Brexit referendum result aftermath

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SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

And when it picks up (for whatever reason) brexit voters will think brexit a success. Leave voters will say now is all about brexit but any recovery will be for other reasons.

We are in the position we chose to be in a referendum. The spectrum of how that plays out will keep media commentators in work for for decades.

If we were still in the economy would still be in a mess and we would be having arguments about being pulled down by the bureaucracy of Brussels v it's the covid effect/Ukraine/global downturn.
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sword
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by sword »

SammyLeeWasOffside wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 9:50 am ... will keep media commentators in work for for decades.
But, please God, not this topic!

Actually, thought your post salutary. Made a change from "this is Brexit's fault" followed by "it's not because..." posts.
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MB
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by MB »

That is correct Sammy. It was always one of those decisions where once made then it would be near impossible to compare what happens to what may of happened. The other factors you cite have such a material impact that it is quite difficult to unpick and there was always going to be short term pain for some while others would gain.

What I think you can judge however is how well the Government have done in exploiting the new opportunities created by leaving and so far that looks halfhearted at best. They really needs to step up to make this a longer term success.

I’ve always said it was never about leave or remain for me. It was about what the powers that be would do with the decision. Brexit done well or using remain to renegotiate our position in the EU were both fine for me. I just had serious doubts about whether the former was possible and those doubts “remain”.
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Cornelius Beal
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Cornelius Beal »

SammyLeeWasOffside wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 9:50 am And when it picks up (for whatever reason) brexit voters will think brexit a success. Leave voters will say now is all about brexit but any recovery will be for other reasons.

We are in the position we chose to be in a referendum. The spectrum of how that plays out will keep media commentators in work for for decades.

If we were still in the economy would still be in a mess and we would be having arguments about being pulled down by the bureaucracy of Brussels v it's the covid effect/Ukraine/global downturn.
When.........?
It will soon be a decade, so decades probably.

Non elected bureaucrats like Lord Frost made the nature of Brexit worse than it could have been.

Covid, Ukraine, global downturn. Yet we are still fairing worse than the rest. Wonder why? :chin:
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SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

Cornelius Beal wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:44 am When.........?
It will soon be a decade, so decades probably.

Non elected bureaucrats like Lord Frost made the nature of Brexit worse than it could have been.

Covid, Ukraine, global downturn. Yet we are still fairing worse than the rest. Wonder why? :chin:
When what? Will the economy pick up? If so I've no idea but it will, they always do irrespective of politics.

Of course they did that's what unelected bureaucrats do.

It depends which quarters figures you go on but yes there are times we are doing worse than countries in the EU. There were also times countries in the EU did worse than us while we were members. So membership or not isn't ever the definitive answer to economic performance. It's usually way more nuanced.
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Cornelius Beal
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Cornelius Beal »

When will the obvious and much predicted self economic damage of Brexit improve.


Will never understand the sheer bloody mindedness of the desire to leave, just to 'take back control'.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by bubbles1966 »

Cornelius Beal wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:31 pm When will the obvious and much predicted self economic damage of Brexit improve.
Given that we're #1 for foreign investment in Europe, #2 in the world - what kind of improvement are you expecting in investment?

Given that we have one of the lowest rates of unemployment, and a booming job opportunities market - what kind of improvement are you expecting?

Would you like an 8-12% unemployment rate just to fit in with the likes of France and Spain?

Are you hankering for the good old days of three million unemployed that we enjoyed on a once a decade basis in the EU?
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Hummer_I_mean_Hammer »

bubbles1966 wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:40 pm Given that we're #1 for foreign investment in Europe, #2 in the world - what kind of improvement are you expecting in investment?

Given that we have one of the lowest rates of unemployment, and a booming job opportunities market - what kind of improvement are you expecting?

Would you like an 8-12% unemployment rate just to fit in with the likes of France and Spain?

Are you hankering for the good old days of three million unemployed that we enjoyed on a once a decade basis in the EU?
Not knocking you, or your post bubbs, but all this investment, does it benefit the 'man in the street'? - serious question - if so, how?
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by bubbles1966 »

Hummer_I_mean_Hammer wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:45 pm Not knocking you, or your post bubbs, but all this investment, does it benefit the 'man in the street'? - serious question - if so, how?
In theory it creates jobs and economic activity.

This is the unemployment rate since about 1970.

Image

It's the exact opposite of 'tanking'.
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SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

Cornelius Beal wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:31 pm When will the obvious and much predicted self economic damage of Brexit improve.


Will never understand the sheer bloody mindedness of the desire to leave, just to 'take back control'.
Would you call strongest growth in the G7 improvement? If so 2022 is the year you are looking for. If you are after something else you will need to specify.

In a world of political competency changes on this scale take time and we certainly aren't in one of those. Lots of this stuff should have been sorted in the 2 year period after the referendum, all of it should have been thought about before calling a referendum but it wasn't. When we joined it caused lots of chaos, lots of regret and an economic hit and that was just a trade bloc.

Changes like this work in generational terms rather than instant right and wrong. We will just adjust to it over time or, if it's popular enough, we will have rejoined. Re-running arguments from 7 years ago isn't going to alter the situation today. Not understanding why people vote how they do but accepting that they did is essentially democracy.
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Cornelius Beal
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Cornelius Beal »

In theory levelling was supposed to erm.... Level up.

In theory there would be sunlit uplands once Brexit got done.

In theory shoes and clothes would be cheaper.

In theory we would seal a terrific new trade deal with the US.

....and on and on which it will go, on and on......
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SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

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SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

Cornelius Beal wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 5:34 pm In theory levelling was supposed to erm.... Level up.

In theory there would be sunlit uplands once Brexit got done.

In theory shoes and clothes would be cheaper.

In theory we would seal a terrific new trade deal with the US.

....and on and on which it will go, on and on......
Not sure what point you are trying to make here. That these things haven't happened yet?
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Cornelius Beal
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Cornelius Beal »

SammyLeeWasOffside wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 6:28 pm Not sure what point you are trying to make here. That these things haven't happened yet?
Exactly that. How long do the last of the true believers expect to wait, another decade, a lifetime?
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Samba »

Cornelius Beal wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 5:34 pm In theory levelling was supposed to erm.... Level up.

In theory there would be sunlit uplands once Brexit got done.

In theory shoes and clothes would be cheaper.

In theory we would seal a terrific new trade deal with the US.

....and on and on which it will go, on and on......
And I'm sure we were promised unicorns on the side of that bloody red bus..
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SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

Cornelius Beal wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 10:37 pm Exactly that. How long do the last of the true believers expect to wait, another decade, a lifetime?
As I said changes will be generational, slow evolution not over night revolution. That's how these things always work. Integration with EU markets took decades to spread, political integration was an ongoing drift since Maastricht. It takes time for people and businesses to adjust, to start up, to get used to the new world they operate in.

I'm still waiting for all sorts of stuff I've been promised by politicians. Forget levelling up I'm still on the look out for the northern powerhouse, regional parliament, HS2 etc.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by DaveWHU1964 »

That’s very Jacob Rees-Mogg-like on your time scales Sammy. :)

I don’t think that when they voted leave in 2016 that many had any inclination that the time table for Brexit working would be “generational”. I certainly don’t remember that being said, or even remotely the impression given by Johnson, Farage, Rees-Mogg, that bloody bus, etc.

You’re right in the sense that IF it is going to work it would take decades because clearly from opinion polls people don’t think it’s been working up to now. I can’t see a it’ll-be-alright-in-several-thousand-nights line being accepted by many.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Friend or Foé »

Cornelius Beal wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:44 am When.........?
It will soon be a decade, so decades probably.

Non elected bureaucrats like Lord Frost made the nature of Brexit worse than it could have been.

Covid, Ukraine, global downturn. Yet we are still fairing worse than the rest. Wonder why? :chin:
Are we ? There are EU member states with inflation at a higher rate than ours and some lower. Judging by those figures our rate appears to be at an average along with Germany. France has been largely protected with lower inflation due to the crisis being gas driven and a large chunk of their own energy security being nuclear.
Last edited by Friend or Foé on Fri Jan 27, 2023 7:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by EvilC »

Friend or Foé wrote: Fri Jan 27, 2023 7:49 am Are we ? There are EU member states with inflation at a higher rate than ours and some lower. Judging by those figures our rate appears to be at an average along with Germany. France has been largely protected with lower inflation due to the crisis being oil driven and a large chunk of their own energy security being nuclear.
The crisis is gas driven.
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