Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Hummer_I_mean_Hammer]

Given Macron’s comments yesterday, this won’t achieve what Putin wants re the West and I don’t think there is any negotiation to be had. If anything, this seems to be increase the calls for more support for Ukrainian. Truss announced we will fund them well into next year and now there is talk of non-Soviet era tanks and even aircraft being provided if the Ukrainians can show they have the ability to maintain them independently.

Entry into NATO by a thousand cuts type of thing, surely?

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

"We will give you gas."
"No."

Those will be short negotiations..

I will cease hostilities, supply gas and remove the more imminent threat of ww3/nuclear war. Your economies can begin to pick up, your people afford to pay their bills, your business's won't be shutting en masse. You won't have a long cold winter where the electorate face shortage and black outs.

I agree it's unlikely to be taken up at this point but I can imagine Putin thinking he has some leverage. I suspect there are a few more political cracks in the west than we have heard about.

Again I'm not saying that should be a deal, we would just be back here again in a year or 2. Right now though it seems to me there are 2 endgame options, someone removes putin or we plough on until he gets desperate enough to go nuclear.

[EvilC]

I will cease hostilities, supply gas and remove the more imminent threat of ww3/nuclear war. Your economies can begin to pick up, your people afford to pay their bills, your business's won't be shutting en masse. You won't have a long cold winter where the electorate face shortage and black outs.

I agree it's unlikely to be taken up at this point but I can imagine Putin thinking he has some leverage. I suspect there are a few more political cracks in the west than we have heard about.

Again I'm not saying that should be a deal, we would just be back here again in a year or 2. Right now though it seems to me there are 2 endgame options, someone removes putin or we plough on until he gets desperate enough to go nuclear.

But it does nothing to guarantee you a supply of gas, and the West knows that.

[Dimension Diver]

To be fair, he can cease hostilities and move back to the Feb 23 borders any time he wants. He doesn't need any agreement for that.

It's worth remembering that if you give in to blackmail, you'll be proving that blackmail works, and it'll be used again and again.

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

To be fair, he can cease hostilities and move back to the Feb 23 borders any time he wants. He doesn't need any agreement for that.

It's worth remembering that if you give in to blackmail, you'll be proving that blackmail works, and it'll be used again and again.

Agreed.

[MB]

Entry into NATO by a thousand cuts type of thing, surely?

Probably makes it more inevitable longer term, but we are talking longer term according to most of the articles I’ve read,

[sussexhammer74]

Read on another forum and very left field theory.

This referendum to be held in the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine will return a vote of No and they don't want to be part of Russia. He pulls his troops saying that "Neo Nazis" have corrupted the minds of these people but a vote is a vote and will stand by the results.

He retreats and fights to live another day. I mean it's possible but I cannot see it happening. He has nukes and keeps threatening to use them. Whether he does or not, he has that card to play. Given that his equipment isnt up to much kop now, you have got to wonder how well his nukes have been maintained.

Still the costs of flights from Russia to Turkey is starting to rocket up. Maybe the possible conscripts are looking at long term holidays.

[dasnutnock3]

[Dimension Diver]

This referendum to be held in the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine will return a vote of No and they don't want to be part of Russia. He pulls his troops saying that "Neo Nazis" have corrupted the minds of these people but a vote is a vote and will stand by the results.

If only this was true. The Russian hypernationalists would never accept it. They don't care what 'hohols" think any more than they care what Chechens think.

[sussexhammer74]

https://www.flightradar24.com/RUMOR12/2d8bfd83

two B-52's flying up the Norwegian coast.

[MB]

And now the penny drops. The mobilisation order isn’t about getting more soldiers so much as preventing the ones they do have from walking away when their contracts end:

[sendô]

Putin's "It's NATO troops fighting in Ukraine" comments will be about shoring up domestic support, as most Russians are probably naturally mistrusting of NATO whilst sympathetic to Ukranians.

[Loftyhammer]

Putin's "It's NATO troops fighting in Ukraine" comments will be about shoring up domestic support, as most Russians are probably naturally mistrusting of NATO whilst sympathetic to Ukranians.

Yeah definitely trying to shift the identity of the boogeyman....

[EvilC]

[hammer etc]

When you've got prison inmates with a week's worth of training immediately surrendering at Bahkmut,

They aren't stupid, they are most likely being treated better than they were in prison (Geneva Convention) and will go home after six months. Anyone for a prisoner swap, no thanks we are fine here, come back in February.

[Dimension Diver]

True, but I was thinking about it. If they get a prisoner swap they probably have to go back to Russian prisons which are meant to be some of the most brutal in the world. Not to mention that they might be persecuted for surrendering. If they beg to stay in Ukraine they might be forced to see out their prison sentence but in presumably less brutal surroundings.

I can imagine that Wagner clown Prickozhin or whatever thinking he was in the Dirty Dozen when he was making that speech to the inmates. In reality the inmates were probably whispering to each other “What they say is true. There really is a sucker born every minute.”

[alf git]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62988234.amp

British nationals freed in prisoner exchange.

[Greatest Cockney Rip Off]

Putin's "It's NATO troops fighting in Ukraine" comments will be about shoring up domestic support, as most Russians are probably naturally mistrusting of NATO whilst sympathetic to Ukranians.

Conveniently forgetting about the Russian troops who had been fighting in Donbass since 2014.

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

Arrested protesters being sent to Ukraine.

[Hummer_I_mean_Hammer]

Arrested protesters being sent to Ukraine.

Human shields?