Big George wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 3:05 pm
I've kept out of this thread for a bit but I am trying to work out what the realsistic landing zone might be post 2025.
Rejoining isn't an option, too politically toxic both here and for the EU.
Pursuing this hard Brexit is killing us economically and, my big worry, the Island of Ireland isn't getting getting more dangerous.
The hard Brexit hang bangers will become less relevant after the next election, so is there a good ourcome that we can settle on?
I imagine we'll very very gradually have regulatory alignment again with the EU at the very minimum. Perhaps sector by sector, very slowly (eg boiling frog)
We're facing the real possibility of our economy being smaller than it was in 2019 at the next election. A lost half decade. Something will have to give at some point
In answer to George's question, I'd suggest that we probably need to see how the next couple of years pan out first.
It seems highly likely that we'll complete the accession process for the CPTPP this year, whilst a deal is expected with India as well. It also looks likely that some kind of automated process will finally be signed off on goods going to NI. This could have been done and completed two or three years ago if some people in the original negotiating process hadn't been so bloody-minded and determined to be awkward at the time.
As for the "Green" stuff, you've gotta laugh
The Europeans have been begging and pleading with Biden for months after he completely ignored them when he started offering huge state subsidies for green manufacturing in the US - I think he turns his hearing aid down whenever he sees them. He's only interested in competing with the Chinese and never gave the europeans a moment's thought and doesn't give a toss if factories relocate from Europe to the US because the US has plentiful cheap energy to offer them.
bubbles1966 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 6:40 pmIn answer to George's question, I'd suggest that we probably need to see how the next couple of years pan out first.
It seems highly likely that we'll complete the accession process for the CPTPP this year, whilst a deal is expected with India as well. It also looks likely that some kind of automated process will finally be signed off on goods going to NI. This could have been done and completed two or three years ago if some people in the original negotiating process hadn't been so bloody-minded and determined to be awkward at the time.
The India deal is miles off. Kemi Badenoch has been going round Delhi saying there won't be visas for Indian students and doing it in a way that is pissing everyone off.
We've only just applied for CPTPP membership. There are internal UK factors as well as massive issues with the current memebers to be resolved.
Neither of these will come close to replacing lost trade with the EU, if and when they happen.
We applied to join CPTPP in January 2021, completed the initial phase of negotiations in February 2022 and are engaged in the final 'market access' phase now. Negotiations have been ongoing for months.
The 21st century is going to be the century of the new world and the third world. Europe will be like a big care home by 2050.
bubbles1966 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:26 pm
The 21st century is going to be the century of the new world and the third world. Europe will be like a big care home by 2050.
Not sure putting our eggs in the pacific basket is a wise choice in that regard
Overall population in the EU is starting to dip, and the east and the east med is beginning to be hollowed out and places like Italy have seen the population dip by about 1.5 million in just eight years.
The demographics in Europe mean that the social models that were previously taken for granted look unsustainable, just like Japan. Africa, Asia, Sth America seem to be the places that offer 'growth'. We have to go there. So do all the other places that are running out of youngsters and overflowing with the elderly.
bubbles1966 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:31 pm
The demographics in Europe mean that the social models that were previously taken for granted look unsustainable, just like Japan. Africa, Asia, Sth America seem to be the places that offer 'growth'. We have to go there. So do all the other places that are running out of youngsters and overflowing with the elderly.
Which in turn will mean taxes increasing exponentially to keep up with pension payments, not only are the elderly increasing in numbers, they're loving longer too... Slippery slope...
We've had decades to address this known problem, decades to gradually switch to a self funding system. Instead governments have just decided to kick the can down the road and paper over the problem by increasing the population, which in turn has not only exacerbated that problem but created others. More mismanagement brought about by short terminism and cowardly leadership......
Growth is easy peasy when you have nothing (see eastern europe). Much harder when poverty is at a minimum and most people have what many asian, african or sth american people can only dream of right now. However, once they’ve had their 20-30 year upturn in fortune, we’re all ****ed, unless we can train penguins to make samsung phones in the antarctic.
It’s all pretty much based on how much cheaper labour you have against another market. We therefore stand little chance of seismic growth in comparison to India, Bangladesh, China, Rwanda, Liberia etc… you get the picture. 30 years ago it was much cheaper to produce in Czech or Poland, that is now greatly reduced in margin. Manufacturers all look east, not just UK.
Big George wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:29 pm
Not sure putting our eggs in the pacific basket is a wise choice in that regard
Japan is one of two properly developed Asian economies along with Sth Korea. As opposed to Europe where but the very few countries are economically developed.
Hard to judge, but I’d expect there to be a bit more growth in ctpp region than eurozone.
Credit where it's due, Sunak has at least toned down the rhetoric and seems keen to smooth relations with our closest and biggest trading partners. Not much chance of any improvement until that happened.
NI issues edging closer to easing but there's still the barriers of the DUP and ERG. Though both should become less of a problem when the DUP lose more power in the next election in The Province and the ERG depleted ( already with 'anyone can get an Irish passport Bridgen' on his way out) at our next election.
Whilst what is still basically The Brexit Party is still in power, I cant see things improving as much as they will and have to improve.
As for the Green aspect, there's nothing specifically green about increasing trade with Pacific countries, especially with our biggest market on our doorstep. Would need to be significantly more favourable than the rushed poor Australian and NZ deals too.
Our economy has tanked and currency has crashed because of Brexit, making us more attractive to predatory asset strippers. Yay!
The US now accounts for around a quarter of foreign direct investment in Britain, with companies across the Atlantic ramping up investments because they consider the UK as undervalued compared with Europe.
Inward foreign direct investment created almost 85,000 UK jobs between 2021 and 2022, according to UK government data.
British companies have also been the target of high-profile takeovers in recent years, including supermarket Morrisons, which was bought in 2021 by US private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice for £7.1bn.
Big George wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 3:54 pm
Our economy has tanked and currency has crashed because of Brexit, making us more attractive to predatory asset strippers. Yay!
Getting foreign investment is bad now? Losing it was a big plank in the remain argument, it was a good thing to have then.