The Sunak Government 2022-

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bubbles1966
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by bubbles1966 »

YorksHammer wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:44 am Thing is Tenbury, it becomes about perception. Labour will be hammering the 12 years thing, completely rightly and accurately, and some will see that. Sunak showing himself to be leading a party that a) is no longer in chaos (and they have a bit of time to work this out), and b) improving the economic state of the country (which, as pointed out, will come naturally because there simply can't be year on year 10% inflation) will be the Tory angle, I'm sure.

The 12 years thing holds a lot of weight for a lot of voters. It's the same thing that got Cameron/Clegg in in 2010, realistically, 13 years of Labour in power made the campaign straightforward for them especially given the global crash.
Two years, almost to the day, before the 2010 election (after 11 years of Labour government) - opinion poll - Tories 49, Labour 23.

Two years on, Final Outcome - 37, 29 -minority government.

The last 30 years of elections are littered with this type of thing, where one supposedly inept and chaotic party is pronounced dead and buried yet either comes back to win, or takes significant chunks out of their opponents lead - Major reduced Blairs from 40 to 13, Corbyn cut a 20 point lead to 2, the Tories were on 16% just five months before winning an 80 seat majority.

The lessons of electoral history tell us that hypothetical 'if there was an election tomorrow' questions have questionable value, certainly in terms of margins, because the respondents know there isn't one and aren't at 'make your mind up time'. And then there are 'events'.

The telling questions at this point are usually about Best PM and the Issues Indices. They tell us what's on people's minds, what they really think matters and what they think of the figureheads.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

DaveWHU1964 wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:33 am You mentioned polls showing 10 to 12% swings to Labour yesterday Sam. Over the last few polls YouGov and Redfield and Wilton are showing 18% and 17% respectively of Tory 2019 voters now saying they'll vote Labour. The likes of Opinium will come up with different figures but there figures are not pure opinion polls, but a prediction of the result of the next election based on opinion polls.
That will be weighted on likelihood of voting, so it won't show the don't knows and those not sure if they will vote. Thats the problem the tories have to solve, getting people out to vote - its one that usually comes right but its not guaranteed. The other problem they will face is the ~40% swing from lib dem to labour. I think thats where a lot of the electoral calculus wipeout type predictions come from, Tories coming 2nd in lots and lots of seats.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by YorksHammer »

bubbles1966 wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:33 am Two years, almost to the day, before the 2010 election (after 11 years of Labour government) - opinion poll - Tories 49, Labour 23.

Two years on, Final Outcome - 37, 29 -minority government.
You could even go further back than that, though - within months of the '05 election the Tories were leading Labour, essentially as soon as Cameron took over as party leader.

08 polls would have been taken as the Financial Crisis hit. By 2010 growth was increasing and ended back up at pre-crash levels of over 2%. That probably served to some of the 'recovery' by Labour in the polls.

Of course, then we followed that with three back to back years of sub-2% growth in the heart of austerity. Thanks, Cameron and Clegg.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by bubbles1966 »

Brown's 'growth' was a charade.

He was puffing up the public sector using debt to disguise how empty everything else was - manufacturing, mining, agriculture, construction - and hoping that banks/services would pay for it all. We've spent years paying the price for the off-shoring of productive capacity that took place then and using cheap imported labour instead of investing, automating, innovating and modernising.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by YorksHammer »

We've also spent years paying for the lack of growth caused by austerity - debt up hugely, wages suppressed, growth of in work poverty, food bank usage through the roof, insecure jobs rising. That's not just here, that's globally.

Austerity didn't work in the UK. The initial growth in 10-11 came from tax revenues recovering, by 12-13 the austerity policies had us heading for another recession and it was at that point Osborne loosened the purse strings and eased off the original austerity brief, while the BoE threw everything they had at steering the economy away from another crash. Slowing the austerity was still austerity and it held growth back.

Every country that took the austerity route then saw reduced growth in GDP. Germany and Japan - two countries that didn't cut their Government budgets - actually continued to grow after 2008.

We haven't had any increase in investment in those areas you mentioned under those in charge for the past 12 years either. They've been too busy first cutting services that benefited the less fortunate than their mates, then working out how we can leave the EU.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by bubbles1966 »

YorksHammer wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:44 pm Every country that took the austerity route then saw reduced growth in GDP. Germany and Japan - two countries that didn't cut their Government budgets - actually continued to grow after 2008.
The UK public sector budget 2010: £673bn
The UK public sector budget 2015: £759bn

The Germans did much the same thing as us in terms of recession, fiscal restraint and then essentially imposed their fiscal principles on the EU, most especially the PIIGS.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by Junco Partner »

PA Media Reports "Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary, has sent a letter to Tory MPs confirming that the government will water down housebuilding targets..."

And so it begins, forced into a back down by Theresea DeVilliers and a few other NIMBY headbangers. The pattern of the next two years is being set.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by DaveWHU1964 »

Junco Partner wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 7:45 pm The pattern of the next two years is being set.
It's long been set Juncs. The multiple u-turns started ages ago. They long ago descended into being nothing more than a divided, unreliable, ungovernable rabble so despite their big majority, they continue to give the appearance of being a minority government. Sunak is weak, but anyone would struggle as leader of this dysfunctional mob.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by MB »

Feels like a coalition government in all but name. Have never seen a government with such a large majority have their hands tied like this. Will make their election manifesto fun…
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by Up the Junction »

smuts wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 7:01 pm https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... helle-mone

200m contract put through in a few weeks.
She's off to the Winchester...


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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by DaveWHU1964 »

To escape, she could always ask to use a private jet like this shameless, on-the-make family. PPE suppliers, most of it never used - his pay went up from about £37k before the pandemic to nearly £5 million. The company profits went up by over 20,000%. Results eh? Anyway, they knew they were taking the piss - his birthday cake was in the shape of a suitcase full of cash ...

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/ ... ke-339988/

You can see why some people still support this government.
Last edited by DaveWHU1964 on Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by OFT »

I thought they'd won, I thought I was so ground down by this dreadful mob of a government that I no longer care what they do, then my sons and grandchildren called in for a bit of tea and I remembered that I have to care.

Whatever the concerns about Labour or a 'coalition' with 'whoever' let's have a government who at the very least try to give the impression that they're concerned about the country.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by old fart »

DaveWHU1964 wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:03 pm To escape, she could always ask to use a private jet like this shameless, on-the-make family. PPE suppliers, most of it never used - his pay went up from about £37k before the pandemic to nearly £5 million. The company profits went up by over 20,000%. Results eh? Anyway, they knew they were taking the piss - his birthday cake was in the shape of a suitcase full of cash ...

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/ ... ke-339988/

You can see why some people still support this government.
Mone’s leave of absence means she will not attend sittings or debates, vote on proceedings or be able to claim any allowance.

She will also no longer be bound by parliamentary rules to declare her interests, including any directorships, shareholdings and non-financial interests.

However, a leave of absence request can be blocked by the Lords’ standards commissioners. The watchdog is already investigating Mone over multiple “potential breaches” of the Lords’ code of conduct.

The code states that if a peer takes a formal break “in order to avoid an impending investigation (or while an investigation is under way), the request may be refused”. If a peer is already on leave of absence when placed under investigation, then that can also be ended immediately.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by smuts »

DaveWHU1964 wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:03 pm To escape, she could always ask to use a private jet like this shameless, on-the-make family. PPE suppliers, most of it never used - his pay went up from about £37k before the pandemic to nearly £5 million. The company profits went up by over 20,000%. Results eh? Anyway, they knew they were taking the piss - his birthday cake was in the shape of a suitcase full of cash ...

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/ ... ke-339988/

You can see why some people still support this government.
My missus worked through lockdowns and put every penny she had left remaining from Covid grants back into her business on new equipment etc to make things better and easier for her staff when they returned.

In the meantime parasites like that ripped the arse out of it.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by hammers92 »

I question just how much Hancock would swear to under oath but now the Covid inquiry has begun, the blame game has started.

Personally I think Michelle Mone is irrelevant in the grand scheme of corruption that went on, but the race is now on to rewrite history and not get the blame.

Hancock will have the care home debacle laid at his door, I think these accusations and things like I’m a Celebrity are designed to try and protect him.

There’s going to be a lot more coming out in the wash over the next year.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

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hammers92 wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 4:56 pm I question just how much Hancock would swear to under oath but now the Covid inquiry has begun, the blame game has started.

Personally I think Michelle Mone is irrelevant in the grand scheme of corruption that went on, but the race is now on to rewrite history and not get the blame.

Hancock will have the care home debacle laid at his door, I think these accusations and things like I’m a Celebrity are designed to try and protect him.

There’s going to be a lot more coming out in the wash over the next year.
March 2020: It's terrible, they should have ordered a big stockpile of PPE just sitting there waiting to be used
Dec 2022: It's terrible, they shouldn't have ordered a big stockpile of PPE just sitting there waiting to be used

The care home 'debacle' will come back to the state of Public Health England/SAGE and the demands of the NHS.

The cautious approach people think they should have applied in March 2020, is the one of the things that's been causing bed blocking for ages.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by Tenbury »

DaveWHU1964 wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:03 pm To escape, she could always ask to use a private jet like this shameless, on-the-make family. PPE suppliers, most of it never used - his pay went up from about £37k before the pandemic to nearly £5 million. The company profits went up by over 20,000%. Results eh? Anyway, they knew they were taking the piss - his birthday cake was in the shape of a suitcase full of cash ...

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/ ... ke-339988/

You can see why some people still support this government.
....... and for those who thought 'kleptocracy' was just hyperbole...
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by hammers92 »

bubbles1966 wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 5:08 pm March 2020: It's terrible, they should have ordered a big stockpile of PPE just sitting there waiting to be used
Dec 2022: It's terrible, they shouldn't have ordered a big stockpile of PPE just sitting there waiting to be used

The care home 'debacle' will come back to the state of Public Health England/SAGE and the demands of the NHS.

The cautious approach people think they should have applied in March 2020, is the one of the things that's been causing bed blocking for ages.
£38 billion on a failed track and trace system and £11 billion written off by Sunak from Covid fraud and not going after the money. There was quite clearly corruption going on in parts of Government, contracts were given to mates to give them a big pay day with minimal delivery on what was paid for.

On my point about the care homes, someone is getting the blame for allowing them to leave hospital without being tested. Hancock has repeatedly said they put “a protective ring round care homes” which is now proven to be a lie. Who gave the order, and who told the politician making the decision that was what they should do?

I’m not going to criticise the Government on buying PPE to increase supply very quickly. But I do find it terribly convenient friends of ministers got rich overnight and the health sector (let’s talk in general terms), didn’t see a tangible benefit to what was supposedly being paid for.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

hammers92 wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 5:23 pm On my point about the care homes, someone is getting the blame for allowing them to leave hospital without being tested. Hancock has repeatedly said they put “a protective ring round care homes” which is now proven to be a lie. Who gave the order, and who told the politician making the decision that was what they should do?
As stupid as it was nobody gave the order really. It was NHS policy and had been for years. It's the time it took to realise the changes that's the problem. It's as if nobody noticed everything that had happened in Italy.

In the 11bn fraud again as wrong as it is we are probably talking about hundreds of thousands of small frauds. The legal cost and time pursuing those would probably eat up a lot of anything they recoup.

They should absolutely try and get reimbursed for contracts that weren't honoured correctly, they have been after medpro for 12 months now.
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