Russian invasion of Ukraine

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bonzosbeard
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Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by bonzosbeard »

About 100,000 troops now near border. Sabre rattling or something serious?
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Clacton-ammer
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by Clacton-ammer »

Well if they only have Sabre's the Ukranian's will be ok as they have guns and everything.

Who knows, probably flexing muscles again, I see the "leaders of the free world" have all had a telephone call and uncle Joe has a call scheduled with Putin, so that should sort it all out.
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by EvilC »

With the gas price as it is, Putin has an advantage that he didn't have a while ago. They are always doing stuff on that border but there seems to be genuine concern here.
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by simonpaulthomas »

I was tattooing a lad who’s in the army last week, and he said that the government/forces are keeping a close eye on the situation, as you’d expect.

They’ve got some training excercises around that area right now, as luck would have it.
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MB
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by MB »

The tone of the reporting feels different this time. It really wouldn’t take much for this to turn nasty. Some pretence about Ukrainian Government troops crossing the border or similar would be my prediction.
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by Hummer_I_mean_Hammer »

MB wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:30 am The tone of the reporting feels different this time. It really wouldn’t take much for this to turn nasty. Some pretence about Ukrainian Government troops crossing the border or similar would be my prediction.
Protection of ethic russians would be my guess.
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by EvilC »

I remember when they were holidaying in Crimea last time out.
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by Tenbury »

Much as this will be potrayed as Putin expansionism, he wouldnt have had the (apparent) level of support for these policies were it not for the post Cold War expansion of NATO, as it's seen from their eyes. NATO overtures to the Ukrainians hasn't helped this. With goodwill on both sides it's not ridiculous to envisage a scenario whereby Ukraine was an unaligned buffer state (as per Tito's Yugoslavia but without all the Balkan complications). Would hardly be surprising though if the decisive elements proved to be gas supplies, and the Russian and US elections.
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by sendô »

I'd wager we might see Russia fully annexing Donetsk and Lukansk a la Crimea on the pretext of "protecting Russian citizens". 100,000 is quite the troop build up.

The west will complain, protest and organise some more sanctions, but given that NATO does not have a substantial troop buildup in the region, Ukraine could not hold off Russia in all out war for long enough for troops to arrive and that no-one wants to ignite WW3 off of the back of a couple of remote regions in eastern Ukraine, nothing much else will happen.
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by PF. »

I'd be surprised if they decided to fully invade during the winter as logistically much tougher.

Smoke and mirrors from Putin I'd wager.
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by sendô »

PF. wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:27 am I'd be surprised if they decided to fully invade during the winter as logistically much tougher.

Smoke and mirrors from Putin I'd wager.
Logistically harder for them, logistically impossible for any counter?
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by PF. »

That depends really - I suggest that an invasion more often than not would require troops quite literally on the ground.

I couldn't imagine the requirement to counter with infantry and armour. NATO would surely bomb the lines and stop any significant advancement. But then, I don't earn a wage in Whitehall so all very speculative!

Still think it's Putin engineering or deflecting something closer to Moscow - he's no idiot and I can't imagine he'd risk all-out war.
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by Hummer_I_mean_Hammer »

PF. wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:36 am That depends really - I suggest that an invasion more often than not would require troops quite literally on the ground.

I couldn't imagine the requirement to counter with infantry and armour. NATO would surely bomb the lines and stop any significant advancement. But then, I don't earn a wage in Whitehall so all very speculative!

Still think it's Putin engineering or deflecting something closer to Moscow - he's no idiot and I can't imagine he'd risk all-out war.
Putin sees it as the perfct time.

He knows that if he leaves it any longer the UK will have brought back its training group from Canada to the ME, so they'd be much easier to deploy in the region.

He's running scared of our might... :fist:

That and mostly all of Europe has proven through covid that they really don't give the slightest crap about their neighbours. .
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by EvilC »

Tenbury wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 10:06 am Much as this will be potrayed as Putin expansionism, he wouldnt have had the (apparent) level of support for these policies were it not for the post Cold War expansion of NATO, as it's seen from their eyes. NATO overtures to the Ukrainians hasn't helped this. With goodwill on both sides it's not ridiculous to envisage a scenario whereby Ukraine was an unaligned buffer state (as per Tito's Yugoslavia but without all the Balkan complications). Would hardly be surprising though if the decisive elements proved to be gas supplies, and the Russian and US elections.
Ukraine is (well, was) a sovereign nation. If it wants to allow whatever NATO activity within its borders, or become a NATO member, I don't see that as a reason to allow breaking off (another) chunk of the country.
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by Ironing Board »

EvilC wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 12:08 pm Ukraine is (well, was) a sovereign nation. If it wants to allow whatever NATO activity within its borders, or become a NATO member, I don't see that as a reason to allow breaking off (another) chunk of the country.
Apart from American guarantees not to expand NATO at the end of the Cold War? If a hostile regime decided to make Ireland and Scandinavia part of a hostile military alliance would you think the same thing?
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by 666 hammer »

Putin is losing popularity in Russia, so what better way to regain popularity than front off the old enemy. Ukraine is also a excuse for Winter sun ❄️😎 from - 10 to a warm 0C.
Also sanctions are laughable considering the EU relies so much on Russian gas.
If the West really wants to scare Russia we must not rely on them for fuel.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.expres ... n-deal/amp
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by FreeWheeling »

Hummer_I_mean_Hammer wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 12:03 pm Putin sees it as the perfct time.

He knows that if he leaves it any longer the UK will have brought back its training group from Canada to the ME, so they'd be much easier to deploy in the region.

He's running scared of our might... :fist:

That and mostly all of Europe has proven through covid that they really don't give the slightest crap about their neighbours. .
:crossed: .. We would be lucky to gather a force capable of protecting the IOW at the moment , let alone a large chunk of Eastern Europe.
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by EvilC »

Ironing Board wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 4:39 am Apart from American guarantees not to expand NATO at the end of the Cold War? If a hostile regime decided to make Ireland and Scandinavia part of a hostile military alliance would you think the same thing?
The US doesn’t have direct control over NATO. I don’t know what guarantees they gave but they can’t give guarantees regarding an entity they don’t have direct control over.

If you were a “hostile regime” with Russia on your border, would you not take measures to protect your country? They’ve already stolen a part of it.
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by Monkeybubbles »

I reckon Johnson has been on the blower.

"I say Vlad, amicus meus specialis, we've gone a bit gung ho and the plebs have cottoned on to us. It's getting a tad sticky. If you want me to continue ****ing up the western world, you'll need to stage a bit of a diversion, there's a good chap".


Note to Richie: I'm making that up.
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Re: Russian troop build up on Ukraine border.

Post by The Old Man of Storr »

Liz Truss threatening Russia with ' consequences ' this morning .

Yeah , ok , Liz .
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