-DL- wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:03 pm
Was just saying to the Mrs, what with the sanctions and this war having more of an effect on us economically, than it would appear to be having on Russia, what with gas, oil, fuel, etc all going sky-high because of it and affecting the major economies in Europe and elsewhere, could we soon start to see Western Governments start to lean on Ukraine a little to find a compromise to end the war?
Something along the lines of give up Donbass, end the war, so we can all get back to normal, the oil and gas flows again, you can export your grains and vegetable oil, and we'll admit you to The EU and help you rebuild your country.
I think we are close to this point.
I guess if you do that you have to get what is left of Ukraine into NATO and probably put troops on the border to prevent the inevitable second bite.
EvilC wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:43 pm
I think we are close to this point.
I guess if you do that you have to get what is left of Ukraine into NATO and probably put troops on the border to prevent the inevitable second bite.
Hasn’t Zelenskyy said that any peace deal has to go through a referendum? I’m not convinced he’d the above over the line with the Ukrainian people unless things get a lot worse (at which point the Russians won’t accept it).
What happens when the separatists we don’t recognise but Russia does start shooting at NATO troops?
MB wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:16 pm
Hasn’t Zelenskyy said that any peace deal has to go through a referendum? I’m not convinced he’d the above over the line with the Ukrainian people unless things get a lot worse (at which point the Russians won’t accept it).
What happens when the separatists we don’t recognise but Russia does start shooting at NATO troops?
I am getting the impression that Zelensky is enjoying his performances a little too much. Actors do tend to blur life and art and to me anyway its starting reflect that.
This may be taken out of the people of Ukraines hands if Western Europe end up on a 3 day week.
RichieRiv wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:33 pm
I am getting the impression that Zelensky is enjoying his performances a little too much. Actors do tend to blur life and art and to me anyway its starting reflect that.
This may be taken out of the people of Ukraines hands if Western Europe end up on a 3 day week.
The opinion polls are something like 85% against a negotiated settlement.
MB wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:16 pm
Hasn’t Zelenskyy said that any peace deal has to go through a referendum? I’m not convinced he’d the above over the line with the Ukrainian people unless things get a lot worse (at which point the Russians won’t accept it).
What happens when the separatists we don’t recognise but Russia does start shooting at NATO troops?
Quite possibly. If the West begins to cut off support they'll end up giving up something whether it is all or part of the country. The referendum should really be a formality at that point as they can't win a war with harsh language.
EvilC wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:00 pm
Quite possibly. If the West begins to cut off support they'll end up giving up something whether it is all or part of the country. The referendum should really be a formality at that point as they can't win a war with harsh language.
You are assuming a country which has seen what they have will act rationally. Would you?
The West will need to find the tipping point of too dangerous for the Russians to keep attacking, but not dangerous enough for Ukraine to counter attack en masse.
We then have peacekeeping forces there for how long? How long has the Korean War been going on?
MB wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:51 pm
You are assuming a country which has seen what they have will act rationally. Would you?
The West will need to find the tipping point of too dangerous for the Russians to keep attacking, but not dangerous enough for Ukraine to counter attack en masse.
We then have peacekeeping forces there for how long? How long has the Korean War been going on?
Well if they don’t have any weapons I sort of assume they’ll be rather ineffective at defending their country so the referendum doesn’t count for much.
The requirement for peacekeepers is basically a function of however mental Putin or his replacement is.
Something along the lines of give up Donbass, end the war, so we can all get back to normal, the oil and gas flows again, you can export your grains and vegetable oil, and we'll admit you to The EU and help you rebuild your country.
The French, Germans and Italians are already making these noises.
It has not gone down well with the ex Warsaw pact countries.
EvilC wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:00 pm
Quite possibly. If the West begins to cut off support they'll end up giving up something whether it is all or part of the country. The referendum should really be a formality at that point as they can't win a war with harsh language.
EvilC wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:57 pm
Well if they don’t have any weapons I sort of assume they’ll be rather ineffective at defending their country so the referendum doesn’t count for much.
The requirement for peacekeepers is basically a function of however mental Putin or his replacement is.
The issue Ukraine will soon face is we cannot produce ammunition and missiles quickly enough to supply them and maintain a credible defensive shield at home.
And by we, I mean all of the NATO countries, including the USA.
The British Army in a recent exercise that was gamed out ran out of amunition in les than 8 days. Completely out.
It's estimated that killing one Russian soidier is taking 250,000 rounds of ammunition.
The West simply lack the factories to produce the munitions.
Looks like one region will be completely under Russian control in the not too distant future and then you imagine they will turn their attention to the other.
MoD said yesterday that the separatist forces have suffered 55% casualties (based on information published by the separatists). Brutal.and seems to tally with the idea the Russians have used them as fodder.
Probably close to the natural stalemate point do let's see what happens.
Whats he made out of?