SammyLeeWasOffside wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:28 am
Leicester east by-election on the horizon?
No because she will not resign ,although she was thrown out of the Labour Party she is still there as an independent.
Although she has had her sentence reduced on appeal she is still guilty.
Do I think she should have resigned,then yes of course.
Oldun wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:23 am
No because she will not resign ,although she was thrown out of the Labour Party she is still there as an independent.
Although she has had her sentence reduced on appeal she is still guilty.
Do I think she should have resigned,then yes of course.
She was a Labour MP at the time of the offense. Does that sum up the Labour party? Of course not.
mumbles87 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:06 am
He will be replaced as Tory candidate soon I'm sure but I doubt labour will get in
You’d have to find a moderate, local Labour candidate which would be difficult but equally the Conservatives will struggle as a lot of those involved in local politics are tarnished.
The last one Labour put up was a walking disaster up to and including having a blazing row at her kid’s school during the election and still got 26% of the vote so there is something to work with.
DaveWHU1964 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:59 am
... and as in the case of these two by-elections are using their votes wisely.
How are these things decided? Labour were 2nd in 2019. 10,000 voters essentially came to the conclusion that the party that was 2nd last time couldn't win but the party that was 3rd could. At the same time 8,000 lib Dem voters thought switching to 2nd placed labour was less appealing than risking the Tories getting in.
SammyLeeWasOffside wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:14 am
How are these things decided? Labour were 2nd in 2019. 10,000 voters essentially came to the conclusion that the party that was 2nd last time couldn't win but the party that was 3rd could. At the same time 8,000 lib Dem voters thought switching to 2nd placed labour was less appealing than risking the Tories getting in.
Lab--------LD-------Con
I'm not suggesting that's a perfect summation of where each party sits on a political spectrum but if you're looking to get the tories out it's far easier to convince people to make one step away from them rather than two.
SammyLeeWasOffside wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:18 am
Both the Tories had the whip removed and khan was expelled. Yet their actions sum up the entire Tory party?
I think that whilst Johnson is there, it's very difficult not to view there being a large issue with the Tory party as a whole. I have no doubt that there are some great Tory MP's doing their best up and down the country. And you are always going to have crap ones who need to be removed who shouldn't tarnish the whole party. But whilst Johnson is sitting there looking at the last 18 months of abberations, it's very difficult for any voter to think that the problem in the party isn't endemic.
SammyLeeWasOffside wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:51 am
She was a Labour MP at the time of the offense. Does that sum up the Labour party? Of course not.
At worst it sums up the toxic parts of the Labour party that parachuted her into the seat and then supported her when she got lifted, Starmer hasn't completely got shot of all of them yet.........
delbert wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:37 am
At worst it sums up the toxic parts of the Labour party that parachuted her into the seat and then supported her when she got lifted, Starmer hasn't completely got shot of all of them yet.........
Agreed.
It will be interesting to see how long the Conservative hangover from Johnson will be compared to the Labour one from Corbyn. The longer he stays, the harder it will be to remove the smell.
He has had a fair go at cleaning house. Abbott and McDonnell must be up for retirement at the next election as well, and I suppose he had to keep a couple of these people in to keep the lunatic fringe happy.
I'm not suggesting that's a perfect summation of where each party sits on a political spectrum but if you're looking to get the tories out it's far easier to convince people to make one step away from them rather than two.
It helps if you only give them one choice in a seat though. So who decided how to limit voter choice in Tiverton. It would be the same 1 move from lib Dem to labour so wouldn't 11k labour have a better chance than 8k lib Dem?
It will be interesting to see how long the Conservative hangover from Johnson will be compared to the Labour one from Corbyn. The longer he stays, the harder it will be to remove the smell.
Depends on other parties as much as anything assuming nothing changes and he stays.
Assuming a coalition from the dividing up of seats between lab and libs then it depends entirely on how that goes. If people feel they have been stitched up then the hangover won't last long. If they are upfront, work from one manifesto and get on with things properly then the hangover could well be very long term.
Tbh I have a sneaky feeling if the cost of living eases and he actually wanted to do the job rather than keep playing at it he could win the next election.
SammyLeeWasOffside wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:47 am
It helps if you only give them one choice in a seat though. So who decided how to limit voter choice in Tiverton. It would be the same 1 move from lib Dem to labour so wouldn't 11k labour have a better chance than 8k lib Dem?
Nobody decided to limit voter choice in Tiverton. All of the main parties stood a candidate didn't they?
Where's the first big pool of voters to attack in that seat? Tories or those who would vote Tory. That gives Lib Dems the chance to make big gains given the facts they are the closest to them of the other main parties and the whole region generally has a strong presence for the party historically (or at least stronger than Labour).
Once Labour voters see that happening they have a choice between sticking blindly to their preferred choice or taking the pragmatic option and trying to inflict another defeat on a government they most likely despise.
Is that helped by the Labour party then not really putting much effort in to the seat? Of course. But then you can find those examples for every party . I'm sure the Conservative's won't exactly be breaking their necks to fight for the seats in Liverpool and Manchester where Labour have 65-75% majorities.
It will be interesting to see how long the Conservative hangover from Johnson will be compared to the Labour one from Corbyn. The longer he stays, the harder it will be to remove the smell.
That very much depends on the Tories' next leader. Under normal circumstances I feel the Tories have a better grip on their loose cannons than Labour do, partly because they don't publicly have such a broad church so to speak..........
SammyLeeWasOffside wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:28 am
Leicester east by-election on the horizon?
Sadly not as she won't resign. Her recent appeal also means that a recall election can not happen now.
Labour have done everything can they do
Wakefield is a huge result for Labour not only the swing. It maybe a seat Labour held for 80 years it is a seat that has not really had a huge majority, this result is the biggest since 2005
I wouldn't read much much into these results other than people are mightily pissed off with Johnson. There's a big difference between changing your vote at a bye election, where you can voice disapproval without ousting the government, and doing it at a general election when there may be consequences.
The dwindling band of Johnsonists in the Tory party would have expected to hold at least one of the two, each of which were Uber-Leave areas and one was as eternally true blue as you could ever hope for.
There’s no way back for Johnson from this, and the longer he lingers in charge of the Tories the harder it will be for them to pretend things have changed in time for the next general election.
The problem they have is their own rules mean he's safe for another year. It would require them to change the rules to allow another vote before then. I don't know much of an upheaval this would entail, or if even Johnson would see the writing on the wall if they just started the process.