Russian invasion of Ukraine

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Toulouse_Iron
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Toulouse_Iron »

This whole thing (forgive me for trivialising) sounds like 2 kids fighting in the back seat of a car. Kid1 calling kid2 names, taking the piss, putting his toys ever closer to kid2's side of the seat, pointing his nerf gun at him, saying "watcha gonna do about it?" Kid2 clumps kid1 and smashes up his toys. Fracas ensues.

Technically, Kid2, by clumping kid1 and smashing up the toys is clearly in the wrong but Kid1, is not blameless.
David Mitchell was clairvoyant in 2009: "Poke the Russians , poke the Russians, poke the Russians... Oh my God, they're coming!".

EDIT, I think I've posted this before.
PS, I'm 100% on Ukraine's side BTW. Russia clearly invaded and is destroying a sovereign country, committing hundreds/thousands of atrocities and war crimes, killing untold innocent civilians and acting like c-units for which they will go unpunished. 100% reprehensible.
This does not mean we can't ask questions about how we got to this point.
Last edited by Toulouse_Iron on Thu May 25, 2023 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Het-Field »

MB wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 10:25 am I just don't see what peaceful solution exists at this point. Both sides have lost so much that they would want something out of it and there isn't a position where both can declare a win and both are strong enough to continue fighting. One side or the other has to collapse before there will be peace (IMO) and the ramifications of that are significant.

As much as I'd like Russia to leave Ukraine and Putin to be overthrown, history shows us these things rarely work out for the best.

On the other side, appeasement does not work either as Putin is definitely a give an inch, take a mile type.

Some kind of "controlled" defeat of Russia looks the best outcome.
Or, they could engender a negotiated settlement, which doesn't impact the territorial or geopolitical sovereignty of Ukraine, but also satisfies their apparent concerns. A prime example would be impartial International observation of the treatment of Russian speakers in Donbas. Maybe limitations on the types of weapons that Ukraine might hold in future.

The difficulty is, is there any chance that Putin would accept that? Not a chance. Their red lines have been made clear, and that will require Ukraine relinquishing its sovereignty and part of its territory, in return for Russia temporarily leaving it alone.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by MB »

We shall see in the next few months Tomos. The Russian army looks broken. The inability to counter the "raid" this week with anything meaningful for two days shows just how stretched they are.

If Ukraine makes a breakthrough then who knows. The Russians don't seem to have any meaningful mobile reserve and throwing aircraft at it will see unsustainable losses.

I just don't see Ukraine going for a compromise unless the counter fails massively and I don't see them putting themselves in a position for that to happen.

Why would Ukraine come to the table?
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Toulouse_Iron »

And to balance my previous post: here's world-class political documentary makers Clarkson, Hammond and May in Georgia, reporting on Russian land-grabs, in case anyone was in any doubt about Putin's intentions to recreate the Russian/Soviet empire.
Poor 84 year-old farmer, on the farm he's lived in all his life, went to sleep one night in Georgia but woke up in Russia. The Russians had moved the barbed wire "border fence" and won't let the guy farm his land in Georgia ( half his farm is still on the Georgian side of the fence). He'll be ok, the Russians have probably moved the border far enough for all his farm to be in Russia now.
I was gobsmacked when I saw this for the first time.
Lebensraum....
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Het-Field »

MB wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 11:12 am
I just don't see Ukraine going for a compromise unless the counter fails massively and I don't see them putting themselves in a position for that to happen.

Why would Ukraine come to the table?
In real terms, it would be an invitation for Russia to revisit this in years to come, or else turn their attention to other neighbouring states. Everybody wants peace. But the road to peace is more complicated, and if it involves just giving in to initial Russian demands, then it is a 'peace' not worth the paper its printed on.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by sussexhammer74 »

Dimension Diver wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 2:02 am Prigozhin says war in Ukraine has backfired, warns of Russian revolution​

imrs.php
By Mary Ilyushina


“We are in a situation where we can simply lose Russia,” Prigozhin said, using an expletive to hammer his point. “We must introduce martial law. We unfortunately … must announce new waves of mobilization; we must put everyone who is capable to work on increasing the production of ammunition,” he said. “Russia needs to live like North Korea for a few years, so to say, close the borders … and work hard.”
If I am not mistaken, they have been living like North Korea. I.e, the ones that seem to benefit from corruption are the ones in power or close to the top.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Bend it like Repka »

The Old Man of Storr wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 10:37 am As you know , MB , I posted a few pages back asking you all how you think all this will end , what type of Peace can be agreed upon etc etc.
A bit rich considering the endless questions and points you willfully dodge....
The Old Man of Storr wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 10:37 am Some type of compromise will have to be reached that's for sure and it'll end up upsetting some factor or other [ that's another ' for sure ] .
Why will it? Your sporting suggestion that Ukraine just gives away some chunks of territory because it is so huge and won't notice, might not fly with people living and disappearing under Russian oppression. The policy of appeasement is never a good one.
The Old Man of Storr wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 10:37 am I don't see a ' Controlled Defeat ' of Russia .
You must have missed Afganistan then.

This will end with Putins death or dethronement. Russia is suffering economically and with the lives of it's sons. It's already been defeated on it's true aims, what is left is just face saving.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by The Old Man of Storr »

Bend it like Repka wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 2:30 pm Still he continues.....

Being old and on drugs doesn't give you a free pass I'm afraid. Where is your source for this claim?



Carry on, I'm sure you will pretend this post hasn't happened either and move swiftly onto the next piece of balanced analysis....

You're a hard and cruel man


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65691844


'' Ukraine war: US distances itself from Belgorod incursion into Russia -

The US insisted it did not "encourage or enable strikes inside of Russia".

Washington says it does not encourage strikes in Russia, after a border attack.

Despite official denials from Kyiv, it is hard to believe this raid was launched without assistance from Ukrainian military intelligence. ''

- BBC


https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... d03dc2b5ce

The governor of the Belgorod region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said the raid targeted the rural area around Graivoron, a town about 5 kilometers (3 miles) from the border. Twelve civilians were wounded in the attack, he said, and an older woman died during an evacuation.

The Russian news portal RBK, quoting unidentified sources in the regional interior ministry and territorial police, said Graivoron came under heavy shelling that lasted about five hours early Monday. After that, tanks fired at the Graivoron border checkpoint while the adjacent village of Kozinka came under mortar and rocket fire, RBK said, citing the same sources. Gladkov later reported that a Koznika villager had been killed.


https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/ ... ing-a77821

'' Russia Reports Third Civilian Death in Cross-Border Shelling ''


Ok , it was May 2022 but it was Belgorod , surely you can forgive an old man on drugs a simple mistake like that ?

I'm 67 you know .
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Bend it like Repka »

Well thank you for now providing sources. Otherwise it's just propaganda that we can't verify can we?

No proof there that it was Ukrainan troops by the way.

Tell me, even if it was, why should it be something you flagged. Given the amount of towns and cities Russia had indiscriminately flattened, Ukraine should play by some different rules?

After all, to quote you, "war is a dirty business."

To get the peaceful compromise you suggest, you know, Ukraine handing over chunks of land to the invaders, what compromises do you propose the Kremlin should make for their end?
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by MB »

Toulouse_Iron wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 10:55 am This does not mean we can't ask questions about how we got to this point.
Of course not. But those questions need to be asked objectively rather than what I generally see which is people starting with their pet hate (the US, NATO (which they seem to be think is the same thing) the EU or the amorphous blob called The West and then work back selectively to make it fit a narrative.

A lot of these takes also deny the sovereignty of countries like Ukraine and the Baltics. They merely become pawns to be disposed of or traded away.

This is quite a good timeline rebuttal of the US/NATO point

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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by The Old Man of Storr »

Bend it like Repka wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 7:29 am Well thank you for now providing sources. Otherwise it's just propaganda that we can't verify can we?

No proof there that it was Ukrainan troops by the way.



To get the peaceful compromise you suggest, you know, Ukraine handing over chunks of land to the invaders, what compromises do you propose the Kremlin should make for their end?

Whoever they were they're either all dead or captured now .

Anyway , I know how much you love your sources [ unless it's your mob only providing the odd Twitter quote which for some odd reason you're quite content with ] - so here's one from Bruno Kahl , Head of German Intelligence -

'' The power of Russian President Vladimir Putin is currently quite stable, according to Bruno Kahl, head of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND).

“We do not see any cracks in Putin’s system,” he said, speaking at the Federal Academy for Security Policy on 22 May. ''

Despite occasional expressions of criticism, for example regarding munitions supplies, there is no indication that the system is beginning to falter or collapse,” he stressed, adding that such a scenario cannot, however, be ruled out either.

“In the long run, Russia is still capable of waging war – with new and new conscripts,” Kahl said, adding that the same applies to weapons and ammunition.

“So there can be no talk of weakness or that Russia’s actions may come to an end,” Bruno Kahl emphasized. “Indeed, there are vulnerabilities and surprises – for example, in terms of military efficiency. But unless the West is very organized in supporting Ukraine and organizing resistance, Putin’s strategy of betting on the long term and the masses (of soldiers being sent to the front. – Ed.) may succeed.”


https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/05/23/ ... man-intel/


An interesting story which you might not see in the MSN for a few days yet -

Back in March 2023 General Andreas Marlow [ German Military ] said ' We will train up to 9000 Ukrainian soldiers ' -
https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/ger ... ervicemen/

Well , yesterday he just handed in his resignation when he saw the kind of people they were training claiming they were more interested in studying former SS Torture Training methods - yes , yes , I know - I can't provide sources just now - you won't be able to find any on his resignation just yet I bet . If I find any I'll post - anyway , got to get ready to go out so if you don't hear back I'm not ignoring you . :newthumb:
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Bend it like Repka »

That's fine Tomos, have a good time out. When you get back maybe you can tell me what Russia should give up as part of a peace settlement.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by MB »

The Old Man of Storr wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 9:58 am Whoever they were they're either all dead or captured now .
We know who they are and they looked very much alive when they gave press conferences over the last couple of days.

If they had been killed or captured then Russian sources would be showing more than one set of kit with some blood on it and a few wrecks which are somehow dust free like they've just come off the back of a truck. They'd be milking the PR for all it is worth same way Ukrainian sources are with the drone hit on the ship.

They are not shy to show bodies and prisoners so why not this time?

You also need to be very careful with German sources. Follow the money :winker:
Last edited by MB on Fri May 26, 2023 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Danny's Dyer Acting »

An interesting story there.

Had a quick look and it's really hard to find a primary source. All I can find are tweets reporting it 2nd hand (with no link to the original story) or Youtube videos reporting it 3rd hand with links to the aforementioned tweets.

Dig a little further and you can see that this "story" was being discussed on the German side of Twitter a couple of days ago. The only article anyone can find was on a site called "Aktuelle Nachrichten aus Berlin" (anachrichten.de). When people first started looking a little deeper, the site basically disappeared and showed a 404 error. Now a message shows up claiming they were hacked.

And where was this site being run from? https://whois.domaintools.com/anachrichten.de

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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gaz »

Another Nazi training camp wiped off the map

Russian rocket attack on Ukraine hospital kills two - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65720853

Keep going Vlad, it's all about the hearts and minds you know.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by MB »

The threat to Ukraine's Northern border disappearing may be a game changer and kick things off :chin:

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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by The Old Man of Storr »

Our old friend Andrei Kelin on the Laura Kuenssberg Show tomorrow morning - should be fun .


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65720980
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by westham,eggyandchips »

^^

All credibility will disappear the moment he starts threatening the West.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Loftyhammer »

Which he does….amongst other things

Ukraine war: Russian Ambassador Andrei Kelin issues warning of escalation in Ukraine https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65720980
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by alf git »

Ukraine targets Russian oil pipeline.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... ne-attack/
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