MB wrote: ↑Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:16 pm
Hopefully Bonzo, but it will take a while to get everyone trained up and to get the numbers to where it can make a significant difference. Could be late spring early summer before it can make a difference.
It is just a case of how much damage the Russian attritional tactics do in the meantime.
According to the podcast I'm listen to if you take an infantryman it will take a while to train them up. However if you take a tanker, regardless of whether their experience is Soviet era tanks, it won't take long to upskill them.
So how effective these tanks will be will be based on how many Ukrainian tankers there are.
You can also guarantee their training has already started. Ukrainian troops have been training on Salisbury Plain and Catterick for months.
RichieRiv wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:56 pm
According to the podcast I'm listen to if you take an infantryman it will take a while to train them up. However if you take a tanker, regardless of whether their experience is Soviet era tanks, it won't take long to upskill them.
So how effective these tanks will be will be based on how many Ukrainian tankers there are.
You can also guarantee their training has already started. Ukrainian troops have been training on Salisbury Plain and Catterick for months.
It isn’t just the training but also getting the tanks to Ukraine. The M1 Abrahams for example are a new order rather than coming from existing US stocks. Some of the European pledges are questionable in terms of how serviceable they are.
During the Kharkiv blitzkrieg Ukrainians initially attacked the town of Balakliia, and that was supposedly done with a column of about ten tanks. So I suspect they're far from useless. The Russian airforce has largely been grounded by Stingers and other anti-aircraft missiles.
Generally though the Ukrainians are desperate for tanks and were ecstatic when they were delivered, and they probably understand the war better than anyone.
That they do DD, let's hope the tanks help the Ukranians hugely. Just interested in what the Russians have to combat them and how effective they could be.
Clacton-ammer wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 7:24 am
That they do DD, let's hope the tanks help the Ukranians hugely. Just interested in what the Russians have to combat them and how effective they could be.
The Russians successfully stopped an armoured counter attack around Bakhmut a few months back with ground attack aircraft. The report was the Ukrainians lost half a dozen vehicles but it cost the Russians at least three aircraft. So it is a threat, but as DD points out the Ukrainians can extract a price.
The Russians must be at a critical point in terms of the loss of pilots by this stage.
The easiest way the Russians have to stop a tank is with another tank. Tank on tank combat is meant to be more common than we see as there are just rarely drones in the air to film it like there is with artillery strikes or drone strikes. The Ukrainians are outgunned hence why the new tanks are so important so they can engage the newer Russian tanks at longer range.
How much of a game changer it will be, we will see in the Spring.
Meanwhile the Russians continue to take small amounts of ground with their human wave “tactics”. I read yesterday that several hundred thousand more called up and being transported to the front.
Clacton-ammer wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:09 am
Cheers MB
Several hundred thousand more, wow :shock:
Not sure if you saw the tweet I posted the other day but the Cabinet was briefed that Russian casualties have hit 188,000! So it is just making "good" the losses. A fair proportion of those losses are regular army and they are being replaced by basically conscripts.
They suffered something like 30,000 casualties in a month of fighting around Bakhmut and have had to pull the Wagner lot out as they ran out of prisoners to use as fodder. The Russian airborne have taken over hence the slowing down of things there.
When you read the accounts and see some of the videos, it really is First World War stuff. Waves of infantry with no armour support and limited artillery as they are/were running out of ammunition.
Unfortunately the numbers menatbthey made progress and Ukrainian losses are also supposed to be heavy and probably in the low thousands.
^^^
The fact that Germany has to be pressured into providing any kind of support...
I'm pleased that the UK at least is generally at the forefront of sending over bigger and better toys for the Ukrainians. You can tell the Russians really, really, really hate us for it which can only mean that what we are doing is having a real effect on the ground.
the pink palermo wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 10:18 am
This war really has exposed NATO's soft underbelly and the cowardice of some parts of the EU.
The support being given to Ukraine is shamefully too little.
It exposes how ill equipped NATO is for a war, especially a long war, where air power doesn't dominant.
Yes political will has been lacking, but in a number of cases there isn't the kit or it isn't in good enough condition to send. Some of the tanks being pledged now need weeks of repairs or even to be made before they can be sent.
Take shells as another example, the US produces as many 150mm shells in a year as the Russians were firing off in a month! That production is being ramped up but all that takes time.
NATO is built around firing from 50,000 feet or 20 miles out at sea. Capacity which isn't easy to transfer to Ukraine.
That isn't meant to excuse political decisions, but I do think it is important context.
My gut says Putin is going to launch a huge attack, sacrificing tens of thousands of livesbefore the end of the month and report it as a glorious assault on the "Nazis" in the noble Russian tradition. He's too far into the lie to turn back now. There will be extensive domestic coverage of troops going in but none of the body bags coming out. The families of the poor conscrips concerned will know the truth, though.
The west has a fortnight to get as much support over to Northern (Belarus border?) and Eastern Ukraine to conteract the sheer quantity of cannon fodder to be sent over, or the losses on both sides will be mind-boggling.
Vladimir Putin has compared Russia's invasion of Ukraine to the fight against Nazi Germany, in a speech to mark the 80th anniversary of the conclusion of the Battle of Stalingrad.
Citing Germany's decision to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, he claimed history was repeating itself.
"It's unbelievable but true," he said. "We are again being threatened by German Leopard tanks."
Germany is one of many countries helping Ukraine defend its territory.
Russia launched its bloody, full-scale invasion almost one year ago, prompting Western countries to send weapons and aid to the government in Kyiv.
Speaking in Volgograd - the modern name for Stalingrad - Mr Putin hinted that he could seek to move beyond conventional weapons.
"Those who hope to defeat Russia on the battlefield do not understand, it seems, that a modern war with Russia will be very different for them," the 70-year-old leader said.
"We are not sending our tanks to their borders, but we have the means to respond. It won't be limited to the use of armoured hardware. Everyone must understand this."
We're being labelled as Nazis now by Putin as he has to fight us all.
He is even mentioning other types of weaponry. I have many reasons to hate Boris but I believe his comment about Putin and the missile.
I like to hope the Russian people will get a grip.
But, they way Hitler and Trump managed to indoctrine views onto people about being victims and saying who the guilty are, I am concerned how things are moving as a father.
MB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 7:15 pm
For those interested in Wagner tactics, this is a good read. Basically German tactics from April 1918 but on a smaller scale
Cynical but important observation:
Wagner convicts are promised high salary, financial reward and freedom.
If they survive.
If not, these costs are saved.
Ideally, strategic goals are achieved with 0 surviving convicts left.
Generally, there is little incentive to preserve them.