Russian invasion of Ukraine

[MB]

Using just a bottle of coke and packet of mentos.. love it when a plan comes together..

One slow motion montage and BA would have converted a Lada into a submersible. Don't know why PP thinks it needs specialist skills...

[EvilC]

This is a long explanation of why some people think that the flattening of Bahkmut is occurring because of a beef between Prigozhin and the Russian MoD.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ch-12-2023

[MB]

A Russian jet has collided with a US Drone over the Balck Sea. No one hurt it sounds like. US saying two jets were sent to intercept the drone.

Worrying times.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64957792

[bubbles1966]

This is filtering through into everything - inflation creating interest rate rises, leading to banks and pensions funds being exposed due to investments in government bonds.

The Italians are also claiming that the latest wave of migrant arrivals is being caused by the Malian authorities telling the French to sling their hook in terms of their civil conflict and bringing in this Wagner mob as their enforcers.

[MB]

Agreed Bubbs, seems much more far reaching than anyone expected. Quite bleak really with no real end in sight


Not the most positive news on the front either. Looks like Bakhmut is now killing too many Ukrainians and plenty of reports that most of the experienced Ukrainian fighters are dead or wounded. We will see what the European trained lot can do when the counter attack gets launched but there seems to be some pessimism amongst the Ukrainian ranks.

They are throwing in barely trained conscripts in a not dissimilar way to Russia to try and steady the front long enough to launch the counter attack in a meaningful way.

I have a bad feeling this won't end soon.

[Dimension Diver]

I think it's a bit early to worry about it never ending considering that Ukraine haven't even begun their long-awaited Spring campaign. Before the Kharkiv and Kherson campaigns there was a similar period when nothing seemed to be happening and it seemed like there was an endless deadlock. In reality Ukraine were quietly planning and building up resources for the campaigns.

It's only now that they've started receiving large numbers of Leopards, Bradleys and other Western tanks and armoured vehicles. They'll need weeks or months of training, but will give Ukraine a massive edge over Russia that they didn't have even during the Kharkiv blitzkrieg.

[Hummer_I_mean_Hammer]

I think it's a bit early to worry about it never ending considering that Ukraine haven't even begun their long-awaited Spring campaign.

I don't know whats more worrying. A prolonged campaign, or Putin being forced into a lose-lose situation.

[Dimension Diver]

He'll do what every other dictator does when he loses a war but survives. He'll use his propaganda apparatus to declare victory. Remember when Saddam got kicked out of Kuwait by a US-led coalition, and went out onto a balcony declaring victory and shooting a shotgun into the air?

Russian propaganda has already reframed it as not a Russian invasion, but an attack by the West on Russia. Once a ceasefire is declared, he'll declare victory over the West and everything will go back to normal, just like it did with Saddam.

[MB]

I think it's a bit early to worry about it never ending considering that Ukraine haven't even begun their long-awaited Spring campaign. Before the Kharkiv and Kherson campaigns there was a similar period when nothing seemed to be happening and it seemed like there was an endless deadlock. In reality Ukraine were quietly planning and building up resources for the campaigns.

It's only now that they've started receiving large numbers of Leopards, Bradleys and other Western tanks and armoured vehicles. They'll need weeks or months of training, but will give Ukraine a massive edge over Russia that they didn't have even during the Kharkiv blitzkrieg.

But something is happening. The few remaining experienced soldiers in the Ukrainian army are being killed and injured on a daily basis and replaced with the barely trained who are lucky to last a few days based on some reports.

Now this is small numbers and localised reporting but Bakhmut and other areas are taking a high toll on both sides. Reports of 1 to 5 and 1 to 7 from January are no longer true based on reports I have seen of people who have visited the frontlines recently.

A lot of weight is being put on well trained, well armed but very green soldiers carrying out a big counter attack.

Don't get me wrong, by all accounts Russia lacks the resources to breakout even if they do punch through but they can play this game of swapping blood for blood a lot longer than Ukraine can even at current levels.

[Hummer_I_mean_Hammer]

Don't get me wrong, by all accounts Russia lacks the resources to breakout even if they do punch through but they can play this game of swapping blood for blood a lot longer than Ukraine can even at current levels.

They have the numbers that's for sure, its how they beat the Nazis afterall.

[last.caress]

I mean obviously Putin and his higher-ups are fine with the Motherland's traditional sacrificial numbers game since it so often yields results but what about the everyman Russian on the ground? The infantry, the conscripts, the civilians? Are they happy playing blood-for-blood when they're the blood?

I can understand the willingness to sacrifice themselves if an invading force is inside Russia's borders and I can even understand them doing it for religion if they're that way disposed (not that I agree with any disagreement - let alone war - in the name of a fictional pixie). But just so's Putin can relive the good old hammer 'n' sickle days? Surely soon they've got to start thinking, "Hmm, no, I don't think I want to die for no real reason"?

[Hummer_I_mean_Hammer]

Maybe they have reintroduced the officer with a gun 'holding the line' principle?

Where if you retreat you get shot? I wouldn't be too suprised if there were somethings like that in place, just to keep the grunts in line.

[MB]

I mean obviously Putin and his higher-ups are fine with the Motherland's traditional sacrificial numbers game since it so often yields results but what about the everyman Russian on the ground? The infantry, the conscripts, the civilians? Are they happy playing blood-for-blood when they're the blood?

I can understand the willingness to sacrifice themselves if an invading force is inside Russia's borders and I can even understand them doing it for religion if they're that way disposed (not that I agree with any disagreement - let alone war - in the name of a fictional pixie). But just so's Putin can relive the good old hammer 'n' sickle days? Surely soon they've got to start thinking, "Hmm, no, I don't think I want to die for no real reason"?

The toll is mostly falling on those in the Eastern provinces in terms of mobilisation and the resulting deaths and even then is spread about.

Clearly some elite units have been chewed up as well which means relatives in Moscow or St Petersburg but the propaganda is such that the interviews I’ve seen have suggested it has reinforced the commitment to the war. They feel the death of their loved one has to mean something and believe the stories of Nazis etc.

A Russian client of mine was saying how she cannot even talk to her family about it. She has been over here over a decade and they all think she has been brainwashed by the west!

[MB]

Maybe they have reintroduced the officer with a gun 'holding the line' principle?

Where if you retreat you get shot? I wouldn't be too suprised if there were somethings like that in place, just to keep the grunts in line.

There have certainly been stories about it for some of the mobilised with officers shooting near them if they refuse orders.

We’ve all heard the stories of how Wagner enforce discipline.

[Johnny Byrne's Boots]

Poland to send four fighter jets to Ukraine 'in coming days'

Poland will send four Soviet-era Mig fighter jets to Ukraine - becoming the first Nato country to send planes since Russia invaded last year.

Polish President Andrzej Duda said they would be sent in the coming days, with others handed over in the future.

Though a welcome boost to Ukraine's air defence, the extra jets are not expected to be decisive in the war.

The deputy speaker of Ukraine's parliament Olena Kondratyuk said she hoped more countries would follow.

Other Nato countries are considering sending the Soviet-era planes, which Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly.


more...

[Dimension Diver]

Now this is small numbers and localised reporting but Bakhmut and other areas are taking a high toll on both sides. Reports of 1 to 5 and 1 to 7 from January are no longer true based on reports I have seen of people who have visited the frontlines recently.

A lot of weight is being put on well trained, well armed but very green soldiers carrying out a big counter attack.

Who knows, really. If the death toll is anywhere near 7-1, then it's a disaster for Russia. People reporting from the front might not think it's that high anymore, but do they have better information than the Ukrainian high command? There were similar depressing reports from the front during the defense of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, and yet a month or two later the Ukrainians were able to launch a massive counter-attack.

Maybe the Ukie high command is wrong to defend Bakhmut, but they seem to have been wrong about few things in the past. They shocked everyone, including the military experts, by throwing back the Russians at Kyiv. They surprised everyone again at Kharkiv, and they retook Kherson masterfully, with limited casualties and little damage to the city. Have they suddenly lost the plot? Maybe, but I have my doubts. More likely they're successfully playing rope-a-dope in Bakhmut, tiring out the Russians far more than they themselves are being weakened.

[Dimension Diver]

This is an interesting interview with a German military analyst if you're after an optimistic take on Bakhmut. It auto-translates from German.

[RichieRiv]

They have the numbers that's for sure, its how they beat the Nazis afterall.

In fairness, it was the USSR that beat the Germans. There were 11 more countries that manpower could be drawn from.

[Toulouse_Iron]

I don't know whats more worrying. A prolonged campaign, or Putin being forced into a lose-lose situation.

Depends who you're worrying about...

[MB]

In fairness, it was the USSR that beat the Germans. There were 11 more countries that manpower could be drawn from.

Birth rates are very different these days as well. Russia generally struggles for manpower, especially more skilled manpower. Hence things like the autoloader on the tanks which likes to go pop. That is all so they can make it a three man tank rather than four man.

Looks like they are also running out of equipment. More T-62s have been spotted in Russian use and even second world war weapons.

They will regroup and have another push but looks like they are running out of momentum. We shall see what Ukraine has come May.