Russian invasion of Ukraine

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delbert
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by delbert »

MB wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 9:24 am Birth rates are very different these days as well. Russia generally struggles for manpower, especially more skilled manpower. Hence things like the autoloader on the tanks which likes to go pop. That is all so they can make it a three man tank rather than four man.

Looks like they are also running out of equipment. More T-62s have been spotted in Russian use and even second world war weapons.

They will regroup and have another push but looks like they are running out of momentum. We shall see what Ukraine has come May.
I seem to recall they went down that route predominately to lower the profile of the tank, which in turn means it's harder for them to adopt a defensive hull down position, which they wasn't too fussed about as their tanks are designed primarily for attack. From a Western perspective, one amusing aspect of the auto loader is it's habit of occasionally loading the commanders arm into the breech before attempting to fire him down range..... :lol:
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Johnny Byrne's Boots »

Now Slovakia promises MiG 29s to Ukraine
Russia has threatened to destroy any fighter jets given to Ukraine by its allies, after two countries promised planes.

Slovakia became the second Nato country to pledge Kyiv some MiG-29 aircraft on Friday, a day after Poland.

Slovakia's fleet was grounded last year and it no longer uses the jets.

Ukraine has asked Western countries for modern jets, but because of long training times, these are seen only as long-term options.

It sees extra aircraft as important for its defences and possible counter-attacks, a year into Russia's invasion.

Other Nato countries are considering sending planes such as the MiG-29 - a model which dates from the time of the Soviet Union - which Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov condemned the plans, saying that the aircraft would not affect the outcome of Moscow's "special military operation", as it calls the war.

He said they would only "bring additional woes for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people".

more...
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by last.caress »

The International Criminal Court in The Hague has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. Little more than symbolic at this stage but you never know.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-new ... s-03-17-23
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Puff Daddy »

Doubt Putin will lose any sleep over this. He's safe as house's, more or less, locked up inside The Kremlin and scarcely ever ventures outside
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Heysel76 »

Puff Daddy wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 6:58 pm Doubt Putin will lose any sleep over this. He's safe as house's, more or less, locked up inside The Kremlin and scarcely ever ventures outside
Yeah, but it might limit where he can go for his hols 8-)
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by MB »

Two aircraft and an attack helicopter shot down in recent days and now looks like a big jump in Russian losses. They are throwing everything at Bakhmut. This could actually break them.

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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by jastons »

last.caress wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 6:43 pm The International Criminal Court in The Hague has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. Little more than symbolic at this stage but you never know.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-new ... s-03-17-23
What does this mean in real terms? If Putin steps foot inside a country where the ICC has jurisdiction, can he be arrested on the spot?
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by LittleChris »

Perhaps a USD 10M bounty might encourage his deliverence ?
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Dimension Diver »

Thinking about the upcoming Ukrainian offensive, I think all they need to do this year is cut the landbridge to Crimea at Melitopol and Mariupol. Then use those positions to destroy the Kerch bridge. After that, the remainder of the Russian invasion force in Kherson province and Crimea will be cut off from the rest of Russia in the same way that Russian troops were once stranded in Kherson city with the bridges cut behind them. With their supply (especially ammunition supply) cut off, it'll be a matter of time before they surrender or try to retreat, presumably to Crimea.

In other words, Ukraine don't need to take back all their territory this year, they just need to cut the Russian invasion force into two at Melitopol/Mariupol/Berdyansk, then sit back while the stranded Russians try to cope with winter.

So because the task may not be that big, I think the Ukrainians will have plenty of time to do it this year. There's no reason to rush it, they need to wait until they're absolutely ready to make sure it's a success, which means waiting until their new tanks and even fighters are ready for action.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Friend or Foé »

Breaking

Putin turns himself in at Stoke Newington police station.

Source
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by MB »

That seems to be what a lot of people expect to happen including the Russians based on where they are placing their defences.

The problem with that plan is exactly what makes it "easy" for Ukraine to counter attack there will make it difficult to defend if the Russians counter in turn. That isn't the easiest area to defend and a coordinated (I know...) push from each side by Russia would be hard to defend against.

Whether the Russians have the mobile forces to do so though is debatable.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Dimension Diver »

Yeah, obviously Russia will be desperate to break out, but I suspect the lesson of the last 7-8 months is that they have little to no offensive ability anymore. Petty thugs, gangsters and barely trained mobiks might be able to defend a trench, but it doesn't look like they have the ability to take even a mid-sized town like Bakhmut, and as far as I'm aware, little of Ukraine's territory in Khrakiv has been retaken.

There's a big difference between wanting to retake land and actually being able to do it!
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by last.caress »

jastons wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 10:14 pm What does this mean in real terms? If Putin steps foot inside a country where the ICC has jurisdiction, can he be arrested on the spot?
Technically speaking, that's exactly what it means. The reality is probably a little trickier than that. We're talking about the leader of the Russian Federation after all. Which country really wants to be the one to intercept him at the airport, slap the bracelets on him, tell him , "You're ****ing nicked, me old beauty!" and then ship him to The Hague like a next-day Amazon parcel? We probably would. The Yanks almost certainly would. Obviously the Ukrainians would in a heartbeat. But ihs plans for a victory lap around Kyiv are probably on ice for the time being, as are any arrangements for a well-earned fortnight in Disneyland, or Butlins. The ICC won't sit in absentia so, until someone thinks it's in their political interest to put him in front of them, and has the power to do so (a rival in the Kremlin who wants a quick path back to European diplomatic ties, maybe? Does such a person/faction even exist in or near to the Kremlin?), I guess that's that.

It'll always be there though, now. Something else at the back of his mind to work away at his paranoia. Whilst it's true that a number of countries might not fancy feeling his collar, will he ever want to bet his life that they won't? Whilst he's right to feel pretty secure in his belief that no one behind him wants to hand him to the enemy today, what will the political landscape in Moscow look like in two years? Five years? Ten? He'll have to stick an extra four hundred yards on that long table of his.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by delbert »

Picking up on the fortnight holiday bit and going off at a bit of a tangent, this has to be a good time to go away whilst no Russians are on holiday. I wonder what reception they'll get when they do eventually start showing up again?
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by SirStoneyOfBow »

delbert wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 11:10 am Picking up on the fortnight holiday bit and going off at a bit of a tangent, this has to be a good time to go away whilst no Russians are on holiday. I wonder what reception they'll get when they do eventually start showing up again?
I was just speaking to someone who just came back from Thailand and said there were a decent contingent of Russians at the resort he was staying at who were as arrogant and deluded as you could imagine.
This was less than a month ago.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by EvilC »

A lot are in Dubai. Which is another reason not to go there.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by delbert »

SirStoneyOfBow wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 12:00 pm I was just speaking to someone who just came back from Thailand and said there were a decent contingent of Russians at the resort he was staying at who were as arrogant and deluded as you could imagine.
This was less than a month ago.
That's a shame, I didn't think they was being allowed to travel.
I was hoping for a least a couple of breaks without having to put up with some ugly midget and his ridiculous trophy wife. The ugly midget being rude to the hotel staff whilst the wife is clattering around in stupidly high heels with her overdone make up melting to make it look like Picasso has curled one out on her pouting face.........
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by Johnny Byrne's Boots »

jastons wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 10:14 pm What does this mean in real terms? If Putin steps foot inside a country where the ICC has jurisdiction, can he be arrested on the spot?
Further to elsie's excellent answer, not only can he be arrested, according to BBC News this morning any country that's signatory to the ICC agreement is obliged to arrest him. Note too that despite all of Biden's blustering, the USA doesn't recognise the ICC either.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by RayleighIrons »

SirStoneyOfBow wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 12:00 pm I was just speaking to someone who just came back from Thailand and said there were a decent contingent of Russians at the resort he was staying at who were as arrogant and deluded as you could imagine.
This was less than a month ago.

I was in Phuket a couple of weeks ago on holiday, yeah its true that loads of the scum are there. Seems to be the youngster who wanted to escape being called up to the war.
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Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine

Post by smuts »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65004610

Hopefully a building he bombed will fall on his head. ****.
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