The Johnson Government 2019-2022

[Monkeybubbles]

Johnsonists

I'm liking the various implications of this term.

"Jacob Rees-Mogg, he's a bit of a Johnsonist....."

[Junco Partner]

That Nadine Dorries…total Johnsonist!

Yes, I think it captures them fairly well.

The problem they have is their own rules mean he's safe for another year. It would require them to change the rules to allow another vote before then…

Funny enough, it was the Johnsonists who pressed the 1922 Committee to concede the 12 month embargo can be circumvented when they were unhappy with May for not being bonkers about Brexit enough….the Germans have a pithy word for it I’m sure.

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

Is that helped by the Labour party then not really putting much effort in to the seat? Of course. But then you can find those examples for every party . I'm sure the Conservative's won't exactly be breaking their necks to fight for the seats in Liverpool and Manchester where Labour have 65-75% majorities.

Labour were 2nd last time and didn't bother this time. I take the point that Tory to lib Dem is an easier conversion but looking at the numbers the 10,000 voters labour didn't chase are more likely to be where the lib Dems picked up.

Which brings me back to the original question. Who decides these things? Who decided Tiverton was to go lib Dem not labour.

Have labour given up the seat for ever after encouraging their supporters to vote elsewhere?

If we have in effect a coalition opposition now how will that work policy wise? Presumably seats will be targeted before an election so will that list be public. The lib Dem/Tory majority of voters in Tiverton might like to know if they are actually helping forge a labour government.

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

Wakefield is a huge result for Labour not only the swing. It maybe a seat Labour held for 80 years it is a seat that has not really had a huge majority, this result is the biggest since 2005

But only about a thousand more than the last election (granted a lower turnout). I think it's labours lowest vote ever there, they lost last time with more votes.

[Prob]

But only about a thousand more than the last election (granted a lower turnout). I think it's labours lowest vote ever there, they lost last time with more votes.

Labour got 47.9% of the vote this time comparied to 39.8 in 2019.

Its a swing of 12.7% which without the other by election is a huge swing in the vote

Without Scotland Labour needs a swing of 13.8% with Scotland it needs 10.52% in a general election just to win a majority of 1

The way it is looking Boris is losing his seat at the next election either by the Tories kicking him out or Labour winning it.

[Monkeybubbles]

But only about a thousand more than the last election (granted a lower turnout). I think it's labours lowest vote ever there, they lost last time with more votes.

Which speaks volumes about how disengaged the Tory vote currently is.

Johnson is never going to pull this around unless he personally liberates Donbas, Arnie-style. He will have to go, he's too toxic.

The questions then are:

~ What's the best time to off him? Soon as possible, to give a new face a decent amount of time to clean up the debris? Or later on, so he can be blamed for everything?

~ How much irreparable damage has he done? How many ex-Tory voters can be persuaded to become born again Tory voters?

~ How many die-hard blinker-wearing Tory voters are there?

~ How good (or bad) will Labour/LibDems/whatever be at persuading waverers to NOT vote Tory?


There's my entry for "bleeding obvious 2022".

[wolf359]

Which speaks volumes about how disengaged the Tory vote currently is.

I'd imagine it is not just the Tory vote that is disengaged. Labour should be pissing it in the opinion polls with the state of Boris. However to me (as someone who doesn't follow all this very closely) no one is appealing or engaging the populous .

If there was an election tomorrow I wouldn't bother with any of them and I don't think I would be the only one. None of them do anything to make me want to use my vote, I suppose the only weapon Labour have is 'get him out' but it is not a very good platform to stand on is it? (I've only voted twice in my life and both of them were Conservative for reference)

[Danny's Dyer Acting]

Labour were 2nd last time and didn't bother this time. I take the point that Tory to lib Dem is an easier conversion but looking at the numbers the 10,000 voters labour didn't chase are more likely to be where the lib Dems picked up.

Which brings me back to the original question. Who decides these things? Who decided Tiverton was to go lib Dem not labour.

Have labour given up the seat for ever after encouraging their supporters to vote elsewhere?

If we have in effect a coalition opposition now how will that work policy wise? Presumably seats will be targeted before an election so will that list be public. The lib Dem/Tory majority of voters in Tiverton might like to know if they are actually helping forge a labour government.

Lib Dems decided to put a lot of resources into the seat
Labour decided not to bother

We don't have a coalition opposition. We have parties targeting seats in a way that makes sense for them politically. Exactly the same as the deal the tories struck with Farage last time out.

[EvilC]

Lib Dems decided to put a lot of resources into the seat
Labour decided not to bother

We don't have a coalition opposition. We have parties targeting seats in a way that makes sense for them politically. Exactly the same as the deal the tories struck with Farage last time out.

Exactly. This is a product of FPTP.

[Turns to Stone]

I've no ideaif Labour are capable of becoming popular, or if they have a grand plan. But, if they were to try and push forward with some decent policy and a few vote-winning plans, would now be the best time to do it anyway?

Would they not be better off keeping their powder dry, letting the current lot mug themselves off and then push forward when it matters? I don't know the answer to this and I'd imagine there are much cleverer people than me out there making that decision - but if Labour did shoot their load now, chances are they'd have screwed it up by when it matters.

Best to start with Noble and Yarmolenko - and have Rice and Antonio to bring on in November 2023 to blow them away?

[Danny's Dyer Acting]

Exactly. This is a product of FPTP.

Last night might be a sign that people are waking up the fact there are two equally valid ways to vote in a FPTP system

1) For the party you want.
2) Against the party you don't.

I've no particular feelings either way on the LDs but I'd have voted for them dressed in all yellow if I lived in Tiverton.

[bonzosbeard]

Things haven't got as bas as they can yet. The petrol and diesel prices will affect deliveries so another lot of money on top of the already high inflation and then the extra £100 a month for most on their fuel bills.

As long as not on a 3 day week by then.

The real thing though is the bin men. Did it for Labour in the 70s. When they go on strike and the bags build up whoever is in power then have had it.

[Macca1973]

I'm liking the various implications of this term.

"Jacob Rees-Mogg, he's a bit of a Johnsonist....."

When I first read it I thought it said Johnsonitis :shock: imagine catching that!

[OFT]

When I first read it I thought it said Johnsonitis :shock: imagine catching that!

Nadine Dorres has got it but only in her gums

[DaveWHU1964]

Who decides these things? Who decided Tiverton was to go lib Dem not labour.

The voters of Tiverton and Honiton. Who else? Unless you know different.

Have labour given up the seat for ever after encouraging their supporters to vote elsewhere?

Do you have a source showing that Labour was "encouraging their supporters to vote elsewhere"?

[DaveWHU1964]

Last night might be a sign that people are waking up the fact there are two equally valid ways to vote in a FPTP system

1) For the party you want.
2) Against the party you don't.

I've no particular feelings either way on the LDs but I'd have voted for them dressed in all yellow if I lived in Tiverton.

Yep, me too and I've never voted for them in my life.

for the the point you made. On present trajectory there will many millions in your second of the two valid ways to vote categories. I don't think that Conservative politicians or their supporters understand just how much the rest of us want their stain-on-this-country-government out. FPTP are the (current) rules - the Liberals were FPTP in Tiverton and Labour FPTP in Wakefield. End of.

[Junco Partner]

If you live by FPTP, you die by FPTP, I think some Tories are waking up to this cold hard reality now.

Last night’s results should be the catalyst for the opposition parties to start discussing a progressive alliance….it could put the Tories out of business for a generation or two, and that’s a prize worth campaigning for.

However, if that proves more chewy than it sounds then a quiet little non-aggression pact in the top 40 or so seats where the 3rd placed party has no chance will do just fine. ABC is the way to go

[Danny's Dyer Acting]

In hindsight "valid" is the wrong word there. Anything you do with your ballot that's legal is valid.

Should have said effective.

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

The voters of Tiverton and Honiton. Who else? Unless you know different.

Do you have a source showing that Labour was "encouraging their supporters to vote elsewhere"?

It was lucky 90% of labour voters knew to all vote the right way. You would think with no instruction at least a couple thousand more would stay loyal. How did the lib Dem voters know to vote lib Dem this time when logically labour as the 2nd place party would be the obvious place to put your cross.

I know this looks like a great idea but it feels just as dangerous a path as the one everyone wants to get off under Boris to me.

[OFT]

I've always voted Labour but would gleefully vote LD tor rid the country of this rotten mob and indeed the twat who 'represents' this constituency