The Relegation Thread

[WestHamLyallStyle]

I have a feeling that both Forest and Palace will be in the mix come the last couple of matches. I also think that both Wolves and Leicester wont be

Southampton are emulating what we did in 2003 that is to say beat Chelsea home and away but fall through the trapdoor.

[Colours never run]

Forest won't go down. Their home form will get them over the line. Palace too, because they face most of the bottom 8 and will get the points rhet need just about, even under Hodgson.

[hammerman11]

Let's hope we can string a few wins together when we get back to the bowl next weekend . We have to play better if we are to survive. Other teams showing fight passion energy .Time for us to do likewise

[bubbles1966]

538 have Southampton, Bournemouth and Forest dropping. We're about 4/1 against.

Looking at the fixtures, I reckon Forest might have two wins left in them. Some of the others might have three.

[WestHamLyallStyle]

538 have Southampton, Bournemouth and Forest dropping. We're about 4/1 against.

Looking at the fixtures, I reckon Forest might have two wins left in them. Some of the others might have three.

538 ? That's a new one on me...

[El brooko79]

538 have Southampton, Bournemouth and Forest dropping. We're about 4/1 against.

Looking at the fixtures, I reckon Forest might have two wins left in them. Some of the others might have three.

Just looked at their prediction league and results.
They are definitely Foxes supporters, have them on 44 points.
They have us staying up by 2 points and beating both Man Utd and Liverpool.

[Tezza65]

Saints have Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City, Newcastle, Fulham, Bournemouth. All the same as us.

So from that perspective Man City is not really our game in hand compared to them. It works that way with all of our rivals.

All of us in the relegation area have fixtures that look write offs. It doesn't mean it negates our game in hand.

Difference is the clubs down there with us have taken a few big scalps in the last 2 months,while we haven't taken any since 2021,all down to Moyes's,has someone said cowardly tactics.

[dodger]

Forest won't go down. Their home form will get them over the line. Palace too, because they face most of the bottom 8 and will get the points rhet need just about, even under Hodgson.

Forest’s home results have been misleading as they’ve been incredibly lucky in most of the ones they’ve won/drawn.

Forest 1-0 West Ham - we remember this one. We battered them, missed a pen, dodgy disallowed goal decision etc.
Forest 1-1 Villa - Villa much the better side.
Forest 1-0 Liverpool - Liverpool missed tons of chances
Forest 2-2 Brentford - Deserved draw for Forest but relied on a late equalizer to get it
Forest 1-0 Palace - Tight game with a draw probably fairer but not a total injustice
Forest 1-1 Chelsea - Good performance and deserved point for Forest
Forest 2-0 Leicester - Deserved win for Forest
Forest 1-0 Leeds - Leeds much the better side, Forest lucky
Forest 1-1 Man City - unbelievable some of City’s misses in this one. 1-6 would have been a fair score line.
Forest 2-2 Everton - almost a loss to one of the worst away sides in the league

Barring a few exceptions, they are consistently outplayed both at home and away. For me they are the worst team in the league and if they do stay up, luck will have played an enormous part in that.

Also, their remaining home games are Wolves, Man Utd, Brighton, Southampton and Arsenal, and I only see two ‘easier fixtures’ there. Even if they win both, that’s 32 points. Where are the other points coming from?

[Colours never run]

When you consider that many games, it can't be just luck they find themselves in the position they're in. Eventually over the course of the season you get found out and they're still doing alright for a newly promoted side. Their points will mainly come from their home form. They've done it all season long.

[dodger]

When you consider that many games, it can't be just luck they find themselves in the position they're in. Eventually over the course of the season you get found out and they're still doing alright for a newly promoted side. Their points will mainly come from their home form. They've done it all season long.

They have 26 points from 27 games and recently they have indeed started to get found out. I don’t think their points have been 100% luck, but all things being equal they should be bottom of the table.

We shall see but I can see them finishing bottom, though more likely 18th or 19th.

FiveThirtyEight have them as statistically the worst side in the league and having a 56% chance of relegation, higher than everyone except Southampton.

[Colours never run]

Strongly believe they'll survive as I did at the start. I could well be wrong though. I've liked how they've gone about trying to stay up, as well as take on the League Cup as a newly promoted Club. I don't see a lot of it down to luck but the manager.

[Humbug]

I first thought most of our squad would have a bit of a rest but now seen an article stating a big chunk of our squad (including U21's - U17's) are on international duty . The likelihood is some of them are going to be injured before our game against Soton.

Obviously the bold highlighted ones I hope will stay fit.

England - Declan Rice
France - Alphonse Areola
Brazil - Lucas Paqueta
Germany - Thilo Kehrer
Morocco - Nayef Aguerd
Italy - Gianluca Scamacca and Emerson
Czech Republic - Tomas Soucek and Vladimir Coufal
Croatia - Nikola Vlasic (currently on loan at Torino)
Democratic Republic of Congo - Arthur Masuaku (currently on loan at Besiktas)
Hungary - Krisztian Hegyi
England Under-21s - Ben Johnson
Republic of Ireland Under-21s - Armstrong Okoflex
England Under-19s - Divin Mubama
England Under-18s - Ollie Scarles
England Under-17s - Finlay Herrick
Northern Ireland Under-19s - Callum Marshall
Northern Ireland Under-17s - Josh Briggs

[pezza20]

Unfortunately, most of our rivals have shown they are able to beat these top teams in the near past

Southampton - chelsea
Everton - arsenal
Wolves - liverpool
bournemouth - liverpool
Leeds - liverpool
Leicester - spurs
nottingham forest - liverpool

we haven't beaten one of the 'big 6' for about 15 months. in fact i can only think of Fulham as a team in the top half when we played them that we have beaten in that time

Little unfair that given that equates to less than half a season ....

Moyes has beaten Chelsea with us, Liverpool and Spurs from memory, its the away days he has failed miserably at winning .... I think he was also in charge when we beat Spurs with the Antonio toilet dance wasn't he?

[pezza20]

I have no doubt Hodgson will do enough to keep Palace up but what a pathetic and backwards appointment.

But ...

At least they had the balls to do it, unlike our cowardly clown at the wheel ..

and getting Woy back was obvious - knows the club and a lot of the players, got them out of the ***** last time, plays dour boring defensive football that picks up points, and was cheap and available, so was the perfect choice for Parrish and co. I bet they now start climbing the table too ,,,

[WCpete]

I don't think Palace were going down under Vieira, tbh. Fixtures and key injuries have plagued them in '23. They would have been good enough without having to fire their manager. That said, we should have fired our manager 5 months ago now.

[Wilko1304]

That's my set of predictions before this round of fixtures. It does include going back and catching the games in hand teams have (it seems bananas that some teams haven't played their fixtures from week seven of the season).

That is with a last day victory for us at Leicester, but Forest winning (at an already safe Crystal Palace) and Everton drawing at Bournemouth. Leeds and Wolves both already safe and lose their last game.

This is with us beating Southampton, Leeds and Leicester, and draws with Fulham and Bournemouth. Turning defeat to a draw from any of our other games could be really big, especially as I had us losing at Palace and then losing to a Brentford side that I had, by that stage, playing for nothing.

What can't really be accounted for now is momentum. Could Leeds go on a run after that win against Wolves? If Southampton beat us, I think they'd be flying and could put on a run.

[dodger]

This is with us beating Southampton, Leeds and Leicester, and draws with Fulham and Bournemouth. Turning defeat to a draw from any of our other games could be really big, especially as I had us losing at Palace and then losing to a Brentford side that I had, by that stage, playing for nothing.

That’d be 3 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses from our final 12 matches. We’d fully deserve to go down in that case.

[funky chicken]

It’s hard looking too far ahead with some of the up and coming fixtures, as I think a lot depends on whether how long we’ll be in the Europa Conference for.

Remember, we’re at the stage of the competition now when we’ll likely have to play a stronger starting 11. I.e. the majority of the players who will also be starting in the league fixtures, so this could have an effect by the time we play on the weekend. Plus, how focused will the players be having one eye on potential silverware? We all saw what an effect it had on our league form last season the closer we got to the final.

IF we play to our potential, I think we can definitely beat Southampton and Leeds. And we are capable of picking up something at Bournemouth and Palace and at home to Newcastle.

We’ve always been a bit of a bogey team at Selhurst Park. And we especially have been to Fulham in the past, so don’t write that one off. With their form on the road, I wouldn’t rule us out getting something against Liverpool.

Leicester is all about the situation both clubs will be in at that point. They could be on the beach by the time we play them and already safe. We have had their number in recent years and even though they beat us at home, they didn’t really have to break sweat. Equally, if we are safe at that point and we are hopefully in the Europa Conference final, we may rest some players for that game, like we did prior to some games last season.

The only guaranteed defeats for me are the home fixture to the Gooners, as they are one of our bogey teams and our away fixture to Man City as David Moyes is our manager. Not that there is any shame losing at Man City anyway.

The Man Utd fixture is the most interesting one, as if they have all but guaranteed their place in the top 4 by the time we play them, they may be more focused on the FA Cup and Europa League and take their eyes off the league.

[Aztec Hammer]

We can win our next three and be close to safe before we even play Gent.

That's what we should be aiming for. Two home games are winnable, it doesn't matter who they are against, but in this case it's Southampton and Newcastle. Absolutely winnable if we go for it. Fulham away without Mitro, we can win that.

Get past Gent and then beat Bournemouth away a few days later and we are fine. We can then really focus on the Conference.

[BondsoBob]

I see it in relatively simple terms now. Beat Southampton and I think will we stay up.
Draw or lose to them and I think we are really in the proverbial. It won't just be the points lost but the confidence for the rest of the season will take a huge, probably fatal, knock.