The Labour Party Thread

[DaveWHU1964]

That’s true Nick.

It’s just that the turnaround since 2019 is quite striking. That 17% Labour lead in these key seats represents a 13% Tory to Labour swing which in electoral terms is huge.

With Truss ditching levelling up and the damage caused by wages not keeping up with inflation it’s hard to see those figures improving over time for the Tories.

[sendô]

Wonder how they'll feel about Sturgeon's hand shoved firmly up Starmer's jacksy?

Or Starmer being dictated to by London zone 1-2 Labour with it's ideas of how society should look.

I see bubbs is regurgitating the Daily Mail general election strategy already.

[-DL-]

That’s true Nick.

It’s just that the turnaround since 2019 is quite striking. That 17% Labour lead in these key seats represents a 13% Tory to Labour swing which in electoral terms is huge.

With Truss ditching levelling up and the damage caused by wages not keeping up with inflation it’s hard to see those figures improving over time for the Tories.

I think what's shown recently, as in over the last decade or so, is what is said in opinion polls is one thing, but in that split second you're going to stick that X on a ballot paper is another.

Labour really need to make sure they can capitalise on the 12 years of Tory government, and hope that those 'don't knows' don't become 'not Labour'. They'll always have their core support up in The North, in the Red Wall - it's not called Red Wall for nothing - and if they can't get those don't knows back on side, the 13% swing to Labour may well see them getting results that are not too dissimilar to 2019.

Labour have 2 and a bit years to get it right - but then - so do the Tories. It's still a level playing field, especially s we now have a new government - and if Truss delivers (I'm not saying she will) then Labour will still have a monumental task to make inroads to The Tories when it matter most - at the ballot box.

[bubbles1966]

I see bubbs is regurgitating the Daily Mail general election strategy already.

It is almost certain to be a consideration as much as many, myself included, wish it wasn't.

As for opinion polls - the old wisdom was that the opposition needed to be at least 20 points clear in mid-term to win, while the polls were wildly out of tune with the eventual outcomes in 2017 and 2019 just weeks beforehand.

So, shovel load of salt required, and watch for the old phenomenon of the 'shy Tory'. They are in the 'don't knows' but voted for them last time. It's in the data tables of the poll that's been posted.

I should, god willing, be in a very different place personally by the time the election comes round.

I'm expecting an unstable coalition of some kind to be the outcome.

[Plashet Grove Pete]

I think what's shown recently, as in over the last decade or so, is what is said in opinion polls is one thing, but in that split second you're going to stick that X on a ballot paper is another.

Labour really need to make sure they can capitalise on the 12 years of Tory government, and hope that those 'don't knows' don't become 'not Labour'. They'll always have their core support up in The North, in the Red Wall - it's not called Red Wall for nothing - and if they can't get those don't knows back on side, the 13% swing to Labour may well see them getting results that are not too dissimilar to 2019.

Labour have 2 and a bit years to get it right - but then - so do the Tories. It's still a level playing field, especially s we now have a new government - and if Truss delivers (I'm not saying she will) then Labour will still have a monumental task to make inroads to The Tories when it matter most - at the ballot box.

Agreed. And a hung Parliament could (for once) be interesting - a forced coalition would neutralise some of the more rabid elements of both of the main parties - arguably leading to something approaching more of a Lib Dem mandate.

[DaveWHU1964]

It's still a level playing field, especially s we now have a new government …

I take on board all you’ve said and agree with much of it - the only true test we’ve seen in an actual ballot was Wakefield and then in that split second you spoke of we know what choice voters made.

We don’t have a new government. They can’t be allowed to yet again claim they are new and have nothing to do with the last lot - which were … themselves.

The only minister to have been part of government from Cameron, through May and Johnson to now? Liz Truss. That it may want to portray itself as a new government indicates how **** this lot’s legacy has been up until now.

As an aside, the other thing these polls don’t take into account is tactical voting. I think that’s going to be a biggie.

[sendô]

It is almost certain to be a consideration as much as many, myself included, wish it wasn't.

I'm not totally convinced it will be. People seem to be taking it for granted that the SNP will clean up in Scotland every single election. The reality is they merely stepped into the void left by the Lib Dems after they got into bed with the Tories after 2015. The SNP simply have not delivered in Scotland despite being pretty much unopposed there for years now, and their anti-English rhetoric will only carry them for so long. The cracks are starting to form.

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

As labour haven't won in so long is traditional seats (that voted for them in 2010, 2015 and 2019) going back to them enough? If the red wall goes back to red then we are still heading for a coalition aren't we?

It feels much more like the country doesn't actually want any of the parties as they stand in charge.

[bubbles1966]

I'm not totally convinced it will be. People seem to be taking it for granted that the SNP will clean up in Scotland every single election. The reality is they merely stepped into the void left by the Lib Dems after they got into bed with the Tories after 2015. The SNP simply have not delivered in Scotland despite being pretty much unopposed there for years now, and their anti-English rhetoric will only carry them for so long. The cracks are starting to form.

I could accept 5 years of Labour if it meant the end of Mary Doll.

[DaveWHU1964]

I think the SNP will continue to dominate Scotland for the foreseeable. But I think the card that the Tories played in 2015 of Milliband in Salmond’s pocket will have about a quarter of the impact it had back then.

Other ammunition has gone too. No Corbyn to rail about. No Brexit to get done (yeah, I know) even as Brexit’s benefits are seen to be for the employers not the workers - bonfire if our rights anyone? Campaign on that.

All these things are less salient than before but it’s all they’ve got - oh, woke stuff of course. But whether what constitutes or doesn’t constitute a woman will appear as important to people just trying to stay afloat is another matter. The party, its media and its friends will work hard to whip up a ferment and panic but it has less material to work with.

[DaveWHU1964]

As labour haven't won in so long is traditional seats (that voted for them in 2010, 2015 and 2019) going back to them enough?

No, but whilst this is just an aggregate of polling and the election should be/ is two years away, clearly it can’t just be the red wall seats where (currently) they are making progress …

https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/09/britainpredicts/

[sendô]

All these things are less salient than before but it’s all they’ve got - oh, woke stuff of course. But whether what constitutes or doesn’t constitute a woman will appear as important to people just trying to stay afloat is another matter. The party, its media and its friends will work hard to whip up a ferment and panic but it has less material to work with.

It all largely depends on how much money people have got in their pockets and if they're able to make ends meet. If people who were recently paying £100pm on fuel are staring at a potential £500pm bill get govt help from Trussonomics that means their bill is only £300pm, they'll think they've got a result, the Tories are great and they can be trusted with the economy once again. The reality of where that £200pm difference has come from will only bite them later.

[DaveWHU1964]

I know that’s their hope Sends and maybe it’ll work but if on top of what will still be an increase in fuel bills whilst energy companies’ profits are protected by us, you’ve also got wages not keeping up with forty year high inflation and a government telling workers/ voters that they have too many working rights then that’s a situation you’d need to be a political alchemist to gain benefit from. Your first sentence is the key of course.

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

No, but whilst this is just an aggregate of polling and the election should be/ is two years away, clearly it can’t just be the red wall seats where (currently) they are making progress …

https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/09/britainpredicts/

Right now probably not but I guess truss will pivot to their traditional support as well. So we could end up back where we were in 2015/17 but without Corbyn or Johnson and with the economy in a mess. It will come down floaters in marginals again most likely. Or a pact. The lib Dems and starmer are a fit (a bit like they were with Cameron) if it comes to a coalition but I think for it to take root labour needs to be the biggest party, not entirely sure they can do that. I'm not sure how the labour party fits as well (again a bit like with the Cameron coalition).

The parties all need to fracture a bit imo. Line the factions up and pick teams into about 7 main parties.

[Tenbury]

'It's the economy, Stupid' only goes so far this side of the pond. Rightly or wrongly the UK public are besotted with the NHS.
This is an area where the tories have always had difficulties with public trust. Currently THE NHS is teetering on the brink (waiting list, ambulance response times, etc,) and it isn't even winter.... yet.
If they've finally discovered the Magic Money Tree in the No.10 garden, spending on the NHS, Education, and so on ( a regular occurrence in the run upto an election) is going to suffer.

[bubbles1966]

Starmer is pretty boring. He doesn't give the impression of having any bright ideas or anything. Just a bloke who'll plod along doing the job. Steady Eddie.

That has it's appeal at the moment.

Personally, I think the country could do with a bit of peace and quiet for a few years.

Not sure your average Labour "activist" would agree with that and if they saw me thinking , well, okay, it should probably set alarm bells ringing with them.

[smuts]

I agree with that. Starmer is pretty meat and potatoes and may be what we need for a while.

[sendô]

Starmer is the sort of person who would probably be very good at doing an important job like Prime Minister, but he has absolutely no salesmanship to be able to convince the country that he could do it.

Luckily for him he'll now be going up against a similarly dull Liz Truss and not a charismatic Boris Johnson.

[the pink palermo]

Starmer failed to hammer Truss on her decision not to apply further windfall taxes to energy companies.

Her very first act was to pass on the full cost of higher energy to the public : spreading it out over 20 years won't lessen the burden.

[Tenbury]

More to the point, it'll artificially inflate future household energy price levels.
Should the cost of gas/oil/whatever fall in the future, this won't be reflected in household bills. Another win for the power companies.