You not concerned by the high draw? Something like 14 of the last 19 winners have come from stalls 1-6
Official Betting Thread
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- r99c
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Re: Official Betting Thread
The draw bias for the Arc is negated when the heavens open. The weather forecast is absolutely abysmal, heavy rain in Paris, 90%+ 'precipitation probability' on BBC Weather all the way from 8pm Saturday to racing time on Sunday. Going to be a swamp if it goes ahead.
More concerned by how she goes on the ground than the draw on this basis. Japanese racecourses are constructed like football pitches rather than racecourses here which are essentially just fields - no high tech undersoil or any of that etc. Plus most of the time over there it's good to firm. However, she is by Bago who won the Arc and performed on **** French ground so I am hopeful.
Talking of the draw, the opposite is true in the Abbaye. Low draws important anyway but when it's heavy in the Abbaye if you're outside it's really not good. SUESA just got given stall 12 which is very very annoying and she has to be one of the most unlucky horses of the year. Hopefully she'll do it but a very tough ask.
- djbubbles
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Re: Official Betting Thread
The horse isnt in Gowran park 1.35 tomorrow so it must be Killarney on Sunday like he said
Re: Official Betting Thread
I love and hate nods like this. If it wins you think 'why didn't I have more on it' and if it gets beat you think 'why have I backed a horse I'd never heard of'.
Thanks for sharing it though and I'll be emotionally and financially invested on Sunday!
- r99c
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Re: Official Betting Thread
Early selection for the Prix de L'Abbaye on Sunday
My heart SCREAMS Suesa, I really really want her to win. But the draw has been bad and given how she ran at Royal Ascot on swamp-like ground, I'd be concerned for Sunday which will be similar conditions.
A Case Of You EW at 12/1 four places on BF/PaddyP is the selection. He improved last time to finish 2nd in the flying five stakes. He handles soft ground, ran poorly in it at Ascot but lost a shoe that day so thats a fine excuse. He has a very good stall draw here and most of the others drawn low just aren't as good. Strangely the market principles are all high drawn and that will very much go against them as the draw bias in the Abbaye (you want to be low) is pronounced when the ground is awful.
My heart SCREAMS Suesa, I really really want her to win. But the draw has been bad and given how she ran at Royal Ascot on swamp-like ground, I'd be concerned for Sunday which will be similar conditions.
A Case Of You EW at 12/1 four places on BF/PaddyP is the selection. He improved last time to finish 2nd in the flying five stakes. He handles soft ground, ran poorly in it at Ascot but lost a shoe that day so thats a fine excuse. He has a very good stall draw here and most of the others drawn low just aren't as good. Strangely the market principles are all high drawn and that will very much go against them as the draw bias in the Abbaye (you want to be low) is pronounced when the ground is awful.
- Billydinho
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Re: Official Betting Thread
Fancy one today at a price. 3.40 Ascot - Media Guest.
Progressive and dirt low weight with a trainer/owner combo who like to pop up at Ascot. Feels overpriced at 8/1 in an open race.
Progressive and dirt low weight with a trainer/owner combo who like to pop up at Ascot. Feels overpriced at 8/1 in an open race.
- djbubbles
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Re: Official Betting Thread
So the horse is running on Sunday Killarney 2.20. Trained by Queelly, ridden by Queelly and it was 3rd last time out. Info sounds accurate. Ive a feeling im gonna go big on it when i see the prices
- r99c
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Re: Official Betting Thread
He has loads to find on ratings but only 5 opponents. Might as well have a bet considering what he said, fingers crossed.
- Macca1973
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- r99c
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Re: Official Betting Thread
Today
Longchamp 1.33 - Real World 3/1
Longchamp 2.15 - Stradivarius 100/30
Newmarket 2.55 - Mother Earth 11/4
Ascot 3.15 - Great Ambassador 4/1
Lucky 15 on the above, plus a single on Arsenal to win at 11/8.
Longchamp 1.33 - Real World 3/1
Longchamp 2.15 - Stradivarius 100/30
Newmarket 2.55 - Mother Earth 11/4
Ascot 3.15 - Great Ambassador 4/1
Lucky 15 on the above, plus a single on Arsenal to win at 11/8.
- r99c
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Re: Official Betting Thread
2.20 Killarney - Aikenbreakinheart EW (as per DJ's tip in this thread above about having the jockey/trainer in his taxi)
1.15 Longchamp - Acer Alley (And EW Single)
1.50 Longchamp - Accakaba
3.50 Longchamp - Ambition
4.25 Longchamp - A Case of You
5.00 Longchamp - Pearls Galore
^EW Lucky 31
Longchamp 3.05 - CHRONO GENESIS nap and TORQUATOR TASSO small E/W
1.15 Longchamp - Acer Alley (And EW Single)
1.50 Longchamp - Accakaba
3.50 Longchamp - Ambition
4.25 Longchamp - A Case of You
5.00 Longchamp - Pearls Galore
^EW Lucky 31
Longchamp 3.05 - CHRONO GENESIS nap and TORQUATOR TASSO small E/W
- Billydinho
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Re: Official Betting Thread
Got 33/1 on Tarnawa for the Arc this time last year so tomorrow is a big day.
- r99c
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Re: Official Betting Thread
Good luck Billy. Hope its one of ours or/plus Adayar + Hurricane Lane, and not one of the random outsidersBillydinho wrote: ↑Sat Oct 02, 2021 11:27 pm Got 33/1 on Tarnawa for the Arc this time last year so tomorrow is a big day.
Not sure Tarnawa will appreciate the low draw given her normal hold up style, may well find a wall of horses and find it tough to get past. Vermeille and Opera stall draws for her last year were both very high which may have actully helped on the soft ground (low number draw bias is lessened in these races on crap ground)- I think they should switch it up and take her forward and then every chance.
Conversely, low number draw bias in Abbaye is pronounced on worse ground, so Suesa once again is unlucky. Therefore I will back A Case of You but my heart will be with Suesa
Re: Official Betting Thread
Very much looking forward to the Arc today, should be a fascinating race and the slop will make things even more interesting. For what it's worth I fancy Snowfall to edge this.
r99c, I too also like the look of Accakaba and Ambition too
r99c, I too also like the look of Accakaba and Ambition too
- The Old Man of Storr
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- djbubbles
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Re: Official Betting Thread
Weekend to write off.
Yesterday my own local team lost with last kick of the game to be relegated. All the horses i backed were donkeys. And West Ham lose with the last kick of the game.
Couldnt have had a shitter weekend
Yesterday my own local team lost with last kick of the game to be relegated. All the horses i backed were donkeys. And West Ham lose with the last kick of the game.
Couldnt have had a shitter weekend
- Macca1973
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- r99c
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Re: Official Betting Thread
Up goes the next ante post bet - make sure you back her before tomorrow...
MISE EN SCENE E/W- 33/1 (William Hill) - English 1,000 Guineas
She's by Siyouni and out of a Galileo dam. This combination has proven awesome so far - Sottsass, St Mark's Basilica, and then a solid progressive handicapper in the shape of Nugget and also Maqsad who was good previously.
Mise En Scene's dam is a half sister to a 1,000 Guineas winner too and the style in which she won over 7f at Goodwood recently - staying on late and thundering home when asked to quicken - puts her in great stead at a tread up to a mile. Goodwood and Newmarket are similar enough in terms of undulations so that hopefully bodes well. That Goodwood run boasts some very solid form and it was just her second start (she won her debut by 4L too).
Now... she takes on Inspiral and some other top fillies in the fillies mile 3.35 at Newmarket tomorrow, obviously a key trial for this race. The ground is pretty tacky which should work in our favour being by Siyouni, whereas Inspiral who is odds on favourite has only raced on good to firm. Therefore I will also tip her EW for this race where you can currently get 6/1. Should she win or go well then her odds for the 1,000 will likely be clipped in... therefore if you like the sound of the antepost bet then get on prior to tomorrow's race. We will know our destiny soon enough...
MISE EN SCENE E/W- 33/1 (William Hill) - English 1,000 Guineas
She's by Siyouni and out of a Galileo dam. This combination has proven awesome so far - Sottsass, St Mark's Basilica, and then a solid progressive handicapper in the shape of Nugget and also Maqsad who was good previously.
Mise En Scene's dam is a half sister to a 1,000 Guineas winner too and the style in which she won over 7f at Goodwood recently - staying on late and thundering home when asked to quicken - puts her in great stead at a tread up to a mile. Goodwood and Newmarket are similar enough in terms of undulations so that hopefully bodes well. That Goodwood run boasts some very solid form and it was just her second start (she won her debut by 4L too).
Now... she takes on Inspiral and some other top fillies in the fillies mile 3.35 at Newmarket tomorrow, obviously a key trial for this race. The ground is pretty tacky which should work in our favour being by Siyouni, whereas Inspiral who is odds on favourite has only raced on good to firm. Therefore I will also tip her EW for this race where you can currently get 6/1. Should she win or go well then her odds for the 1,000 will likely be clipped in... therefore if you like the sound of the antepost bet then get on prior to tomorrow's race. We will know our destiny soon enough...