Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

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mushy
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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by mushy » Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:09 pm

stu1 wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:44 pm
Unfortunately I think Arsenal are better than you are giving them credit for.

I agree, they looked a much better side then us in our recent game, they also gave City a go last weekend.
I see no reason for them not to continue this form and they have no European commitments this season. Think they will finish in the top four quite easily.
It's The Europa for us.

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ironilunga
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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by ironilunga » Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:29 pm

mushy wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:09 pm
I agree, they looked a much better side then us in our recent game, they also gave City a go last weekend.
I see no reason for them not to continue this form and they have no European commitments this season. Think they will finish in the top four quite easily.
It's The Europa for us.
It’s a case for me of shooting for the moon (top 4) but likely landing amongst the stars (top 7). Arsenal suddenly appear very strong and cohesive and as you say have few other distractions.

It’s great what we are going well in the league but for me it’s a cover bet for the Europa League. I would love us to progress in that.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by Diogenes » Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:35 pm

Halfway through the season and I have to say, so far it has been excellent and better than expected. If we reach the quarter final stage of Europa, top 6-7 finish and say last 16 of FA Cup, I would still say excellent. Anything better, in any of those, is mind blowingly stupendous. Anything less is still very, very good. Top 4? Get outa here.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by Tezza65 » Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:34 pm

mushy wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:09 pm
I agree, they looked a much better side then us in our recent game, they also gave City a go last weekend.
I see no reason for them not to continue this form and they have no European commitments this season. Think they will finish in the top four quite easily.
It's The Europa for us.
It's funny how the bookies see it though.

United and Spurs joint favorites for 4th at 15/8.

Do they know something we don't?

We are big outsiders at 11/2

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by sendô » Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:51 pm

Tezza65 wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:34 pm
It's funny how the bookies see it though.

United and Spurs joint favorites for 4th at 15/8.

Do they know something we don't?

We are big outsiders at 11/2
Bookies don't just set odds on how likely they think something is to happen, they also have to consider who is likely to bet. So more people are likely to bet of Man Utd or Spurs coming 4th than us, given they're richer clubs than us with a history of finishing higher, therefore the bookies will shorten the odds on those teams in order to lessen their exposure.

Conversely, they're also more likely to offer slightly longer odds on us in order to encourage people to bet on the less likely option.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by paulhs1 » Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:31 pm

Some new re arranged fixtures announced today for the 18th and 19th of Jan...

Leicester v Spurs
Brighton V Chelsea

So Spurs now play Arsenal, Leicester and Chelsea and
Chelsea play City, Brighton and Spurs all between the 15th and 23rd Jan.

Will be interesting to see the league table at that point and after we go to Old Trafford.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by bubbles1966 » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:04 am

Tezza65 wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:34 pm
Do they know something we don't?
The odds often reflect where the gamblers are placing their money.

There continues to be this almost blind-spot where we are concerned, which says that this 65 league game run that we are on is a flash in the pan; it's not baked into many people's thinking that we finished above Arsenal and Spurs last year, and just two off Chelsea. They all seem to be seeing past that. For that reason, we'll remain the outsiders - even if we pulled ahead but there were a number of games to go.

Teams will drift in and out of form over a season, and they will have times where absences bite or where everyone is fit and on song. That's happened at opposite ends of the spectrum for us and Arsenal during December.

There's also the randomness of covid. If we really do have 4 first teamers with it to add to Zouma, Ogbonna and Cresswell, even games like Norwich and Leeds become more challenging.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by Tezza65 » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:31 am

sendô wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:51 pm
Bookies don't just set odds on how likely they think something is to happen, they also have to consider who is likely to bet. So more people are likely to bet of Man Utd or Spurs coming 4th than us, given they're richer clubs than us with a history of finishing higher, therefore the bookies will shorten the odds on those teams in order to lessen their exposure.

Conversely, they're also more likely to offer slightly longer odds on us in order to encourage people to bet on the less likely option.
Very good point.

A lot of punters will stick money on Man U,just because of who they are.Very similar to Real,Madrid,Barcelona,Liverpool and Bayern Munich.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by mushy » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:48 am

Tezza65 wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:34 pm
It's funny how the bookies see it though.

United and Spurs joint favorites for 4th at 15/8.

Do they know something we don't?

We are big outsiders at 11/2
I do find it strange that those two clubs are favoured by the bookies, especially when you look at the shambles that is Manchester United.
What are the current Arsenal odds for top four?

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by mushy » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:51 am

ironilunga wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:29 pm


It’s great what we are going well in the league but for me it’s a cover bet for the Europa League. I would love us to progress in that.
This for me, would love to do well in the Europa, would take that above all else.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by Crouchend_Hammer » Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:18 am


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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by Albie Beck » Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:48 pm

Crouchend_Hammer wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:18 am
I often take a look at this to determine likelihood
...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... pa-league/
So if I understood it evens to make the QF and 3/1 for the SF? Good if so.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by il_martello_di_genovesi » Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:21 pm

Crouchend_Hammer wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:18 am
I often take a look at this to determine likelihood

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... er-league/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... pa-league/
Not bad, but their rating system must be slightly different to what I'm familiar with, maybe as theirs aren't being looked at in regards to producing prices? Tottenham look a little bit too high and Aston Villa way too high. Man Utd possibly a little on the low side. Man Utd are going to be around EVS at Aston Villa and that's generally the case for any of those sorts of team (including us). Newcastle looks a little stale too. Their price is obviously a bit artificial as they have money coming in, but this gives them a 25% chance of staying up, price wise they are given about a 57% chance. I would certainly love a bet at their side of things. Effectively making them 3/1 to stay up?
Last edited by il_martello_di_genovesi on Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by il_martello_di_genovesi » Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:22 pm

Albie Beck wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:48 pm
So if I understood it evens to make the QF and 3/1 for the SF? Good if so.
You would be correct. We actually are a bit shorter than that, but they are a decent guide, their rating system must be slightly different.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by funky chicken » Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:31 pm

The first bit of bad luck that’s gone against the Spuds….

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/foot ... says.html

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by hammers92 » Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:33 pm

funky chicken wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:31 pm
The first bit of bad luck that’s gone against the Spuds….

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/foot ... says.html
Considering Kane isn’t turning up for work at the moment, I don’t know where they’re going to score goals.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by sendô » Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:54 pm

Conte will have them eeking out dull 1-0 wins, but the Spurs faithful will lap it up.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by Rays Rock » Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:16 pm

Crouchend_Hammer wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:18 am
I often take a look at this to determine likelihood

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... er-league/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... pa-league/
Interesting stuff.
Although if you input their calculations for last season at this point, they just about had every club in spitting distance of finishing above us. Spurs with a high % chance of CL spot too. Which is quite funny considering how everything turned out.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by paulhs1 » Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:28 pm

We need 6-7 points between now and the international break.

Two very winnable games against Norwich and Leeds and then Man U away.

Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs all have tough games (mostly against each other) and this is our opportunity to steal a march, jump into 4th spot and put pressure on the chasing pack.

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Re: Who Will Beat Us To Top 4?

Post by funky chicken » Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:22 pm

6 points behind 2nd place Chelsea now.

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