Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

[Het-Field]

Today would suggest we'll beat ourselves.

For almost two years we've been relying on a finely balance equilibrium, that cannot be altered greatly. Today, we were minus our first choice of central defenders, and our first choice CDM (and evidently our second). That is a question of funding for strength in depth (and raises the question of Kral's involvement at all). That is a shared responsibility between the boardroom and the management team, as the discrepancy between first and second choices is too wide.

From a Moyes point of view, playing Lanzini as CDM seemed odd, especially when I thought everybody accepted he was not a CM, let alone a CDM. Then, when we got back to 2-2, rather than putting in Kral to hold, he put in Masuaku and Yarmolenko. Masuaku is not a defensive player, which made a vulnerable side, less robust. Essentially, neither player was equipped to change the game.

Strength in depth is vital, and we simply dont have it, and it become more evidence when the structural positions are weakened.

[sendô]

Who I worry about, in order, when it comes to stopping us getting 4th:

West Ham, Arsenal, Spurs, Man Utd.

We are our own worst enemy.

[bubbles1966]

Today's result was a stinker but sort of foreseeable.

I sensed it with the 3/4 of the defensive heart of the team being absent and I knew that Moyes would stick with a team that turned in a pretty laboured and unconvincing performance on Wednesday.

It's true that we're slightly shooting ourselves in the foot.

I think we're likely to finish 6th or 7th now, but knowing us we'll win at Man U next week if we have Zouma and Soucek fit.

[arlhe]

Never expected fourth, six th will be amazing but I expect 8th - 10th, today didn't change that.

[funky chicken]

Of the 11 home Premier League games we’ve had so far we have only won 5.

https://www.premierleague.com/clubs/25 ... d/results

We’ve picked up some really impressive wins in those 5. But we’ve dropped a lot of points. The ones to Brentford, Southampton and Leeds were the really bad ones.

If we finish 7th or above it’s still a very good season for us. I would’ve taken that before the season had started. And I sure as hell would do now.

[sendô]

I'd be disappointed with 7th given where we are now.

Unless it was coupled with a cup win.

That's not Man Utd style spit my dummy out boo the manager disappointed, but on the whole we've been better than Man Utd and Spurs this season.

[Believer]

Huge disappointment today and I have to admit that although we were missing a few players and had a couple of laboured performances, I’d put a lot of that down to fatigue.

I’m glad Moyes has had a bit of a pop at the PL but we al know that it’ll go largely unnoticed. If I’m being in any way a conspiracy theorist, I’d say that we are upsetting the powers by being where we are and that is one of the main reasons why we had to play Norwich midweek. There was no real reason for it and although a win would have been extremely beneficial to us in a psychological way, it was always going to be a big ask.

I had the hump during the game and on the way home but hindsight is a great thing and we really do need to cut the players some slack. We are really punching above our weight from a squad perspective. Yes we’ve got a first 11 that will go toe to toe with most in the league however when you’re throwing on a player like Yarmalenko who seems to treat every minute he gets now as a lads day out, then that really says it all. He truly is a joke and quite why Moyes persists in giving him minutes is beyond me.

However, it’s not all about any failings, it’s about where I see us finishing and to be honest I reckon we are struggling to make top 6 now. Arsenal have 2 games to go above us and Spurs have 4 and I don’t see either team not winning at least 50% of their games in hand.

That said, a win at Old Trafford is not beyond us and having a full week of rest will only help. We win that and suddenly top 5 is again a target however top 4 is gone.

[stu1]

Our home form against lesser teams is proving to be a big issue.

This season we’ve dropped 12 points at home to Southampton, Brentford, Leeds, Palace and Brighton who had 10 men. In fact the only team we’ve beat who finished outside the top 8 at home this season is Norwich.

Meanwhile against last seasons top 8 we’ve beaten Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and Leicester, whilst we’ve lost to Man U.

It’s actually quite astounding that from our home games against last seasons top 8 we have 12/15 but only 5/18 against the rest.

To add to that our away from is better than our home form with 20 points compared to 17 with 11 games played each. It’s worth noting over the remainder of the season we have a number of ‘easy’ home games but some very difficult away games.

[Turtlecharityracer]

I think we are being found out. It happens.
Clubs have people watching games to direct issues.
Clubs rsalising:
We lack pace on the ball and if they get a solid block of defence an midfield, which they have time, in their half quickly we struggle to break the down.
Antonio is too geeedy inposesssion and they have time to nullify other players when he is in possession.
We are incredibly vulnerable in the full back areas to pace.
The centre halves are vulnerable.
Take away our set pieces and we will struggle to score.

Moyes need to take control and not keep doing the same things.
Changes needed before the season drifts away.

[hammer1975]

Don’t know so much about top four but slightly conscious of wolves quietly going about their business with some decent level of consistency and getting the rub of the green on decisions, team fitness etc. hope they’re not like Southampton in the year we had Payet - everyone was so focused about finishing above some of the self important six yet we got overtaken by Southampton for a European spot right at the death.

[sendô]

I think the thing that pissed me off about that defeat today was the same thing that angered me about the Arsenal defeat so much - the fact that we were in a position to really take control of 4th place but fell short at the key moment.

[paulhs1]

We could have done with a new centre back in the team today.

Or dear I say it we couke have done with this game being moved to later in the season.

[Samba]

Of the 11 home Premier League games we’ve had so far we have only won 5.

https://www.premierleague.com/clubs/25 ... d/results

We’ve picked up some really impressive wins in those 5. But we’ve dropped a lot of points. The ones to Brentford, Southampton and Leeds were there really bad ones.

I agree, fc. As others have mentioned, you could include Brighton there, as well.
I would also include Palace & ManU, both at home, too.
The ManU & Brentford home defeats, both coming 3 days after us playing in the Europa.
As some of us said, it was likely that us playing in it would have some adverse effects, on our league performances.
It's obviously not just that, it's even more so, the lack of strength/quality in the whole squad.
Sadly, top four season-ending teams, probably shouldn't be losing at home to Brentford, Southampton & Leeds.

[sutts07]

Palace at home we led twice and really dropped two points.
Man Utd at home should have been a point for us and two off of their total.
Brentford at home should have been at least a point considering where we were in the last few mins.
Brighton at home should have been a win considering where we were in the last few mins so that is another two dropped.

Games at Wolves, Burnley and Arsenal were poor, but you are going to get that, same as Leeds at home to a degree.

As others have said, we are beating ourselves to be honest. The six points highlighted above would have us sat nicely up in the top four as a genuine contender for a UCL place.

We still have Watford, Newcastle, Wolves, Villa, Everton and Burnley to come to our place. The only other two home games we have are Arsenal, which could be a cracker, and Man City on the penultimate weekend when they could already be champions and may well be focused elsewhere.

These home games against teams from mid table or worse (and let's not forget we were one of these teams just 24 months ago) will all be key in terms of where we finish. We have to stamp our mark on these games if we are going to pull away from these clubs in terms of stature and disrupting the 'Sky' top six. Win them all and that is 18 points on the board for the second half of the season. Sprinkle in a couple of away wins and surprise draws... we will be very much in the mix, but for me still short of the top four.

To secure 4th you typically have to be getting into the 70s with your points haul for the season as the ten year average cut is 71+ (that said, 66 and 67 has been good enough the past two years). Looking at the games we have left, I just don't see where that many points are coming from. We'd have to go on a pronominal run to hit the 70 points mark.

That said, we are in there, if we pick up as many points as all the others, we will stay in there.

[hammerman11]

The clubs inability to bring in new players whether thats moyes`s fault or the boards or both. lack of alternatives at LB CB and CF will stop us getting top 4.

as it stands at the moment I would suggest the following final places:
man c
liverpool
chelsea
spurs
arsenal
WHU
Man u

so we would get EL again which would be great, unless we win it this season of course !
too many points dropped against mid table /lower teams brentford, southampton,leeds is at least 5 points dropped

plenty of games to go but we need to rely on teams dropping points especially the north london slags

[Clacton-ammer]

The Leeds game for me was hugely important in the race, all be it there is a huge amount of football left for all I have conditioned myself that top 4 has gone, it's easier that way on the nerves

European football is now the target in my nut, and throw everything at the 2 cups please.

Plus, a couple of good additions to the squad would be lovely, but I will not hold my breath on that, I still have hope though...

[pdbis]

Everyone ignoring Wolves.

[Benaloon]

Top 4 is gone I think, but that's fine it was always a stretch and we should be good for top 6 which is still a great achievement.

Leeds, Burnley, Southampton, Brentford - you have to win these kinds of games if you seriously want to compete.

[Crouchend_Hammer]

Everyone ignoring Wolves.

Wolves are certainly competing with us for top 6, as are Brighton I suspect

Will be a proper bun fight for positions 4-8 I reckon

[S-H]

I'd focus everything on the cups now, for the rest of this season.