The Sunak Government 2022-

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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by smuts »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63834307

Just posted so you can see the love child of Mark Noble and Draco Malfoy about halfway down...
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by Junco Partner »

If Sajid Javid feels a 23,000 majority in Bromsgrove may not be defendable and is cashing-out now it doesn't bode well for Sunak's chances.

For what it's worth I tend towards Sammy's line here though hope we're both off the mark. There's two years to go, two long years of our right-wing media going into overdrive with leftie bogeymen stories plus overturning a majority this size will be an unprecedented event. Johnson's lying excesses have already whittled the majority to 69, but even that is still a big ask.

However, there has been a spate of Tory MP's signalling they're not bothering next time out, so they are either reading the runes and concluding they're gonners, or have suddenly found a conscience and dislike tipping half the population into freezing poverty.

My fingers are crossed for a hung parliament, followed by massive electoral reform and 2024 being the last ever election under the barbaric FPTP system :fxd:
Last edited by Junco Partner on Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by Tenbury »

Labour must realise that as an election draws near, and like as not the Tories aren't doing so well, there will be much speculation over would be coalitions/pacts/so on. This could be devisive and lose them votes, or the reverse, either way they've got to play it carefully. Promising another indi vote in Scotland could be the price they pay, trouble is, if the votes Yes by definition they've lost their coalition!
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by Danny's Dyer Acting »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... mer-pledge

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... h-lib-dems

These were before the polls even suggested a chance of a workable majority for Labour.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by sendô »

Labour wont be seen to be doing deals with the SNP. They dont need to. Its an old Tory smear trick - vote Labour, get SNP.

Labour offering a credible alternative to the Tories by itself will get them votes and seats in Scotland. I honestly cant really see why the Jocks vote SNP in big numbers beyond the usual hate England rhetoric. All they do is blather on about independence when theyve already got one of the most powerful devolved parliaments in the world, yet do little to improve things for the average haggis botherer.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by Junco Partner »

Scottish polls show Labour climbing to seriously challenge the SNP in up to 20 seats. The SNP are on a downward curve right now, so Starmer doesn't have to do a thing other than, as he has done, rule out working with anyone who wants to break the country apart.

Anyway, back to the Tories....
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by Plashet Grove Pete »

sendô wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:50 am
Labour offering a credible alternative to the Tories by itself will get them votes and seats in Scotland. I honestly cant really see why the Jocks vote SNP in big numbers beyond the usual hate England rhetoric. All they do is blather on about independence when theyve already got one of the most powerful devolved parliaments in the world, yet do little to improve things for the average haggis botherer.
Plus they get lots and lots of English money, which is nice.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by DaveWHU1964 »

Tenbury wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:41 am Labour must realise that as an election draws near, and like as not the Tories aren't doing so well, there will be much speculation over would be coalitions/pacts/so on. This could be devisive and lose them votes, or the reverse, either way they've got to play it carefully. Promising another indi vote in Scotland could be the price they pay, trouble is, if the votes Yes by definition they've lost their coalition!
As has been said there won't be a coalition. If Labour don't have a majority there will be no need for one. What are the SNP going to do? Vote with the Tories against Labour? That would not go down well with the average SNP voter.

Besides how effective is the 'coalition of chaos' line going to be coming from an incompetent, train-wreck of a party who have achieved chaos all on their own without anybody else's help? Their 'best' days, as crap as they have been, were those in coalition with other parties. Give them what should be the absolute power of an 80 seat majority and chaos doesn't begin to describe it.

Of course they will play these cards for all they are worth but they are worth just a fraction of what they were in say, 2015. This as well as so many Tory attack lines are now shot.

From my perspective I want Labour to win a decent majority and then give the Scots a referendum - Scotland should have the option of independence, and freedom from being under control of an incompetent, corrupt, ideological,English nationalist political party it never votes for and who doesn't give a toss about it. Labour should introduce PR not because it has to but because it's right and from a position of power.

Would it? That's another question for another day and a chunk of its MPs would baulk at the idea for career saving reasons but the membership are in strongly favour of PR. A super tanker is being turned, just not as quickly as many would like.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by Plashet Grove Pete »

DaveWHU1964 wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 4:58 pm
From my perspective I want Labour to win a decent majority and then give the Scots a referendum - Scotland should have the option of independence, and freedom from being under control of an incompetent, corrupt, ideological,English nationalist political party it never votes for and who doesn't give a toss about it.
Agreed. And of course then Scotland can stand on it's own two feet and not rely on English money.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by sendô »

DaveWHU1964 wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 4:58 pm
From my perspective I want Labour to win a decent majority and then give the Scots a referendum
They had a “once in a generation” vote on independence just 8 years ago, and voted to remain attached to the English teat. Labour should not be seen to cow tow down to nationalist populists.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by MB »

:swear:

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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by bubbles1966 »

Does the Guardian really believe that an electorate appalled by 500k net migration is going to be appalled that the number isn't higher? :crylol:
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

MB wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 7:54 pm :swear:

It says 4 on the other thread. From that story
This is just taking way too long. The UNHCR have to do a refugee assessment in each case, if they are not even speeding up this process then they are not going to make a referral to the Home Office.
Are we not dealing with them or simply not getting them?
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by DaveWHU1964 »

sendô wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 5:46 pm They had a “once in a generation” vote on independence just 8 years ago, and voted to remain attached to the English teat. Labour should not be seen to cow tow down to nationalist populists.
It wouldn't be kowtowing to nationalists to, from (hopefully) the position of strength of a majority, where there can be no allegations that Labour are doing this to keep the SNP onside, give Scotland a referendum.

A significant part of the 2014 referendum campaign was the Scots being told by Cameron and co that if they voted leave then they'd be out of the EU, and would be unlikely to be able to rejoin it. Shortly after voting to remain in the UK, the same prime minister stupidly and carelessly set in process the whole of the UK leaving the EU.

62% of Scots and every single one of its regions voted to remain in the EU. They were told to vote remain in the UK to stay in the EU and then despite wanting to stay in it were, against their wishes kicked out of it because of England's decision. That's a huge change in circumstances. In my opinion, despite as you say, only eight years passing I believe they have a strong enough case to say that they were lied to and the vote was held on completely false premises. (And yes, that wasn't the only referendum that decade where the losing side could say the same thing).

Anyway, one of those posts and discussions that straddles about three different threads so 'll shut up now.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by bubbles1966 »

Labour are totally dependent on Tory voters being disgruntled in two years' time.

All the polls, including the real one at Chester, are being heavily influenced by Tory Stay At Homes. It's enormously distorting current readings.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by Tenbury »

I'm sure you're right. We'll all come to our senses soon, and realise what a damn good job they've been doing.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by YorksHammer »

Thing is, two years is a long time. The energy cap will decrease in that time, with Cornwall Insight suggesting it'll fall by roughly £1000 in 2023 (https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predic ... e-the-epg/). Inflation will naturally fall in the next year because its spiked this year, so continued small(er) price increases will be a lower percentage.

It's not even a case of them doing a good job - very naturally these things will shift. And with the targets of Johnson - Covid handling, corruption, Downing Street parties - and Truss - mini-budget, mortgage rate rises - replaced by Sunak who will be there while these things are seen to improve, it's going to be harder for Starmer and Labour to hammer this Government on the things that have happened.

I'm not sure they'll fully recover in the polls to win the next election, but I'm sure they'll perform better than the polls in the last 5/6 months have suggested.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by MB »

Agreed Yorks. As the saying goes, two weeks is a long time in politics so two years is a lifetime!

The “not them” bounce will die down as the factors you’ve pointed to stop being in play and Labour’s policies get the media treatment.

But you can almost guarantee a few more acts of self harm from the conservatives before the next election as well. They are a party held together by self interest now their main common aim has been achieved (though not it seems in the way any of them wanted it to be).

We’ve not seen that from Labour (yet?) and we’ll see as things get closer to E-Day how successful the purge of the extreme left was.
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by Tenbury »

It's already less than 2 years. They look like they want to take on the nurses..... that'll go down well.
Unless there are huge developments either way in Ukraine (either a settlement or escalation directly involving NATO) that's stiil going to be a big factor 12 months from now. And, given the evidence of the last few years, does anyone really believe that Redwood/JRM&Co are going to give Sunak an easy ride?
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Re: The Sunak Government 2022-

Post by Junco Partner »

Think that's the Sunak's biggest headache Tenners, he has a 69 majority which sounds sufficient to get whatever he needs doing done, but he's also got about 80 mad-dog zealots who've had the run of the party since 2016 and would bring his government down in a blink if they sniff any heresy.

There's even the detritus of the Truss-Kwarteng libertarian nut-jobs brooding about the place like dismayed revolutionaries appalled at the sell out.

Means he's snookered. Means he's hostage to their nimbyism for vital things like house building and on-shore power generation, and their backward views on taxation and economics. He can't get anything worthwhile done even if he was so inclined.
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