Cost of living crisis

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EvilC
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by EvilC »

SammyLeeWasOffside wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:32 pm The whole point of the mini budget was to stimulate growth in the economy

There have to be jobs for that to be meaningful.
We have no shortage of jobs.

If I do a mini-budget now, I stimulate the economy. Yay. I am a genius.

However, I also create a wage-price spiral, which creates embedded inflation, and comes with all the usual accompanying mess. Oh no, I'm not a genius, I'm a ****ing idiot being reckless with the country's economy that shouldn't be put in charge of a whelk stall.

The whole point is that the general assessment of the mini-budget by anyone worth listening to is that it is a bad idea.
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SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

EvilC wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:39 pm We have no shortage of jobs.

The whole point is that the general assessment of the mini-budget by anyone worth listening to is that it is a bad idea.
For now. Are you betting that inflation dropping makes the unaffordable suddenly affordable at the same price? I honestly don't see how it does. We have added what 5-8k to household expenses probably, thats an awful lot of cash that can't be spent elsewhere in the economy.

Which is what I said at the start. Its not fixing the current problem its a playbook to fix the one 2 crises ago.
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by EvilC »

SammyLeeWasOffside wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:48 pm For now. Are you betting that inflation dropping makes the unaffordable suddenly affordable at the same price? I honestly don't see how it does. We have added what 5-8k to household expenses probably, thats an awful lot of cash that can't be spent elsewhere in the economy.

Which is what I said at the start. Its not fixing the current problem its a playbook to fix the one 2 crises ago.
No. There is no fix for the current problem, unless someone is going to nip over to Russia and re-open the spigot without anyone noticing. That does not mean that pursuing dumb policies which have nothing behind them to suggest that they will work is suddenly the best thing to do, although obviously contrarian, **** economics got the government an 80 seat majority, so I can see why they'd roll the dice with that again. I hope they don't take the next logical step and ask our firefighters to start pumping kerosene onto blazes in the future.

If this policy was so good, the government should be able to convince anyone that matters that it will work. They can't (or won't), and that should concern you.
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by jastons »

This damaged pipeline... will Russia miss the money it won't be getting from the gas it won't be selling?
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by EvilC »

jastons wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:23 pm This damaged pipeline... will Russia miss the money it won't be getting from the gas it won't be selling?
Russia is still selling some gas that arrives via Ukraine. I think there is a huge question mark over whether this is likely to continue.

I suspect the reason for doing it is to spook the market, driving prices higher, which creates more issues for Europe. I would imagine that any sabotage of any sort of working installation in Europe would be considered an act of war.
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by jastons »

EvilC wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:30 pm Russia is still selling some gas that arrives via Ukraine. I think there is a huge question mark over whether this is likely to continue.

I suspect the reason for doing it is to spook the market, driving prices higher, which creates more issues for Europe. I would imagine that any sabotage of any sort of working installation in Europe would be considered an act of war.
Isn't that what has happened here? Sabotage?
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by EvilC »

jastons wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:44 pm Isn't that what has happened here? Sabotage?
Yes, but NS wasn’t supplying any gas.
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by jastons »

EvilC wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:59 pm Yes, but NS wasn’t supplying any gas.
The intent was obviously still there. Jump in two footed and you can still get a red card. You don't need to make contact.
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by EvilC »

jastons wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:28 pm The intent was obviously still there. Jump in two footed and you can still get a red card. You don't need to make contact.
Intent to do what? It wasn't to disrupt gas supplies.
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by jastons »

Spook the markets, caused financial disruption and uncertainty.

Also, why else would you deliberately damage a gas pipe if it wasn't to ultimately disrupt gas supplies?
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by EvilC »

jastons wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:35 pm Spook the markets, caused financial disruption and uncertainty.

Also, why else would you deliberately damage a gas pipe if it wasn't to ultimately disrupt gas supplies?
For the reasons you listed above.

If you want to disrupt gas supply you don't blow up a pipeline that you aren't using.
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by alf git »

EvilC wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:52 pm For the reasons you listed above.

If you want to disrupt gas supply you don't blow up a pipeline that you aren't using.
This week an unused gas pipeline.
Next week an underwater electric cable or a transatlantic communications cable :chin:
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by EvilC »

alf git wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:49 pm This week an unused gas pipeline.
Next week an underwater electric cable or a transatlantic communications cable :chin:
Maybe. But if you want to disrupt gas supply, you don’t do it to a pipeline that you are aware isn’t moving gas because you control the supply.
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by MB »

EvilC wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:56 pm Maybe. But if you want to disrupt gas supply, you don’t do it to a pipeline that you are aware isn’t moving gas because you control the supply.
I'd assume it is a sabre rattle. Knocking out something useful could easily be seen as an act of aggression and give NATO exactly what they need to step things up.
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by EvilC »

MB wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:09 pm I'd assume it is a sabre rattle. Knocking out something useful could easily be seen as an act of aggression and give NATO exactly what they need to step things up.
Exactly.
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by bonzosbeard »

Ti's a worry that fuel pipes could be a target
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by old fart »

jastons wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:35 pm Spook the markets, caused financial disruption and uncertainty.

Also, why else would you deliberately damage a gas pipe if it wasn't to ultimately disrupt gas supplies?
Yes Liz

Just making the point she'll use any hook to hang her fascinator on
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by Estuary »

jastons wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:23 pm This damaged pipeline... will Russia miss the money it won't be getting from the gas it won't be selling?
Its only two of three lines, that's how you know its them, they've kept the tap on so the money doesn't dry up. A genuine sabotage by a third party enemy would have ****ed up all three lines to strangle both Russia's funds and EU fuel supply.
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by kenthammer1984 »

Just got through to Halifax and spoke to an advisor and they said we currently have a £2.6k early exit fee to pay and the best 5 year deal they can get us on is 3.49% - works out about £170 a month more than we are paying now.

If we can wait until end of April there is no early exit fee, but the rates will be different then (obviously don’t know if better or worse).
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Re: Cost of living crisis

Post by EvilC »

3.49% is amazing in the current market.
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