Where are the points coming from?

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Burnley Hammer
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Where are the points coming from?

Post by Burnley Hammer »

Going back a decade, 38 points has been enough to avoid relegation. We currently have 18.

Can we find 20 points from this lot? That's 6 wins and 2 draws, or 5 wins and 5 draws.

We can't continue on relying on the worst teams in the league for wins. That isn't going to get us enough points. We need to start learning how to beat the better teams. I know some people like to bang on about our record against the top 4... but in the last 12 months we've struggled to pick up a win against anyone in the top two thirds of the table, home or away. This needs to change pronto.

Newcastle (A)
Chelsea (H)
Tottenham (A)
Nottingham Forest (H)
Brighton (A)
Aston Villa (H)
Manchester City (A)
Southampton (H)
Fulham (A)
Arsenal (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Liverpool (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Manchester United (H)
Brentford (A)
Leeds (H)
Leicester (A)
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S-H
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by S-H »

Burnley Hammer wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 10:15 am

Newcastle (A) 1
Chelsea (H) 3
Tottenham (A) 1
Nottingham Forest (H) 3
Brighton (A) 0
Aston Villa (H) 3
Manchester City (A) 0
Southampton (H) 3
Fulham (A) 1
Arsenal (H) 0
Bournemouth (A) 3
Liverpool (H) 1
Crystal Palace (A) 1
Manchester United (H) 0
Brentford (A) 0
Leeds (H) 3
Leicester (A) 1
Six wins
Six draws
Five defeats

24pts + 18pts = 42pts.

Going to be bloody tight.

Closer to the wire than many on here think.

-----------------------------------------------------


Edit: Newcastle (H) 1

Six wins
Seven draws
Five defeats

25pts + 18pts = 43pts.
Last edited by S-H on Wed Feb 01, 2023 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by Burnley Hammer »

S-H wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 10:21 am Six wins
Six draws
Five defeats

24pts + 18pts = 42pts.

Going to be bloody tight.

Closer to the wire than many on here think.
And I'm not even sure about some of those you have down as wins. Aston Villa have won 3 and drawn 1 from their last 4 league games, and Forest have won 2, drawn 2. It's going to be tough.
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by S-H »

Burnley Hammer wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 10:26 am And I'm not even sure about some of those you have down as wins. Aston Villa have won 3 and drawn 1 from their last 4 league games, and Forest have won 2, drawn 2. It's going to be tough.
Neither am I, to be honest.

Not looking good, is it?
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by brownout »

Newcastle (A) 0
Chelsea (H) 1
Tottenham (A 0)
Nottingham Forest (H) 3
Brighton (A) 0
Aston Villa (H) 3
Manchester City (A) 0
Southampton (H) 3
Fulham (A) 1
Arsenal (H) 0
Bournemouth (A) 1
Liverpool (H) 0
Crystal Palace (A) 1
Manchester United (H) 0
Brentford (A) 1
Leeds (H) 3
Leicester (A) 1

There's also Newcastle home still to be arranged.
1 point from that.

That's 19 points to leave us on 37.
Just about enough?
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by Coops »

I think it's going to come down to Leicester on the last day of the season.
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by Burnley Hammer »

brownout wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 10:29 am That's 19 points to leave us on 37.
Just about enough?
With a bit of luck - it's been enough in a number of previous seasons.
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by Kermit »

Mrs Kermit gets points on her clubcard account when she shops at Tescos.

Does that help ?
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by ParkersHere »

Burnley Hammer wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 10:15 am
Newcastle (A) 1
Chelsea (H). 3
Tottenham (A). 1
Nottingham Forest (H). 3
Brighton (A). 0
Aston Villa (H). 3
Manchester City (A). 0
Southampton (H). 3
Fulham (A). 1
Arsenal (H) 0
Bournemouth (A). 3
Liverpool (H) 1
Crystal Palace (A) 1
Manchester United (H) 0
Brentford (A) 0
Leeds (H) 3
Leicester (A) 1
6 wins
6 draws

A bit optimistic and we will need to keep CB fit and get Ings back
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by Kermit »

brownout wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 10:29 am Newcastle (A) 0
Chelsea (H) 1
Tottenham (A 0)
Nottingham Forest (H) 3
Brighton (A) 0
Aston Villa (H) 3
Manchester City (A) 0
Southampton (H) 3
Fulham (A) 1
Arsenal (H) 0
Bournemouth (A) 1
Liverpool (H) 0
Crystal Palace (A) 1
Manchester United (H) 0
Brentford (A) 1
Leeds (H) 3
Leicester (A) 1

There's also Newcastle home still to be arranged.
1 point from that.

That's 19 points to leave us on 37.
Just about enough?
Reading through those points predictions I realise how fortunate I am to be a pessimist. Optimists tend to get kicked in the cojones time and again whereas those of us who see only disaster after disaster unfolding occasionally get a ray of sunshine through the clouds.

I agree we should be able to muster wins at home against Forest, Leeds and Southampton and, let's be frank, if we can't we deserve to go down. But Unai Emery has reinvigorated Villa so I can't see anything coming our way from that game. And a few overly optimistic draws on our travels I fear. Still, I have to say, I admire your optimism. But make sure your cojones are well protected mate.
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by funky chicken »

We’re missing one more fixture! :) We’ve still got to play Newcastle at home too.

Newcastle (A) - Draw
Chelsea (H) - Win
Tottenham (A) - Lose
Nottingham Forest (H) - Win
Brighton (A) - Lose
Aston Villa (H) - Win
Manchester City (A) - Lose
Southampton (H) - Win
Fulham (A) - Draw
Arsenal (H) - Lose
Bournemouth (A) - Win
Liverpool (H) - Draw
Crystal Palace (A) - Win
Manchester United (H) - Lose
Brentford (A) - Lose
Leeds (H) - Win
Leicester (A) - Draw

Newcastle (H) - Draw

44 points, if I have calculated correctly. Some results may be subject to change though, depending on how far we go in both cup competitions.

The biggest guaranteed defeats away from home are the Spuds (unfortunately), Man City and Brighton. The first 2 because Moyes is incapable of winning away to top 6 clubs (in the league) and Brighton because it’s Brighton.

The likely home defeats will be the Gooners and Man Utd always seem to have a jammy bit of luck against us. I’d fancy us against Chelsea and Liverpool though, with the majority of our squad available and playing to their best.
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by Absolutely Hammered! »

I guess if we had this list for all bottom 8 teams we'd find some comfort in that.
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by Crouchend_Hammer »

We are in the same boat as the other teams down there
We all have the same teams to play
FWIW i think we will get more points than three of them
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by Noble Man »

S-H wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 10:21 am Six wins
Six draws
Five defeats

24pts + 18pts = 42pts.

Going to be bloody tight.

Closer to the wire than many on here think.
Can't see us getting 8 in our next 4 games - at a push i'd say it'll be 4. That will make it even more of a squeaky bum time. Reckon it'll go right to the wire
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by wolf359 »

Burnley Hammer wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 10:15 am
Newcastle (A) 0
Chelsea (H) 0
Tottenham (A) 0
Nottingham Forest (H) 1
Brighton (A) 0
Aston Villa (H) 3
Manchester City (A) 0
Southampton (H) 0
Fulham (A) 1
Arsenal (H) 3
Bournemouth (A) 0
Liverpool (H) 0
Crystal Palace (A) 0
Manchester United (H) 0
Brentford (A) 0
Leeds (H) 1
Leicester (A) 0
9 points and relegation await us. Some of you seem bloody optimistic, have you seen us play this season?
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by Burnley Hammer »

We have 12 wins since the 1st January 2022.

Half of these have been against teams who were between 16th and 20th in the league at the time we played them. Only 3 of them were in the top 10 (and none of those in the top 5).
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by S-H »

I think relegation is a very realistic scenario, more so than many are willing to admit I reckon.

Today is the first time I've gone through the remaining fixtures, and although the threat of relegation has been lurking in the background like a bad smell, I never really believed we were in true danger of dropping..

Bit of an eye opener, that's for sure.
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by sendô »

Don't worry, come the end of the season the mid table teams have nothing to play for and start giving up the points. So Palace, Brentford, Leeds and Leicester all look good shouts there.

Plus Villa and Fulham tend to be generous with us.
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by Lovejoy »

I can’t believe some think we’re gonna get 40+ points from here on in. We look woeful week on week, out of us & Southampton who finish bottom. I think we’ll end up anywhere between 30-33.
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Re: Where are the points coming from?

Post by Jedi Al Khalaas »

It will be a anxious hand wringing rest of season , but these players performances will only get better as they learn to tough it through

I am confident
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