The Sunak Government 2022-

[Tenbury]

In many ways, IMO, the spontaneous combusting of the Truss junta was his biggest nightmare. If she'd survived to (inevitably, IMO) lose the next GE, he could have taken over all bright and shiny, rather than be tainted with the current tory branding.
If ( when?) he loses next time round, odds on there'll be a by-election in Harrogate within months.

[bubbles1966]

I'm sure you're right. We'll all come to our senses soon, and realise what a damn good job they've been doing.

If the breakdown in 2019 was

44/100 Tories
32/100 Labour
24/100 various others

then, If half of the Tories (22 out of 44) say, "nope, not bothering this time" (as they have been telling the pollsters) it becomes

22/78 Tories (28%)
32/78 Labour (41%)
24/78 Others (31%)

There we (near enough) have the lead and the Chester result (Tories down 16. Labour up 11) which implied 27-43 nationally - It's not precise, but it's a decent approximation.

If we look at the Chester result - everyone but the Tories got about 65% of the GE voters to turn out. Tories got 30% (6k out of 20k) to show up.

Sunak's job is to get those who are sitting on their hands to get off them in two years time.

He won't be judged on climate change and social housing and such like - he'll be judged on taxes, economic discipline, immigration, law and order, defence and whether public services are efficient and good value for money.

If he fails, those voters won't trickle over to Labour. The biggest criticism Tory voters are levelling at them is that they are too much like Labour - I saw someone refer to them as the Commieservatives the other day.

[DaveWHU1964]

I saw someone refer to them as the Commieservatives the other day.

Who said that? Liz Truss? Kwarteng? Someone from the ERG or Reform UK? Or maybe one of the small percentage of actual voters who would be idiot enough to a) think that this incarnation of the Conservative Party is somehow 'commie' and b) juvenile enough to use a word that is the political version of Wet Spam.

Anyone pushing this idiotic and puerile line 'Commieservative' line must hope that the rest of us have appalling memories and have forgotten that they've just had what they wanted - a small sate, small taxes government, and it was a ****ing disaster. It lasted a whole six weeks because its politics and ideology were off the scale mental even for markets not generally known as being remotely Commie. But if they want another go, they'll probably need to hurry and grab the reins of the Tory Party again as anyone standing on a Truss/ Kwarteng platform or similar would be anihilated.

Secondly, your polling 'analysis' above is over-simplistic, partial and therefore mis-leading. You said "If he fails, those voters won't trickle over to Labour". That's not true. Many already have. You only talk about Tory voters sitting on their hands but what we've seen steadily this year, reaching a peak around Truss's time is a good percentage of Tory 2019 voters moving directly to saying they will not sit on their hands but will vote Labour. Any chance you can you factor that into your figures and come back with more accurate ones as to what polls are actually saying now rather than what you want people to believe they are saying.

[bubbles1966]

Secondly, your polling 'analysis' above is, over-simplistic, partial and therefore mis-leading.

It's just saying something you don't want to hear.

[DaveWHU1964]

No, it's mis-leading as I've explained.

That's unless you can you explain why in your calculations, you've not taken into account the good percentage of Tory 2019 voters who are now saying they would vote Labour. I'm sure you will know that they exist. So why did you choose to not take that big factor into account unless it's so that you can produce figures that make the Conservative's position look better than it is?

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

About 10-12% is the most I've seen recently that would switch con to lab. The 2019 Tory voters are largely in the don't know if they aren't committing to the Tories again.

There is a bigger drift to reform UK than labour at this point in the polls I've seen.

[sendô]

They were told to vote remain in the UK to stay in the EU and then despite wanting to stay in it were, against their wishes kicked out of it because of England's decision.

It was not England’s decision. Plenty of Scots voted to leave. Even more English voted to remain. The idea that England alone took Britain out of the EU is anti English nationalist claptrap.

FWIW Id vote to kick them put if we were given a vote. Im sick of seeing them all bleat on about it. London voted to remain, is London trying to leave the UK? No, because EU membership is just an excuse.

Anyway, Im merely pointing out that Labour dont owe the SNP anything and should not let themselves be seen to owe them anything.

[sendô]

Labour are totally dependent on Tory voters being disgruntled in two years' time.

That’s literally how elections work bubbs. Thats how the Tories won in 2019. They needed disgruntled Labour voters to vote Tory.

[bubbles1966]

No, it's mis-leading as I've explained.

That's unless you can you explain why in your calculations, you've not taken into account the good percentage of Tory 2019 voters who are now saying they would vote Labour. I'm sure you will know that they exist. So why did you choose to not take that big factor into account unless it's so that you can produce figures that make the Conservative's position look better than it is?

It's recognising that there is something in play here involving a bloc of six to seven million voters that involves an order of magnitude way, way beyond any switching.

It isn't to try to show anything in a favourable light, it's about understanding the situation.

It doesn't mean they will all go back and vote Tory, but it is perfectly possible for a political party to pile up loads of 'its' votes that looked lost in a short period of time. Labour/Corbyn faced the same thing in 2017.

[MB]

It is a good point Bubbs. The whole idea they switched solely due to Brexit is a naive one that gets banded around still.

The difference this time is Starmer isn't a marmite character like Corbyn though and assuming most are more moderate in their general politics then you'd assume they are Labour's to lose as Sunak cannot go down that route without collapsing his government.

I doubt Sunak can pull off the all things to all people act the way Johnson could.

[Junco Partner]

They're both in the sober suited professional competence space, or at least aiming for it.

Sunak's issue is he was first lieutenant in the chaotic, corrupt shambles of the last few years, and was an enthusiastic cheerleader for all the needless austerity that's put so much of our society on the precipice. He's damaged goods, shop soiled from the parties and the misrule of Johnson to ever be laundered enough for those floaters Bubbles mentions.

He's also shockingly bad at PMQ's, has demonstrated wind-sock tendencies with numerous U-turns already, and a peek over his shoulder reveals a rabble of frothy mouthed nut-jobs with knives held behind their backs. It's enough to make you almost feel sorry for the poor little billionaire.

[DaveWHU1964]

About 10-12% is the most I've seen recently that would switch con to lab. The 2019 Tory voters are largely in the don't know if they aren't committing to the Tories again.

I've seen higher Sam but never mind, that's not the point. Using the lowest of your figures: 10% of the Tory 2019 vote of 44.7% is about 4.5% of 2019 voters now saying they'll vote Labour. About 4.5% off the Tories and 4.5% or so on the Labour figures makes a difference of just under 9% - that's a lot and that was the point I was trying to make earlier in that this needs to be taken account of in the figures previously posted if we want to see where we appear to be now.

There is a bigger drift to reform UK than labour at this point in the polls I've seen.

... if that's the case then the Tories are losing even more of their vote to Reform UK than they are to Labour and so are losing votes to both ends of the spectrum. So if they choose to tack further right, they'll presumably lose more voters to labour, the Liberals, etc. If they choose to tack what some will see as further left, then presumably they'll lose more voters to Reform UK, UKIP, etc. Maybe get one block of those voters back but both? Two years to go but at this point they look like they are are in a bind.

[DaveWHU1964]

It was not England’s decision. Plenty of Scots voted to leave. Even more English voted to remain. The idea that England alone took Britain out of the EU is anti English nationalist claptrap.

Yes, plenty of voters in Scotland voted out and plenty of voters in England voted remain. Even so, whilst It was not England's decision alone, the vote in England was decisive. It made the difference. That's not "anti-English nationalist clap-trap". It's just maths Sends.

Voters in Scotland and Northern Ireland both voted remain by a net total of about three quarters of a million. Voters in Wales voted out by a net total of about 82,000. Voters in England voted out by just over 1,900,000. The way voters in just one country voted was decisive. That is what I was getting at - had Scotland and Northern Ireland had their way they'd still be in. It was the vote in England and the size of England that dragged others out of the EU against the wishes of their majorities.

Given that, and given Voters in Scotland were told staying in the UK meant they'd stay in the EU but leaving the UK would jeopardise their place in the UK, I personally think that's a big enough thing to justify them not having to wait the remainder of what constitutes this generation for another vote. That's the point I was trying to make in that part of that post.

Anyway, Im merely pointing out that Labour dont owe the SNP anything and should not let themselves be seen to owe them anything.

Agreed.

[bubbles1966]

Sunak's issue is he was first lieutenant in the chaotic, corrupt shambles of the last few years, and was an enthusiastic cheerleader for all the needless austerity that's put so much of our society on the precipice. He's damaged goods, shop soiled from the parties and the misrule of Johnson to ever be laundered enough for those floaters Bubbles mentions.

Opinions about Sunak will rise or fall in line with how the next two years play out for the Tories. He holds the job of PM so is likely to be assumed a success or a failure based on what happens generally. Starmer can't prove it either way.

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

It's a lot but not enough to get starmer much of a majority.

They are losing more to reform but I'd guess those lost votes might more easily come back at an actual election. They most probably arent voting labour anyway.

[bubbles1966]

It's a lot but not enough to get starmer much of a majority.

They are losing more to reform but I'd guess those lost votes might more easily come back at an actual election. They most probably arent voting labour anyway.

Absolutely.

The Tory > UKIP/BXP/Reform > back to the Tories hokey-cokey has been going on for a decade.

Remember Cameron was polling down towards the mid 20s about ten years ago when UKIP were pushing on, May polled 16% on one occasion, I think, when it was the BXP.

[Tenbury]

Opinions about Sunak will rise or fall in line with how the next two years play out for the Tories.

You wish.
It won't be about Sunak, however much the party might want that, it'll be about 12 years of the Tories. However much you or they might believe it's their true destiny to run the country, they look tired, washed out and disorganised......... and that's putting it nicely, I'd suggest it resembles more a third world kleptocracy.
Even the best regimes run out of steam(too many people forget what it's like to be challenged.)
It won't matter so much whether Tory votes switch to Labour or they just stay at home.... the game's up.

[DaveWHU1964]

It's a lot but not enough to get starmer much of a majority.

You mentioned polls showing 10 to 12% swings to Labour yesterday Sam. Over the last few polls YouGov and Redfield and Wilton are showing 18% and 17% respectively of Tory 2019 voters now saying they'll vote Labour. The likes of Opinium will come up with different figures but there figures are not pure opinion polls, but a prediction of the result of the next election based on opinion polls.

In any case, the one thing we are talking about here does "not need to be enough to get Starmer a majority" on it's own. It's a big aspect, but just one of many that build the picture is across the UK at this moment. And that 17/18% isn't uniform. A poll for Wales yesterday had the swing at 14.5% but even that meant the Tories would have only two of their 14 MPs left (less than Plaid Cymru) and Labour would jump from 22 to 24. Which is one more example of why Electoral Calculus, the polling companies, etc are currently predicting a big Labour majority.

They are losing more to reform but I'd guess those lost votes might more easily come back at an actual election.

Of course that's right Sam. But how easily and how many? ReformUK hate the Tories - they have taken to referring to the Tories as the Con-Socialist Party. They want to replace them. If people are on-board with that kind of mentality, enough to now be saying they'd vote RUK then how many of them are likely to go back to what they consider to be the 'Con-socialist' party?

They most probably arent voting labour anyway.

That's fine - Labour doedsn't need them to. But every vote for ReformUK is one potentially one less for the Conservatives so helps Labour out.

Just to say as well, of course there will be many Tory '19 voters currently saying they don't know who they will vote for or will not vote, who will end up voting Tory in '24. However, many who voted Tory in '19, are acknowledged by the party itself, to have 'lent' their votes to the Tories. The reason why the red wall resonated / resonates so much is that prior to '19 these were not natural Tory areas. It's not like those voters who smashed the red wall in '19 are natural Tory voters looking for a reason, any reason to go back to their life-long party of allegiance. The red wall voting I've posted before clearly shows that those 'lent' votes don't look like they are going to be lent again.

[YorksHammer]

You wish.
It won't be about Sunak, however much the party might want that, it'll be about 12 years of the Tories. However much you or they might believe it's their true destiny to run the country, they look tired, washed out and disorganised......... and that's putting it nicely, I'd suggest it resembles more a third world kleptocracy.
Even the best regimes run out of steam(too many people forget what it's like to be challenged.)
It won't matter so much whether Tory votes switch to Labour or they just stay at home.... the game's up.

Thing is Tenbury, it becomes about perception. Labour will be hammering the 12 years thing, completely rightly and accurately, and some will see that. Sunak showing himself to be leading a party that a) is no longer in chaos (and they have a bit of time to work this out), and b) improving the economic state of the country (which, as pointed out, will come naturally because there simply can't be year on year 10% inflation) will be the Tory angle, I'm sure.

The 12 years thing holds a lot of weight for a lot of voters. It's the same thing that got Cameron/Clegg in in 2010, realistically, 13 years of Labour in power made the campaign straightforward for them especially given the global crash.

[DaveWHU1964]

Even the best regimes run out of steam(too many people forget what it's like to be challenged.)
It won't matter so much whether Tory votes switch to Labour or they just stay at home.... the game's up.

It's not guaranteed of course, but at this moment it feels that way Tenners. It feels like a tipping point has been reached. EDIT: Thinking about it, I'd say two actually if you can have two tipping points One associated with everything from Own Paterson onto Partygate and Johnson dragging his party through the mud. Since then, Labour has never been below 40% in the polls. The second one was Truss of course.

Your first sentence though is I think a biggie. After '19 we saw predictions that the Tories would pretty much rule forever with Labour in the wastelands for decades or forever. I think when you have that mentality it's hard to accept that just three years later things look very different. If my party had ruled for the the last decade and I had expected it to rule for many more years to come, I wouldn't want to acknowledge that that looked unlikely now, until the general election results slapped me hard around the face. I see some posting on here, as the equivalent of Man Utd fans and struggling to understand why their comfy, apparently unassailable place in the world had changed and they are no longer guaranteed to win trophies every season

That's why I put the polling stuff up - it tells us what our countries think and what is happening in the here and now, rather than what we each as individuals would like to be happening. All of these things add up. Young Conservative MPs are saying they will jack it in at the next election. Javid, a career politician who only this summer stood for the leadership is also standing down. About a dozen Labour MPs are standing down too but their average age is 71. Doesn't that tell us something about what even Tory politicians see their and their party's prospects apparently being?