Cost of living crisis

[Tenbury]

Alas, people do. They may not frequent this parish, but I know plenty who get the hump with it. I hear almost daily those who are doing relatively well for themselves moaning that someone is doing better than them.

Just a human reaction to competitive activities (that's good isn't it?)

[westham,eggyandchips]

So double digits reached....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-62566828

[Danny's Dyer Acting]

This is significant. Inflation is almost 25% higher for people on the lowest incomes than the highest.

[Hummer_I_mean_Hammer]

^^^^ how does that work?

Frozen pizza and turkey twizzlers are experiencing the largest increases?

[Danny's Dyer Acting]

^^^^ how does that work?

Frozen pizza and turkey twizzlers are experiencing the largest increases?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflatio ... tojune2022

Lot of detail to it (and still in an experimental phase) but it's stuff like this that drives the differences:

Energy, food and drink tends to reflect a greater proportion of lower-income households' spending; therefore, greater weight is given to price changes for these spending categories in the low-income households group.

[RichieRiv]

More good news. The city is predicting that interest rates will double in the next 6 months.

Looks like the Bank of England are going to keep pissing in the wind until they collapse the housing market and everything that goes with it.

[DaveWHU1964]

… add to that, two thirds of the country are predicted to be in fuel poverty by the new year …

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... arch-finds

Like many on here I’ve lived through recessions but this is shaping up to be the worst of my lifetime. The worst since the Great Depression?

[smuts]

Highest inflation in the G7. Another joyful statistic.

[DaveWHU1964]

Smuts - it genuinely feels like one big ****-storm approaching and we’re only at the start of it.

Maybe this recession is more personal for me than other times. My parents split when I was five. My mum was incredible but we were bought up in poverty. I never expected to end up back in a category with that ****ing word in it. I suspect millions will be having similar feelings as they either go back into poverty (either fuel poverty, or full blown, undeniable poverty) or more likely, experience one or both of these things for the first time in their lives.

[smuts]

Richie has been warning us for the last 6 months that it's going to be grim and it looks like he's totally correct.

It will take innovative, bold leadership to get us through this. Sadly we're going to have Liz Truss with the ERG with their hand up her Jacksie.

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

… add to that, two thirds of the country are predicted to be in fuel poverty by the new year …

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... arch-finds

Like many on here I’ve lived through recessions but this is shaping up to be the worst of my lifetime. The worst since the Great Depression?

The price of energy drives the price of everything so yes it's going to be bad. Talking to clients since January the stories of trying to renew energy deals have been scary.

None of the plans suggested deal with business costs so their prices will keep going up and they will have to pass that on or shut down. Going to end a lot of small/medium firms I'd guess.

I don't get the fuel poverty thing tbh. It just seems like another way of saying prices have gone up. Surely usage plays a part in it as well. The only way to eradicate it would be for people to pay based on income not usage.

[RichieRiv]

Richie has been warning us for the last 6 months that it's going to be grim and it looks like he's totally correct.

It will take innovative, bold leadership to get us through this. Sadly we're going to have Liz Truss with the ERG with their hand up her Jacksie.

Well, and Mr Evil too.

I take no delight in my predictions.

Boom and bust are just how free market economies work and we had done well to get to this point. Ultimately the government succeeded in saving us from economic armageddon during covid, but in reality, they just kicked the can down the road. As I have been saying for over 2 years, the real cost of covid is starting to come to fruition. Many will cite that this isn't just about covid, the war in Ukraine etc, but what Covid has compromised is our ability to fight this recession and worst of all create an expectation that the government will sort out every problem.

[Dimension Diver]

Most developed countries around the world adopted stimulus programs to stave off economic collapse during the pandemic. Some of those economies have come roaring out of the blocks since the pandemic. The UK is relatively unique in how badly the economy is faring.

https://fortune.com/2022/08/09/uk-emerg ... f-england/

[delbert]

So double digits reached....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-62566828

Bum education? Well for some, yes.
Strike at the station? Yes.

I think you can guess where I'm going with this, we just need a Neon King Kong and I'm calling house.....

[bubbles1966]

The UK labour market is in a strong position to counter the inevitable after-shock from the pandemic and energy price shock. There is a stock of 1.3m job opportunities (approx. double the level when the banks collapsed) and there is unlikely to be a huge inward flow of unemployed from Europe competing for the same jobs (unlike the eurozone currency crisis) if there is an economic adjustment here.

I reckon the inflationary shock to the economy is likely to reduce sharply within six to eight months - initial tentative signs can be seen (oil price coming back down, PMI reports of supply chain issues easing, pay inflation for new starters reducing).

[EvilC]

I reckon the inflationary shock to the economy is likely to reduce sharply within six to eight months - initial tentative signs can be seen (oil price coming back down, PMI reports of supply chain issues easing, pay inflation for new starters reducing).

How does the ongoing rising gas price and the time lag for this to feed into inflation fit into the reduced inflationary shock?

[bubbles1966]

How does the ongoing rising gas price and the time lag for this to feed into inflation fit into the reduced inflationary shock?

It's a single contributor in the inflation calculation, albeit with knock ons. In recent times though it's been one of multiple driving up inflation. Other components are starting to ease off so there will be some form of counter balance that hasn't necessarily been there.

[EvilC]

It's a single contributor in the inflation calculation, albeit with knock ons. In recent times though it's been one of multiple driving up inflation. Other components are starting to ease off so there will be some form of counter balance that hasn't necessarily been there.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-inf ... 022-08-17/

I'm not saying they are right, and at some point all this stuff is going to hurt the demand side, but I'm not sure the picture is about to improve just yet, although it may be that the gas price rise is overdone.

[bubbles1966]

Yep, I'm guessing the change will kick in most substantially around the anniversary of the war and the immediate aftershock (March/April) , all things being equal.

[EvilC]

UK consumer confidence at lowest since it started in the 70s.