The Energy Crisis

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

That's a huge drop in unit rate by the price cap

Yeah. The govt price guarantee money cushioned people quite a lot. £3200 down to £2000 today.

[Junco Partner]

Genuinely shocked that they had the common-sense to use the lower of the two between the OFGEM cap and the Government Energy Price Guarantee.

Ofgem Cap (July) - £2,074.00
Govt G'tee (Ends at EO June)- £2,500.00

We've still paid the difference between these and the market rate, just via borrowing, interest & future taxation instead of in bills over the last year....gotta keep breaking those profit records see.

No doubt there will be lobbying by some to be allowed to charge the higher of the two 'to drive investment'

[EvilC]

Genuinely shocked that they had the common-sense to use the lower of the two between the OFGEM cap and the Government Energy Price Guarantee.

Ofgem Cap (July) - £2,074.00
Govt G'tee (Ends at EO June)- £2,500.00

We've still paid the difference between these and the market rate, just via borrowing, interest & future taxation instead of in bills over the last year....gotta keep breaking those profit records see.

No doubt there will be lobbying by some to be allowed to charge the higher of the two 'to drive investment'

Utilities hedge to the price cap. This is the result - with prices on the way up you benefit from hedges, when they go down you lose out. This is what has happened here.

********************************

There has been another pretty big move down in wholesale gas prices this morning (Q1 TTF down about 4%).

[Loftyhammer]

Utilities hedge to the price cap. This is the result - with prices on the way up you benefit from hedges, when they go down you lose out. This is what has happened here.

********************************

There has been another pretty big move down in wholesale gas prices this morning (Q1 TTF down about 4%).

This is a crystal ball type question....but assuming we have no major extreme weather events (or more wars!); what's your view on pricing going into and through winter?

[EvilC]

This is a crystal ball type question....but assuming we have no major extreme weather events (or more wars!); what's your view on pricing going into and through winter?

Prevailing market view seems to be down at present but you are unlikely to get to the levels we were at a few years ago due to structural supply changes. The UK seems to have done a pretty good job in reducing demand even if you adjust for weather.

Someone at Trafigura said at some forum that you are no longer in a world of the commodity cycle but it a world of spikes. The big structural changes in gas and other commodities no longer coming out of Russia along with lack of investment due to low rates and ESG rules means that you are in a world where adjusting supply is even harder than before so really all you can do is adjust demand, and that is done by having prohibitively high pricing (as you can see in just about anything - food, energy, metals). So it’ll be unpleasant, but the worst is hopefully over and Europe avoided Armageddon.

[Greatest Cockney Rip Off]

Ove Energy, what an absolute shower of bastards they are ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-g ... e-65544654

[EvilC]

I met the owner once. He was an entitled prick that wanted something for nothing. And that’s fine, but even when we explained that we weren’t about to do that and why, he was pretty disappointed. Which is hilarious, as I’m pretty sure he got told the same thing by everyone else, and he knew all this before he asked the question.

With all the billing stuff, as a company that isn’t that old by utility standards, he has no excuse here (billing in this industry is surprisingly hard, or was, much of it being down to old systems or struggling to integrate customer books that were acquired). They should be capable of having something that prevents a bill going out that is say 3x larger than expected usage or some other way of catching bills that are clearly wrong.

[alf git]

Ove Energy, what an absolute shower of bastards they are ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-g ... e-65544654

Ovo were the Octopus of their day. Got too big to care.

[Jonah]

Imagine 100k bill landing on your door mat though.

[EvilC]

Wholesale prices down again today.

[The Old Man of Storr]

The big structural changes in gas and other commodities no longer coming out of Russia along with lack of investment due to low rates and ESG rules means that you are in a world where adjusting supply is even harder than before - So it’ll be unpleasant, but the worst is hopefully over and Europe avoided Armageddon.

Would I be right in saying that Europe avoided ' Armageddon ' by buying their Russian gas via India , EC , Spain and Germany especially ?

[EvilC]

Would I be right in saying that Europe avoided ' Armageddon ' by buying their Russian gas via India , EC , Spain and Germany especially ?

No. Why do you think Europe bought their Russian gas from India?

[The Old Man of Storr]

No. Why do you think Europe bought their Russian gas from India?

Coz Reuters told me so .

Apologies , been busy making our house hospitable for a couple of VIPs arriving any minute now .

[The Old Man of Storr]

Oh yeah , I know you're not going to take my word for it and I need to provide proof - here you are


https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 023-04-05/


Obviously this old git from Skye has his finger on the pulse .

[EvilC]

Did you actually read the article? Or did you just see the headline, think “this jives nicely with my worldview” and then post it on here?

Suggestion: read the article.

[The Old Man of Storr]

Did you actually read the article? Or did you just see the headline, think “this jives nicely with my worldview” and then post it on here?

Suggestion: read the article.

I did read the article .

Russian oil goes to India , the Indians refine it and sell it to Europe .
Am I close ?


'' Fuels from Russian oil gets backdoor entry into Europe via India '' - Reuters - Reuters don't lie , I read that on here somewhere .


I suggest you also read this week's Washington Post , they're now claiming the CIA knew 3 months in advance that Ukraine were going to blow up Nordsteam - seems the story changes every week - did you see the Polish Foreign Minister's tweet after NS blew up ' Thank You , USA ' . Took it down pretty sharpish but I've still got a copy if you want to see it .

[EvilC]

I did read the article .

Russian oil goes to India , the Indians refine it and sell it to Europe .
Am I close ?


'' Fuels from Russian oil gets backdoor entry into Europe via India '' - Reuters - Reuters don't lie , I read that on here somewhere .


I suggest you also read this week's Washington Post , they're now claiming the CIA knew 3 months in advance that Ukraine were going to blow up Nordsteam - seems the story changes every week - did you see the Polish Foreign Minister's tweet after NS blew up ' Thank You , USA ' . Took it down pretty sharpish but I've still got a copy if you want to see it .

Ok, since we have to do it this way - and this is why dealing with you on these topics is so grindingly monotonous, let's recap:

Would I be right in saying that Europe avoided ' Armageddon ' by buying their Russian gas via India , EC , Spain and Germany especially ?

No. Why do you think Europe bought their Russian gas from India?

So, we establish that we are talking about gas here - which is where there was a real crisis. Not about crude oil or refined products, which are different things and where there is a limited capacity for Europe to substitute one for the other (and given how much more expensive natural gas was that oil a while back).

Oh yeah , I know you're not going to take my word for it and I need to provide proof - here you are

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 023-04-05/

Obviously this old git from Skye has his finger on the pulse .

You then post an article that is entirely about oil and refined products. To be clear, since you seem to be unaware - these are very different from natural gas. You do not produce natural gas that goes into pipelines in Europe, or LNG, from refining oil. You either need to accept this as a fact, and after that, accept that you were in fact wrong to suggest that Europe has been in any material way been "buying their Russian gas via India", or alternatively, scour the internet to find something that supports your initial argument, because the Reuters article simply does not.

I will simply this - you were wrong. The Reuters article does not support your opinion. It is better for absolutely everyone that you stop now- whether this is via the usual "ha ha just joshing mate, you lads just don't get my sense of humour" reverse ferret or whatever other means.

Your last paragraph is simply you, after declaring that you weren't going to post any more in the Ukraine thread, attempted to cross-fertilise your opinions here instead. I'm not going to assist this by discussing it here.

[Loftyhammer]

Got an email from Octopus this morning reducing their Gas charges on flexible tarrif. Also highlighted fixed rate deals back available again…first time I’ve seen that. A sign of a bit more confidence in future price direction?

[EvilC]

Got an email from Octopus this morning reducing their Gas charges on flexible tarrif. Also highlighted fixed rate deals back available again…first time I’ve seen that. A sign of a bit more confidence in future price direction?

I think it is more that at lower and somewhat more stable prices they can finance the hedges more easily and with less risk of a massive cash drain from doing so.

[mumbles87]

Got an email from Octopus this morning reducing their Gas charges on flexible tarrif. Also highlighted fixed rate deals back available again…first time I’ve seen that. A sign of a bit more confidence in future price direction?

When the price guarantee happened octopus had to hike the day rate on tariffs like go etc to "average" out at 34p so they could get the money off the gov

Just heard our day rate is going down to 29p (night rate still 9.5p) so it shows they are sticking to what they did before. Pricing the day rate at the same as everyone else but discounting the night to encourage overnight charging.