The Relegation Thread

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Ironing Board
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by Ironing Board »

il_martello_di_genovesi wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 7:07 pm So when we finished 6th and 7th under Moyes, we had good players and they deserve all the credit? As Moyes could only do so much, so the good players got us good results?
You want a hat to go with your straw man?
Paolopaul
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by Paolopaul »

Ironing Board wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 6:57 pm They will if they maintain current form.
Which they won’t, as their fixtures switch from all top half teams to all bottom half teams. Palace have got a decent squad and all 8 of their relegation rivals to play.
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by prophet:marginal »

Ironing Board wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 6:53 pm
The lack of respect for Hodgson is pretty shocking considering his achievements.
Only as good as your last job, imo.

And they're still defumigating Vicarage Road.
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by Rozzop »

bonzosbeard wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 4:10 pm Would people be happy with 12th? We could get that and miss being relegated by 3 points
Whats the difference between 11th and 17th in all fairness?
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hammer1975
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by hammer1975 »

Rozzop wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:39 pm Whats the difference between 11th and 17th in all fairness?
About £15m in prize money?
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by Rozzop »

hammer1975 wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:41 pm About £15m in prize money?
So the cost of a packet of crisps in modern day football
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by hammer1975 »

Rozzop wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:46 pm So the cost of a packet of crisps in modern day football
Lol, Sullivan has been known to negotiate for months to save 5% of that amount in transfers…..but that’s probably more down to his ego than genuine financial impact…
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by Zman39 »

There’s 6 times more heavily favored to be relegated before us. Strong odds for Southampton and Bournemouth, and Everton as 3rd most likely. Obviously doesn’t guarantee it but the bookies are normally rihht
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by Colours never run »

Ironing Board wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 7:08 pm I’ve always said Pellegrini is a good coach. He was in a role here he was not suited too. Didn’t help himself by completely losing interest at the end.
Nonsense on both counts.
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by jabbaglob123 »

Managerless Palace's heavy defeat today I think is a big turning point.

Can see them going into free fall.
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hammer1975
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by hammer1975 »

Zman39 wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 10:09 pm There’s 6 times more heavily favored to be relegated before us. Strong odds for Southampton and Bournemouth, and Everton as 3rd most likely. Obviously doesn’t guarantee it but the bookies are normally rihht
The most interesting betting ‘view’ to me is always the total points spread betting. Interesting that we’ve been slowly sliding down closer to the bottom three in those forecasts…to the point that there is now a spread of three points from 3rd from bottom to the 7th from bottom club. The implication is that one loss when the bookies expect a win may be enough to relegate us.

FWIW - I think the bookies are overestimating our likely end total by forecasting 38-39 points.
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by DusseldorfHammer »

Believer wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 5:13 pm Spot on. I bet we’ve not even given a second thought to who we will bring in or what system we will play when Rice leaves.

Brighton have probably got a replacement lined up for McAllister and their boss already.
Us switching to a possession based system despite key cogs of our successful team of the last two season not being fit for purpose for such a style of play. Fabianski, Coufal, Soucek, Mickey, Zouma. Five starters. Ludicrous!
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by dodger »

Updated record of other bottom 9 sides since we played Villa:

Won: 1
Drawn: 3
Lost: 7*

Relevant fixtures before we play Southampton:
Arsenal vs Leeds
Bournemouth vs Fulham
Crystal Palace vs Leicester
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves

*Updated, forgot the Newcastle win over Wolves.
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by sutts07 »

Been a while since I have had to dig out this great old prediction website...
https://www.worldfootball.net/table_cal ... er-league/

Wolves v Everton and West Ham v Leeds on the penultimate week is shaping up like it is going to be huge.

And then you have Palace v Forest and Everton v Bournemouth on the final day too which could be really key as I have it as all four of them needing a win in that final game and obviously they can't all win if they are playing each other.

Key games for us are Southampton home, Bournemouth away, Palace away and Leeds at home. Three or four wins from those and we will be ok in my mind. Two wins is going to make things very edgy. If we don't win any of those, I can't see us staying up.

We need Southampton to be cut adrift (ideally Bournemouth too) then it will be a case of keeping our heads above Forest, Everton and Palace. Which I think we can do.

I have us 12th on 38 / 39 points with a massive gap above to Villa on 50.
I also have Leicester and Palace around the 38 point mark.
Then Leeds, Wolves and Everton at the 35 / 36 area.
Southampton, Forest and Bournemouth all relegated with 28 / 31 points.
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by Crouchend_Hammer »

DusseldorfHammer wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 10:59 pm Us switching to a possession based system despite key cogs of our successful team of the last two season not being fit for purpose for such a style of play. Fabianski, Coufal, Soucek, Mickey, Zouma. Five starters. Ludicrous!
tbf you don't need every player to be amazing on the ball to be suited to a possession based system. Most players of Premier League standard are good enough on the ball to allow it if motivated, encouraged and coached properly

Brighton have Dunk playing CB, they also have Welbeck up front quite a bit. Newcastle have Nick Pope in goal and Dan Burn playing LB.

We have plenty of players who could make it happen
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by hammerman11 »

wouldnt mind dunk at CB or a wellbeck upfront.

Hopefully fulham lose a bit of form after yesterdays meltdown. palace hopefully continue their winless streak. we just need to win a few games to get clear, releive the pressure a bit and pick up points.

next 7 games in the PL for april

southampton h - must win game !
newcastle h draw
fulham a win
arsenal h lose we never beat this lot , maybe we can get a draw but unlikely
bournemouth a draw
liverpool h draw
Palace h must win game

12 points from 7 games puts us on 36 points with 5 to go so we should be ok
palace and saints are must win games. bournemouth away is a must not lose game.

we do need to pick up points from newcastle fulham and liverpool matches. arsenal will be fresh as no euro matches and this game is in between our gent fixtures. I would prioritise gent matches this time.
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by goa127 »

Everybody has their own relegation system. Mine is Don't lose to any of the bottom 7. Then win one of Liverpool or ManU plus another unexpected win or two. Not getting beat by relegation rivals is important. You'd like to win those games but you certainly can't afford to lose them. This may sound a negative approach every point is vital. Of course 5 wins in a row would sort it by mid April but it's more likely that Lord Lucan will get the Palace job
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by goa127 »

Palace is away, we lost 3-2 at home to a last minute deflection
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by Crouchend_Hammer »

hammerman11 wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:51 am wouldnt mind dunk at CB or a wellbeck upfront.

Nor would i
but that wasn't my point
you don't need a team of 11 'ballers' to play 'possession' football
you do need the right mindset, coaching, encouragement and appetite for risk to do it though
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Re: The Relegation Thread

Post by Bubbles Fortuna »

sutts07 wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:25 am Been a while since I have had to dig out this great old prediction website...
I went super pessimistic, failure to beat Fulham, Bournemouth, Leicester or Palace. We went down by one point in 18th, Southampton and Bournemouth adrift at the bottom, Forest survived in 17th on 35 points, us on 34.
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