The Labour Party Thread
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- DaveWHU1964
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Re: Next Labour Leader
If a general election were held today, regardless of what happens in Scotland, it would be a Blair-style land-slide. We'll see where we are in two years but at the moment Electoral Calculus calculate the likelihood of a Labour majority after a general election at 86%.
- SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Next Labour Leader
And the Chester swing gives them a 30 seat majority.DaveWHU1964 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 12:10 pm If a general election were held today, regardless of what happens in Scotland, it would be a Blair-style land-slide. We'll see where we are in two years but at the moment Electoral Calculus calculate the likelihood of a Labour majority after a general election at 86%.
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Personally, I think we need to take into account all of the factors, not just one. These include what national opinion polls are estimating as the current swing which is greater than the swing we saw in Chester. It also includes the circumstances of the actual seat and how voters normally react to a party's candidate when the old one left in disgrace. That will normally suppress that party's vote. I wonder if there has ever been a by-election where an MP left in these circumstances and their party still achieved a 13.75% swing? It also includes listening to expert analysis: John Curtice, probably the most respected polling expert there is has said that this is a result that far surpasses what opposition parties usually achieve in their own seats mid-parliament when they are expected to canter home anyway.
I think these and other factors need to be taken into account but if you are right on this, why do you think that Electral Calculus's estimation of the chances of a Labour majority are as high as 86%?
Before someone, not you, misinterprets my words now or later on, none of what I am saying is predicting a huge Labour majority in two years, just that if an election was held today it would 100% be a nailed on landslide, and the Tories have a huge job to do these next two years to become competitive.
One other thing from Chester. Earlier you seemed to indicate earlier that of all the parties the LibDems maybe happiest with last night. That's plain wrong. They were an irrelevance yesterday. Less than 2,500 voters - less than 10% of the vote. I mention this because I suspect in normal circumstances they would have done better last night. It's pretty clear that tactical voting took place and that Liberals voted Labour to ensure the Tories got annihilated and this was in a seat the Tories were never going to win anyway. We've seen Labour voters vote Liberal and vice versa with good Tory-stuffing effect. If that's replicated at a GE these polls we're seeing now, although appalling for the Tories, won't tell the half of the trouble hey are in.
As I type this, I've just seen that Sajiv Javed won't stand at the next election. He's joining a growing list of Tory MPs to say that. They could all have good personal reasons for doing so or just be being horribly pessimistic of their chances of re-election of course. Or it could just be that they see the writing on the wall.
- DaveWHU1964
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Re: Next Labour Leader
OK - so you're basing your small majority now/ probable coalition at a GE predictions on this one by-election? That's a take on it that the Tory party itself will cling to / push.SammyLeeWasOffside wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 12:54 pm And the Chester swing gives them a 30 seat majority.
Personally, I think we need to take into account all of the factors, not just one. These include what national opinion polls are estimating as the current swing which is greater than the swing we saw in Chester. It also includes the circumstances of the actual seat and how voters normally react to a party's candidate when the old one left in disgrace. That will normally suppress that party's vote. I wonder if there has ever been a by-election where an MP left in these circumstances and their party still achieved a 13.75% swing? It also includes listening to expert analysis: John Curtice, probably the most respected polling expert there is has said that this is a result that far surpasses what opposition parties usually achieve in their own seats mid-parliament when they are expected to canter home anyway.
I think these and other factors need to be taken into account but if you are right on this, why do you think that Electral Calculus's estimation of the chances of a Labour majority are as high as 86%?
Before someone, not you, misinterprets my words now or later on, none of what I am saying is predicting a huge Labour majority in two years, just that if an election was held today it would 100% be a nailed on landslide, and the Tories have a huge job to do these next two years to become competitive.
One other thing from Chester. Earlier you seemed to indicate earlier that of all the parties the LibDems maybe happiest with last night. That's plain wrong. They were an irrelevance yesterday. Less than 2,500 voters - less than 10% of the vote. I mention this because I suspect in normal circumstances they would have done better last night. It's pretty clear that tactical voting took place and that Liberals voted Labour to ensure the Tories got annihilated and this was in a seat the Tories were never going to win anyway. We've seen Labour voters vote Liberal and vice versa with good Tory-stuffing effect. If that's replicated at a GE these polls we're seeing now, although appalling for the Tories, won't tell the half of the trouble hey are in.
As I type this, I've just seen that Sajiv Javed won't stand at the next election. He's joining a growing list of Tory MPs to say that. They could all have good personal reasons for doing so or just be being horribly pessimistic of their chances of re-election of course. Or it could just be that they see the writing on the wall.
- SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Next Labour Leader
I'm saying I don't think it will be a landslide by the time the election comes round.
- Johnny Byrne's Boots
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Re: Next Labour Leader
Don't a lot of people vote differently in a by-election anyway? People who want to send a message of dissatisfaction to the government knowing it won't change anything?
Re: Next Labour Leader
If the Tories could be trusted to act with decency during the next 2 years then maybeSammyLeeWasOffside wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:37 pm I'm saying I don't think it will be a landslide by the time the election comes round.
Fact is its own goal after own goal
Time to go 5 at the back
- SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Next Labour Leader
It's the numbers really. 80 seats down needs a hammering just to get back level. So the chances of a landslide win from this position are next to none.
If the Tories pick up just a modicum in the next 2 years then a coalition will probably be needed to get labour in.
Re: Next Labour Leader
Those seats that are borrowed to "get brexit done" will returnSammyLeeWasOffside wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:21 pm It's the numbers really. 80 seats down needs a hammering just to get back level. So the chances of a landslide win from this position are next to none.
If the Tories pick up just a modicum in the next 2 years then a coalition will probably be needed to get labour in.
All the red wall will return
It's going to be a majority labour
- bubbles1966
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- SammyLeeWasOffside
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- bubbles1966
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Re: Next Labour Leader
I think that is 'most seats' rather than majority (at least 326 seats).
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... l-majority
- MB
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- DaveWHU1964
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Re: Next Labour Leader
^^^^ Man, they are struggling - it's great to see.
"It has emerged ....." really translates as "our lot have ****ed the country up and ****ed it over. But our owners' interests are best served by them so we have dug like f*** to find something, anything on Starmer. This is all we can find but we're going to blow it up so he looks like a **** in the eyes of those who would never vote for him anyway".
"It has emerged ....." really translates as "our lot have ****ed the country up and ****ed it over. But our owners' interests are best served by them so we have dug like f*** to find something, anything on Starmer. This is all we can find but we're going to blow it up so he looks like a **** in the eyes of those who would never vote for him anyway".
- Plashet Grove Pete
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Re: Next Labour Leader
Will no one stand up for the food critics? Poor Giles Coren was "forced to send his daughter to a private school"DaveWHU1964 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:43 pm ^^^^ Man, they are struggling - it's great to see.
"It has emerged ....." really translates as "our lot have ****ed the country up and ****ed it over. But our owners' interests are best served by them so we have dug like **** to find something, anything on Starmer. This is all we can find but we're going to blow it up so he looks like a **** in the eyes of those who would never vote for him anyway".
- sendô
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Re: Next Labour Leader
“Man sends children to local school”.
The quality of journalism at the Mail really is something else.
The quality of journalism at the Mail really is something else.
- SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Next Labour Leader
It's hardly his fault he can afford to live in a good catchment area.
How do they manage to get to spend 1.9m a year though? The primary ours went to is about the same size but has a budget of 700k.
How do they manage to get to spend 1.9m a year though? The primary ours went to is about the same size but has a budget of 700k.
- sendô
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- SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Next Labour Leader
Lol
But where does the money come from? How can a state education system have that level of inequality in it? I thought they were supposed to be funded per pupil.
Kids at this school are getting almost 3 times the funding as ours. No wonder there is inequality in results and opportunities if some schools are minted while others need teachers to pay for books.