Seems daft to compare the UK to SA. Vaguely similar in population give or take 10 million but apart from that, there’s no similarity whatsoever.

https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/12/03/ ... mber-2021/

That says there was a 300% increase in CASES, not hospital admissions. (That's having a go at Whitty, not you).

Deaths and the number listed as seriously ill hasn't changed much is SA. Actually looks quite stable.

[bubbles1966]

You cannot extrapolate data from SA onto the UK. That's not a debate. You simply cannot.

The level of prevalence is so heightened (5x) that hospitals may well experience similar demands to last year if this level of infection is causal to admission and repeated over here, even if you counter-balance it with high efficacy from a vaccine.

Rate of hospitalisations to ICU / Vents is key. Again, not a debate, because we are here to stop people dying ultimately.

The number of vent beds/ICU is a small proportion of overall beds - c 10-15% - of those being treated for/with covid. And , of course, many people who are in hospital aren't there with covid anyways so it's a far lower fraction of total occupancy. Many hospital in-patients who are very poorly would never get anywhere near an ICU bed either.

Overall though, the hospital needs to have enough beds and staff available to look after the acutely unwell, whether they have covid or not.

That is the doubt being raised here if that factor of 5 came into play, even allowing for the counter-balance of the vaccine.

The evidence is that ratio is lower.

The ratio is not being questioned; it's the absolute number of admissions that would be the concern.

The death rate is MUCH lower.

They are down certainly, but I am not sure that anyone expected them to still be running at nearly 600 a day in Germany.

So, yeah, look over there and, what, panic? No. Let's look at our data...

It's got nowt to do with panic ; it's an expectation that they would/should be doing better. That's what all these reactions are about whether it's reinstating masks, vaccine passports, WFH etc. People thought things would be more improved than they suddenly appear to be.

It's most certainly not unique to here, either. Bayern are playing Barca in an empty stadium.

[Rays Rock]

Personally think the majority of the public will abide but as always it’s the loud minority dissenters who will get the publicity.

You might be correct, but just gauging comments on here or BBC hys over a couple of weeks, the tide is definitely turning on willing voluntary compliance.

[Bend it like Repka]

Well given viruses mutate frequently we had better just accept this situation for ever then

Anyone really think we won't be in the same situation next year?

Viruses are **** aren't they? Proving that we humans don't know it all.

History shows that usually they mutate in a more harmless direction. We can only pray that history repeats itself with covid

[Samba]

Fwiw... sister & partner both tested positive at home on Tues night - he 3 jabbed, she due to have had 3rd today, so that didn't happen.. Went on Weds to be 'properly' tested.
Mainly, headaches, coughs (but both have had coughs for some time) & weird temps (keeps changing from normal to high, back & forth).
Be interesting, right up to Christmas.. hopefully not longer..

[666 hammer]

If this inept fraud of a PM thinks I'm going to let him ruin yet another Christmas for me he can **** the **** off.

More semi lockdown nonsense, more half baked wear a mask here but not here nonsense.

Venues over 10,000 require "vaccine passports". Where's the logic behind that? Vaccines do not stop you catching or spreading anything. Is 9999 people safe but 10,000 dangerous? Don't give me any of that "oh but they had to draw a line somewhere" rubbish.

At what point do we all get on with our lives? I thought we were finally actually ****ing there and yet today I've had to spend all day indoors with a mask on in a training course - but you can take your mask off to drink coffee as much as you want - in a freezing ****ing cold room that had to have the door open because apparently draughts keep us all safe from Covid.

We dont do this nonsense every winter for flu. Are we to do it every bloody year for Covid until forever? We were all told if we got jabbed up we'd all go back to normal, so were they lying, completely ****ing inept or both?

And apparently we going for zero carbon. So not only are discarding more plastic waste than previous recent years due to masks. Every public building has heating at full blast with windows open.
I am done with this lot.

[paulhs1]

Mixed messaging from Boris and the tories.

On the one hand its: more restrictions, possibly further restrictions to come and "let's have a conversation about mandatory vaccines".

And on the other hand its: just ignore what we tell you as weve also flouted the rules and taken the proverbial.

All of this smacks of trying to speak to two groups of people at once. Firstly the other world leaders/WHO/Bill Gates(insert who you wish) who seem to be making every govt synchronised on this crazy non sensicle path and secondly the UK populas by telling them to not go along with what they're being told to do.

Whatever Boris has done has worked on me as I personally wont be following this nonsense, I've had enough of it.

[jastons]

Surely there has to become a point where the public start to think whether these rules are justified and not just blindly follow them?

(To clarify I’m not saying they have never been justified)

I think that ship has long since sailed

[RichieRiv]

Another interesting video by Dr J C. who goes through the South African data and talks a little more about Omicron and how potentially it has gained aspects of another corona virus - the common cold.



I like the way he explains things. Really easy to understand and all delivered in a measured way. He also says the media are not reporting things correctly, primarily as they don't understand.