The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

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SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

Waiting lists in 2 years would be a doddle. Labour did it, reform could do it the same way.

Add in the plan to 2 tier the NHS with tax breaks and it would be easy.

There would of course still be millions on the waiting list and even more waiting to be referred (or whatever particular trigger they chose to count from).

The student debt write off is basically bursaries after the fact in return for service in the NHS. I could see starmer on board with that tbh.
Viv Stanshall
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by Viv Stanshall »

Tenbury wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 12:50 pm They're not a start up party....They're not even a party..he's just a pound shop Trump
At least come up with a name that he and his support wouldn’t like.
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old fart
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by old fart »

Viv Stanshall wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 1:46 pm At least come up with a name that he and his support wouldn’t like.
The Frumps?
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Tenbury
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by Tenbury »

Viv Stanshall wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 1:46 pm At least come up with a name that he and his support wouldn’t like.
Library.
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DaveWHU1964
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by DaveWHU1964 »

delbert wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 12:53 pm That being the case, and compared to the Greens, why is so much bandwidth being expended criticising their sums?
Because they are insane. Even Truss would blush mate.

Up to now he’s had far more publicity than scrutiny. No one’s asked him why he admires Putin. No one asks him why he took Putin’s money via Russia Today. No one has asked him does he support his candidate who wanted health care removed from women in order to get their life expectancy down to yours and mine. No one’s asked him if he agrees with that same fellow in that we should have kept out of WW2. No one’s asked him if he was so upset about Sunak coming home early from the D-Day commemorations, is he happy with his candidate who wouldn’t have had us take part in D-Day in the first place. No one’s asked him if he doesn’t support that prick then why haven’t they booted him out as a candidate.

He’s got away with it up to now.
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by bubbles1966 »

delbert wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 12:53 pm That being the case, and compared to the Greens, why is so much bandwidth being expended criticising their sums?
Starmer was playing the, " only one of two men is going to be PM" yesterday that Sunak was trying to use in an attempt to pretend Farage and Reform don't matter. Pretty much a sure sign that they both know Reform are taking votes from them.

They were on 20%-37% in 78 constituencies according to the Survation MRP (42,000 voter poll) in the early part of Farage.

Survation had Labour leading in 505 seats at the start of the campaign, it's fallen to 456 within 11 days. If that rate of loss continues for the rest of the campaign it's going to leave Starmer in a Cameron/May type situation - needing coalitions, 'headbangers, fruitcakes, loonies' .
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Danny's Dyer Acting
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by Danny's Dyer Acting »

Competency.

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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by bubbles1966 »

Oh dear...Labour want to punish the prudent....

Tax rises for those who "don’t really have the ability to write a cheque when they get into trouble”
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by DaveWHU1964 »

For context, whilst Labour are losing voters to Reform it’s not on the same scale that the Tories are.

The last four YouGov polls show that over those polls an average of 3% of Labour 2019 voters would now vote Reform. The figure for 2019 Tory voters is 34%.

Only one party is being killed by Reform.
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by Viv Stanshall »

DaveWHU1964 wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:39 pm For context, whilst Labour are losing voters to Reform it’s not on the same scale that the Tories are.

The last four YouGov polls show that over those polls an average of 3% of Labour 2019 voters would now vote Reform. The figure for 2019 Tory voters is 34%.

Only one party is being killed by Reform.
Who was doubting otherwise ?
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by Viv Stanshall »

Tenbury wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 1:59 pmLibrary.
The immigrants
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by bubbles1966 »

DaveWHU1964 wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:39 pm Only one party is being killed by Reform.
That's true if 2019 is the baseline, but I think we all know a repeat of that result (certainly on that scale) hasn't been on the cards for a couple of years.

If the baseline followed the prevailing view that Starmer will get elected with the mother of all majorities, something different is evident in the early weeks of the campaign.

Here are Reform's biggest % share improvements in the first 2-3 weeks of the election - which also shows who's dropping.

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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by sword »

@corneliusbeal
a/ they know they will never be invoked
clearly prevented by FPTP, so change to PR, as is being promoted by all bar Tory/Lab, promoted because it's fair
b/ most are unachievable and not costed, e.g. zero NHS waiting list after two years?
unachievable? Where there's a will there's a way
not costed? Well, they clearly are, pretty much on every page, there's even a summary 'balance sheet'
zero NHS waiting list in manifesto, yes. But after after two years? No. You must have heard/read that elsewhere.

@DaveWHU1964
no reality around where their astronomical sums are coming from
Well, they do list sources of savings on Manifesto p6 and they seem realistic
and their personal taxation costs are in line with the Greens from 2027 onwards
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DaveWHU1964
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by DaveWHU1964 »

Viv Stanshall wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 4:04 pm Who was doubting otherwise ?
Only one person on here as far as I can make out. Have a read of the posts on this page.
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by Danny's Dyer Acting »

In its first MRP model of the 2024 general election, Ipsos estimated Labour could win 453 seats and the Conservatives 115, giving Keir Starmer’s party a majority of 256 and inflicting the Tories’ worst ever defeat.

The Liberal Democrats could win 38 seats and the Scottish National party 15, three for the Greens and three for Reform UK. According to the projection, Nigel Farage is on track to overturn a huge Tory majority to win in Clacton while Jeremy Corbyn, standing as an independent, is predicted to lose to Labour in Islington North.

Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, with Rishi Sunak’s Tories on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... l-election

Labour - 70% of seats on a 43% share of votes
Tories - 18% / 25%
Lib Dems - 6% / 10%
Reform - 0.5% / 12%
Green - 0.5% / 6%

It looks like all bar the centre left of the horseshoe will be spending the next 5 years bemoaning FPTP.
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Cornelius Beal
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by Cornelius Beal »

Danny's Dyer Acting wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:20 pm Competency.

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He needs to be pressed further on this. No doubt he will throw a strop and turn on the presenter/ journalist like he always does.

https://x.com/Frances_Coppola/status/18 ... y18RQ&s=19
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by Big George »

Not even pretending anymore

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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by bubbles1966 »

A few locals:

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Francoisvander or else
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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by Francoisvander or else »

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Re: The 2024 General Election : 4th of July.

Post by Big George »

Danny's Dyer Acting wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:20 pm Competency.

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This is objectively funny

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