Russian invasion of Ukraine

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kenthammer
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by kenthammer »

Sounds like something from a medieval battle
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Dimension Diver »

Toulouse_Iron wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 5:03 pm My gut says Putin is going to launch a huge attack, sacrificing tens of thousands of livesbefore the end of the month and report it as a glorious assault on the "Nazis" in the noble Russian tradition. He's too far into the lie to turn back now. There will be extensive domestic coverage of troops going in but none of the body bags coming out. The families of the poor conscrips concerned will know the truth, though.
The west has a fortnight to get as much support over to Northern (Belarus border?) and Eastern Ukraine to conteract the sheer quantity of cannon fodder to be sent over, or the losses on both sides will be mind-boggling.

All based on my know-nothing instinct.
Ukrainian intelligence is actually expecting a major Russian offensive sometime soon, probably before Ukrainians get the tanks into service.

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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by MB »

Yes plenty of reports of probing actions by the Russians along the Eastern front and politically that seems to be Putin’s focus. Also less armour on the battlefield suggesting it is being held back for something big.

Just a question of how willing he is to use conscripts in the same way as Wagner used convicts as no one really expects a breakthrough otherwise.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Mayday »

kenthammer wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:56 pm Sounds like something from a medieval battle
It's not much different to how they fought in WW2. This is still a country with a low respect and value for life and a large population.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by MB »

Mayday wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 1:58 pm It's not much different to how they fought in WW2. This is still a country with a low respect and value for life and a large population.
It is worth noting the events described in that twitter thread are only on a small part of the front where Wagner were using convicts hence why the powers that be ignored what was going on.

Even convicts are refusing to join now word has got back and there are not reports suggesting the regular Russian army is fighting in the same way so I don't think we should extrapolate too much from this (yet).

There was an interesting piece towards the start of the war about population levels in Russia. It was something like on average Russian families had seven children before the First World War, five before the Second World War and about three now. Even that isn't evenly spread with the ethnic parts of Russia having more children and they have disproportionately taken the brunt of the losses.

When the sons of Moscow etc start to die then maybe something will give.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Johnny Byrne's Boots »

US to provide long-range missiles
The US says additional military aid to Ukraine worth $2.2bn (£1.83bn) will include long-range missiles capable of doubling its attack range.

It brings the total amount of military aid given to Ukraine to more than $29.3bn (£24.31bn) since February 2022.

The package includes ground-launched small-diameter bombs (GLSDB) which can hit targets 150km (93 miles) away.

But officials refused to be drawn on speculation that the munitions could be used to attack parts of annexed Crimea.

"When it comes to Ukrainian plans on operations, clearly that is their decision," Pentagon spokesperson Brig Gen Pat Ryder told reporters.

"This gives them a longer-range capability, long-range fires capability, that will enable them, again, to conduct operations in defence of their country and take back their sovereign territory, Russian-occupied areas."


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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by the pink palermo »

Zelenskyy visiting the UK today.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by MB »

Reports that one of the last major roads into Bakhmut has been cut. Likely Ukraine will have to withdraw its forces soon. The Russians have paid a hell of a price though. Reports they are losing 1000 soldiers a day and plenty of videos of armour going splat.

This before they go on the major offensive.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Loftyhammer »

MB wrote: Wed Feb 08, 2023 12:39 pm Reports that one of the last major roads into Bakhmut has been cut. Likely Ukraine will have to withdraw its forces soon. The Russians have paid a hell of a price though. Reports they are losing 1000 soldiers a day and plenty of videos of armour going splat.

This before they go on the major offensive.
There was a theory voiced on the Battleground pod last week (I think) that Ukraine have been doing a bit of a rope-a-dope around Bakhmut. Obviously can't be sure (sounded like they lost a fair few as well); but wouldn't be a huge surprise. Smart cookies....
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by MB »

Loftyhammer wrote: Wed Feb 08, 2023 2:23 pm There was a theory voiced on the Battleground pod last week (I think) that Ukraine have been doing a bit of a rope-a-dope around Bakhmut. Obviously can't be sure (sounded like they lost a fair few as well); but wouldn't be a huge surprise. Smart cookies....
Yes I was listening to that yesterday. We shall see. Certainly the best chance of a decisive victory is to suck the Russians in and then counter attack. As they said on the pod though, no one really knows what state the Ukrainians are in. The next few months could be very decisive.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Johnny Byrne's Boots »

Notorious Russian nationalist shot dead in Ukraine
Notorious Russian army captain and mercenary Igor Mangushev has died in hospital, days after he was shot in the head at close range in occupied Ukraine, his friends have said.

Mangushev's wife Tatyana described his killing as an execution.

He commanded an anti-drone unit in occupied Luhansk, but had also been one of the founders of a mercenary group fighting Ukrainian forces in 2014.

He took to a stage last summer holding a man's skull.

In a video posted on social media in August, Mangushev was filmed saying the skull belonged to a Ukrainian fighter killed defending the Azovstal steel works in the southern port of Mariupol.

An extreme nationalist, Mangushev said Russia was not at war with people, but with an idea of Ukraine as an "anti-Russian state", and it did not matter how many Ukrainians died.

...................

Russian reports said he had been shot at close range with a 9mm bullet fired into the top of his head at an angle of 45 degrees. Russian authorities are investigating the killing and have so far said nothing about the circumstances.

The bullet had reportedly lodged in his brain. Before he died, pictures showed him lying in a hospital bed.

Another extreme Russian nationalist, Pavel Gubarev, said everyone knew who was behind the shooting and observed that Prigozhin had for the moment gone quiet.


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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Johnny Byrne's Boots »

From BBC ticker

PMs's position has shifted - but can he deliver?

Jonathan Beale

BBC defence correspondent

The day started with a commitment from the UK to help train Ukrainain pilots.

But following an impassioned plea by Zelensky for fighter jets themselves, that pledge gradually shifted.

The PM has now ordered the defence secretary to examine ways that the UK can provide Ukraine with fighter jets.

The RAF has a limited number of aircraft it could theoretically provide Ukraine - including about 20 older Typhoon jets.

However, there is a danger that that Britain is writing checks that it will struggle to cash.

The RAF is already facing a backlog in the training of its own fast jet pilots, maintenance and upkeep of older aircraft is also more difficult.

Even the prime minister has admitted that if Britain does supply fast jets, it will be for the longer term not the near future.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by MB »

the pink palermo wrote: Wed Feb 08, 2023 11:19 am Zelenskyy visiting the UK today.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by delbert »

^ Not his best work.^
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by MB »

delbert wrote: Wed Feb 08, 2023 6:50 pm ^ Not his best work.^
Really? I thought it was a nice swipe at the media who have spent weeks covering the Raab allegations and completely ignored Ukraine
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by delbert »

MB wrote: Wed Feb 08, 2023 7:16 pm Really? I thought it was a nice swipe at the media who have spent weeks covering the Raab allegations and completely ignored Ukraine
In which case, it is. :smiler:

I didn't see it like that though mate, to me it looks like a swipe at Raab by comparing whining Civil Servants to Ukrainians fighting the Orcs......
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by bubbles1966 »

Or a swipe at the civil servants.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by MB »

bubbles1966 wrote: Wed Feb 08, 2023 7:31 pm Or a swipe at the civil servants.
Or indeed that!
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by vietnammer »

delbert wrote: Wed Feb 08, 2023 6:50 pm ^ Not his best work.^
Kind of agree (with me arm twisted up me back). False equivalency and all that
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